Geopolitics Casts a Shadow Over Climate Crisis Efforts
KATHMANDU, Nov 11: The Azerbaijani capital city of Baku will be playing host to an estimated 50,000 delegates from around the world, including the heads of states and governments, climate scientists, thought leaders and environmental and climate activists representing 200 countries. The conference, which will run until November 22, comes at a time of intensified climate urgency and shifting global dynamics.
The US President Joe Biden; French President Emmanuel Macron; European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; and Brazillian President LuizInácio Lula da Silva will be conspicuously absent at the conference. Chinese President Xi Xin Ping and Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi are two other notable absentees.
The conference of the the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCc), is set in a drastically changed global geopolitical scenario: While carbon emissions and temperature rise have set new records in the world, the climate change has induced an increased number of floods, landslides, droughts and other crises across the globe.
The COP-28 held in Dubai last year had decided to transition away from the use of fossil fuels. But the efforts made by the governments of the world in the direction of setting and implementing ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions fall short of expectation.
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After Donald Trump, who has been dismissive of climate change and global warming, won the presidency of the United States last week, doubts have arisen as to how global solidarity and cooperation on climate change will take a new course.
Scientists, meanwhile, have been continuously voicing the concern that the climate crisis is deepening. On the eve of COP-29, scientific reports released by the International Meteorological Organization and other organizations have shown that the crisis caused by climate change has increased in recent years and that the world's efforts in climate mitigation, adaptation and climate resilience are insufficient.
In this context, the discussions and decisions to be made at the Baku Conference on climate finance, capacity building and technology transfer, which are necessary for the prevention of the global climate crisis and the coastal countries that are at high risk of climate change, including mountainous countries like Nepal, are considered important for increasing the capacity to withstand the climate crisis.
After his election in 2016, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change. He has stated that his position remains unchanged in his second term.
Trump terms climate change as a hoax, raising questions about the future role of the United States, ranked second in the list of carbon emitters. Carbon emission is considered to be largely responsible for climate change. The withdrawal of the United States may influence the success of the conference in the context of determining the new goals of climate finance needed for climate action and securing financial resources.
Climate campaigner and Director of Fossil Fuel Nonproliferation Treaty Initiative Harjeet Singh said that the issue of America's withdrawal will be the key concern at the conference. "The climate crisis has reached a more serious stage due to the imprudence of America and other rich countries of the world. We have little time left to avert the climate crisis. At a time like this, a country like America cannot escape from its role," Singh posted on his social network X, previously known as Twitter.
Raju Pandit Khetri, a Nepali climate expert and a member of the Nepal negotiating team, believes that along with the role of Europe and the US, the role of China and India has increased in the climate talks, and there is a possibility that these two neighboring countries of Nepal can take the lead.
Political parties that do not believe in climate change appear to be taking the centrestage in some European Countries, including Sweden, France, Germany and the Netherlands, Chhetri said. "This can have an impact on efforts to address climate change." The European Union and the United States have been pressuring China and Arab countries to make mandatory contributions to climate finance.
Focus on Climate Finance
Climate finance has been prioritized by the Paris Agreement to drive climate action. But despite that, the financial flow for climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience is much less than expected. The Baku Conference aims to set new New Collective Quantified Goals on Climate Finance (NCQG) for green energy transition and climate adaptation and identify sources of such finance. It is estimated that at least 500 billion to 1 trillion US dollars are needed every year for developing countries to deal with the climate crisis. This amount is several times more than the 100 billion US dollars that the international community has promised to provide annually. Discussions and homework will be held in the conference on how to collect such a large amount of money from the government, private sector, multilateral development fund and other sources. Along with this, the damage and loss fund established last year should also be considered an integral part of the NCQG, it is argued by the developing countries.
"The COP 29 President calls this conference a finance COP, and it can be expected that progress will be made towards setting a new goal of climate finance and achieving it," said Maheshwar Dhakal, joint secretary of the Ministry of Forests and Environment, currently in Baku to participate in the conference.
Global carbon emissions reached 40.6 trillion tons last year. This year, that record is likely to be broken. Carbon in the atmosphere has increased by 50 percent compared to the period of the industrial revolution, i.e. almost 250 years ago. This has challenged the goal of limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees by the end of this century. The current increase in global temperature is unlikely to stop in the near future.
