‘Balen card’ sends ripples through Madhesh Politics

KATHMANDU, Jan 19: In India’s Bihar Assembly election, one name dominated headlines—PK, or Prashant Kishor. He undertook a 3,500-kilometer foot march with a mission to transform Bihar, making it the centerpiece of his campaign. Yet, despite widespread popularity, PK failed to secure enough votes and suffered a decisive defeat—proving that a popular face and agenda alone do not guarantee electoral victory.

Fast forward to Nepal, where the House of Representatives (HoR) election is set for March 5. In Madhesh, another name is generating buzz: Balendra Shah (Balen). Born in a small village in Mahottari, Balen has become almost a local of Kathmandu. He rose to prominence after being elected Mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City in 2022 as an independent candidate. His attire, personality, and unconventional style have become a “brand” among young voters. Rarely appearing in person for the media, Balen relies on social media to express himself, with statements often going viral and stirring debates. His behind-the-scenes leadership of the Gen Z movement in September 2022 is still widely discussed.

With Balen now contesting under the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) banner, his profile has skyrocketed. He resigned from the mayoral post on Sunday to file his candidacy. His first public political event post-resignation is scheduled in Janakpur, the capital of Madhesh Province, on Madhesh Martyrs’ Day (January 19), honoring those who sacrificed during the Madhesh movement. He is expected to announce his candidacy there, although his constituency remains undecided.

From roadside tea stalls to village squares, conversations about Balen are everywhere. Many view him as a popular figure. Phulgen Yadav, 65, from the border village of Jatahi, Dhanusha, said, “My family recognizes Balen’s name. His scholarship initiative for SEE students in Kathmandu greatly impressed my grandson. But a relative of mine, a street vendor in Kathmandu, refuses to hear his name—he thinks Balen is a threat to employment.”

Yadav added, “I haven’t heard him speak in our language, Maithili. I haven’t heard him call himself Madhesi or a son of Madhesh. But I’ve heard he’s coming to Janakpur. I want to hear his speech and see if he shows Madhesi identity.” Some unemployed people have even traveled from Kathmandu to Janakpur just to hear him speak. “We aren’t promising to vote for him; we just want to hear his first public address,” he said.

“History could change”

Political analyst Tula Narayan Sah believes this election could be historic. He notes that in past elections following major movements, votes often favored the movement-aligned side. After the 2005 NC movement, NC won the 2015 election. Following the 2046 BS movement, NC and UML held elections in 2048 BS, with NC winning the majority. After the 2062/63 BS movement, the CPN (Maoist Centre) gained many seats in the 2064 BS Constituent Assembly elections, while Madhesh-centric parties dominated locally. After the 2072 BS constitution, the UML-Maoist Centre coalition won the 2074 federal election, yet Madhesh parties maintained local dominance.

Sah says, “Even though no one led the Gen Z movement, Balen was its face.” Having toured Madhesh recently, he observed, “Balen is popular in villages. People see him as honest, corruption-free, and action-oriented.” Another reason for his appeal is the scholarship initiative, which helped capable students from poor communities in Kathmandu access top colleges—an achievement that resonated in Madhesh as well. These factors give Balen a broader appeal beyond ethnicity or geography. The Gen Z agenda—controlling corruption, promoting good governance, and generational transition—also shapes how Madhesh sees him.

“Popularity doesn’t fill ballot boxes”

Analyst Chandra Kishore Jha warns that buzz alone isn’t enough. “Balen is in the news, but whether RSP can convert this attention into votes remains to be seen. Popularity and winning votes are very different,” he said. Jha added that merely being of Madheshi origin won’t secure votes unless Balen demonstrates a credible connection to the region and addresses local grievances.

RSP presents Balen as a future prime minister and a Madheshi face. But Jha notes, “Even Madheshi-origin presidents and vice presidents haven’t brought transformation. Real change comes through vision, process, and systems—not just identity or lineage.” Jha also cautioned that Balen’s image as a “harsh reformer” in Kathmandu—seen among street vendors, rickshaw drivers, and homeless people—could alienate Madheshi laborers.

RSP’s organization in Madhesh is weak, and local politics is deeply tied to regional identity. A key challenge is whether RSP can manage identity politics while promoting federalism and inclusion. Jha said, “Popularity alone doesn’t win elections; it must be translated into votes, and RSP’s weak network makes that difficult.” Additionally, positioning Balen as a “Madheshi face” risks losing traditional hill votes.

Population and voters

Madhesh Province has eight districts and 32 constituencies for the HoR elections. According to the Madhesh Province Election Office:

Male voters: 1,972,964

Female voters: 1,663,374

Gender/other minorities: 76

Total voters: 3,636,414 (59.47% of the province’s population)

Population (2078 BS Census): 6,114,600

District-wise voter count:

Dhanusha: 514,571 (59.30% of 867,000)

Sarlahi: 511,606 (59.32%)

Bara: 465,784 (61.04%)

Siraha: 453,645 (61.31%)