TOKYO, Oct 4: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is set to choose a new leader Saturday to replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, hoping the change will help the party recover from a string of election defeats and slipping public support, AP reported.
The LDP has lost ground in both houses of parliament over the past year, leaving it in the minority. Despite setbacks, the party remains the largest in the more powerful lower house, which selects the prime minister. That means whoever wins the party presidency will almost certainly take over the premiership, according to AP.
Five contenders are in the race, AP noted and added that the leading figures are Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who could become Japan’s youngest leader in over a century, former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, who would be the first woman to serve as prime minister, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, a centrist veteran.
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Two others, Trade Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Economic Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, are seen as longshots, AP stated.
The outcome will be determined by 295 LDP lawmakers and about one million dues-paying members, making up just a fraction of Japan’s electorate. No candidate is expected to secure a first-round majority, setting the stage for a runoff between the top two contenders. That second round is likely to be influenced by party heavyweights, AP reported.
The winner will face an immediate challenge: a parliamentary vote in mid-October and a potential summit with U.S. President Donald Trump by the end of the month. Trump, traveling to South Korea for the APEC meeting starting October 31, is expected to press Tokyo to raise its defense spending. Opposition leaders have already accused the LDP of creating a political vacuum during its leadership struggles, AP stated.
Beyond foreign policy, the new leader will need to manage fragile domestic politics. The LDP has relied on its partnership with the centrist Komeito party, but it may now need to court other opposition groups, long sidelined by the ruling conservatives. All five contenders describe themselves as “moderate conservatives,” signaling an openness to wider cooperation, according to AP.
Campaign messages have focused on economic and security concerns, including fighting rising prices, raising wages, and tightening defense. All candidates avoided divisive social debates such as gender equality and LGBTQ rights, as well as the political fundraising scandal that damaged the party and fueled its election losses. Analysts told AP that this silence raises doubts about whether the LDP can truly regain public trust.
Experts cited by AP also noted that candidates have carefully steered clear of historical disputes and other long-running controversies. Their avoidance, some argued, reflects a party still unsure how to confront its past and reconnect with voters after setbacks that ended decades of near-unbroken dominance.
The leadership vote, while limited in scope, will shape Japan’s political trajectory at a time of domestic unease and regional tension. Whoever emerges will carry the task of repairing the party’s image while navigating sensitive ties with Washington, AP reported.
