KATHMANDU, March 26: The National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates that Nepal's population will increase by 4.3 million by the year 2108. Based on the five thematic reports related to the National Census 2021, which the office released on Tuesday, it projects that Nepal's population will reach 33.5 million by 2108.
The 2021 census shows that Nepal's current population stands at 29.2 million. The five released thematic reports cover fertility rate, internal migration, international migration, demographic dividend, and population projections for 2021-2108.
The 2021 census shows that Nepal's average annual population growth rate is 1.94. The NSO projects that this growth rate will decline to between 0.35 and 0.55 over the next three decades, according to the public thematic report.
Dhundi Raj Lamichhane, the Deputy Chief Statistician and Spokesperson for the NSO, explained that the current fertility rate is not at replacement level, meaning it is insufficient to replace parents with children. As a result, the population growth is expected to remain slow even after 30 years. Lamichhane also highlighted that more young people are getting married only after becoming financially independent.
Lamichhane said, "As both husband and wife need to work, many people are choosing not to have children as much as possible, contributing to the decline in population." He further explained, "In 2009 BS, women gave birth to 45 to 50 children during their reproductive years (15-49 years), but by the 2021 census, this number has decreased to 14.2. This decline reflects improvements in health services, the effectiveness of family planning programs, and advancements in economic development."
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He added that as the country progresses, the number of youth leaving for foreign countries also increases. He said that parents no longer wish to have children who can replace them, which is likely to cause a continued decline in population growth rates in the future. Lamichhane pointed out that this is the first time the government has made such a projection for Nepal.
Decline in the highest fertility age
Age-specific fertility trends reflect changes across all age groups. Analyzing trends from 2001 to 2021, researchers observed a significant decline in the fertility rate among women in the 25-39 age group. In 2001, the fertility rate for women in adolescence (15-19 years) was 71 per thousand, but it decreased to 47 per thousand by 2021. This decline primarily highlights improvements in educational status in Nepal.
The fertility rate among women in the reproductive age, especially in the 20-24 age group, remains the highest but has decreased from 203 per thousand in 2001 to 149 per thousand by 2021. Lamichhane said, "The fertility rate among women in the highest reproductive age group is also declining, and the fertility rate among adolescent women is concerning." He added, "In particular, provinces like Madhes (8.5 per thousand women) and Karnali (7.5 per thousand women), where early marriage and low education levels contribute to this situation, have been affected."
According to the medium scenario, the birth rate in 2021 of 527,000 births is projected to decrease to 368,000 by 2108, showing a 30.2 percent decrease. The projection also indicates that the total fertility rate will remain at 1.72, and the average age for having children will be 29.2 years.
Men's life expectancy is lower than women's
According to the projected mortality trends, life expectancy for both women and men will improve. However, Lamichhane, while presenting the report, stated that the gender gap will persist, with men's life expectancy remaining shorter than women's. Specifically, the medium scenario projects the number of elderly individuals over 70 years old to reach 306,000 deaths by 2108. The average life expectancy is expected to rise from 72 to 77 years by 2108.
The population projection exercise also examines the absent population, their migration patterns, the duration of their stay, and the likelihood of their return. A significant portion of the absent population falls in the 20-40 age group, with men comprising the majority. The projected absent population in 2078 is 1.82 million, and it is estimated to grow to 2.5 million by 2108.
In a public ceremony, Suman Aryal, the Secretary of the National Planning Commission, praised the NSO for its work. He stated that this year's census, by releasing a large number of thematic reports in a short time, has facilitated policy-making in various sectors. Aryal said, "The data provided by the census, along with sectoral and thematic studies, has made it easier to design programs based on information gathered through collaboration between local and provincial governments." He also mentioned, "We have started implementing the 16th Plan."
Bikash Devkota, the Secretary of the Ministry of Health and Population, said that the census data will make it easier for the state to manage resources and assets. He explained that, according to the data, more youth are migrating abroad, particularly through marriage, which complicates the design of effective programs. "The challenge for Nepal has increased as young people migrate abroad and return with illnesses," Devkota said. "The active population has decreased, while the dependent population has grown. By studying the census data, we will advance health policies and programs in a new direction. The ministry will focus on creating equity-based programs."
At the event, Dr Federica Di Battista, a representative of the British Embassy in Kathmandu, and Won Yong-Hong, a representative of UNFPA, highlighted that the growing elderly population and declining number of children are positive from a development perspective, but they present challenges for population management.