Nepal’s neighbors, China and India, are at the forefront of the global power shift from the Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific region. As the world’s second and fifth largest economies, respectively, China and India are central to this transformation shaping the 21st century as the “Asian century.” Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is on a visit to China at a time of global uncertainty and rapidly shifting geo-strategic landscape marked by an intense rivalry between the United States and China for global dominance.
Nepal's foreign policy prioritizes maintaining strong ties with its immediate neighbors, India and China. Nepal’s close relations with India are independent of its growing relations with China. Prime Minister Oli’s decision to visit China, seen as a deviation from the traditional practice of visiting India first, has stirred debates, concerns and controversies. Addressing these concerns, the Prime Minister has reaffirmed Nepal’s deep-rooted historical and cultural ties with India that predate the formation of modern states, emphasizing that foreign visits are made at mutual convenience. PM Oli met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New York on the sidelines of 79th UN General Assembly.
China shares borders with 14 countries. The Himalayas, described by great Sanskrit poet Kalidasa as devatma (divine personality), stand as a geographic boundary between Nepal and China. As a rising global power, China knows the importance of a friendly neighborhood to be able to exercise global leadership. Until China’s transformative economic growth, it was lying low under Deng Xiaoping’s dictum, “bide your time and hide your capacity,” in the global geopolitics. China’s unprecedented transformation has fundamentally reshaped that approach under President Xi Jinping.
Until 1990, China and India were at comparable stages of development. China’s rapid economic growth has allowed it to expand its political, military and technological footprints globally as reflected in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) described as “the project of the century.” Beijing has made considerable inroads in South Asia eroding to an extent the Indian traditional strategy of limiting external powers’ involvement in the region. It has established itself as one of the most formidable global powers. In South Asia, China wields asymmetrical influence through its military and economic might. As Western powers work to deepen their engagements in the region, China doubles down its efforts to counterbalance and contain their presence.
Prime Minister's China visit a complete success: Foreign Minist...
Nepal’s neighbors view the Himalayan frontiers as of heightened strategic significance to their national security. British India sought access to Tibet through Nepal’s Himalayas. India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru spoke of the Himalayas as being the “magnificent frontiers,” of security. However, given the advancement of technology and rapidly shifting geopolitical, geo-economic geo-technical developments, that concept no longer holds. Emerging from an isolationist foreign policy of the pre-1950 era, Nepal has so far established and maintained its diplomatic relations with more than 183 countries.
Nepal’s immediate neighbors, and ‘third’ neighbor the USA on the “other side of the globe” bring their competing and conflicting interests, heightening the sensitivity and complexity of Nepal’s foreign policy. This underscores the profound forces at play, sparking significant concerns and evoking strong reactions in their respective capitals. Given the renewed Western interests in Tibetan affairs and nominees for foreign policy and security team, widely considered to be “strident China hawks” of the incoming US administration, strategic competition with China seems set to heighten, underscoring Nepal’s strategic importance in the China, India, and the US triangular rivalry.
Nepal stands truly non-aligned with either of its neighbors or any powers. Every nation has the right to look for opportunities and stay close to neighbors. Nepal’s neighbors fully understand the compulsion of its geographical settings. Way back in the 1960s, Chinese leaders counseled Nepal to be “friendly with India without being hostile to China.” There is no question of Nepal taking any sides between its two neighbors, leave alone the question of “playing cards.” Nepal fully knows that it would be too great a risk to “play cards” and take sides.
President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Nepal in October 2019- the first in 23 years by a Chinese head of state - marked a significant moment in Nepal-China relations. The visit elevated “Nepal-China Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation Featuring Ever-lasting Friendship to Strategic Partnership of Cooperation Featuring Ever-lasting Friendship for Development and Prosperity.” Xi pledged to transform Nepal from a landlocked nation to land-linked. They also agreed to accelerate the building of “the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network” through connectivity projects including ports, highways, railways, aviation and communications, under the BRI. Over a dozen agreements signed during the visit remain unimplemented. They need to be taken up on a priority basis.
On the day of departure from Nepal, President Xi chose to make a pointed comment that anyone attempting to "split" China would suffer "crushed bodies and shattered bones." This statement underscored Beijing’s increasing concerns over Nepal’s handling of Tibetan refugees and the potential for anti-China activities within its borders. China wanted to sign an extradition treaty that could allow repatriating Tibetan refugees transiting from Nepal. China would definitely seek Nepal’s firm assurances and actions on this.
The play of geopolitical power is often draped in gentler, and friendlier postures adorned with phrases like “mutual benefit,” “mutual cooperation,” “shared prosperity” and “meeting basic needs,” “promoting green energy,” “transferring skills” and “democratic freedoms.” One should not be swayed away by polished phrases. Nations must learn from the past: foreign aid/loan that is disconnected from national realities, gets the country drowned in debt. China’s approach is marked by ‘greater sophistication and subtlety,’ underpinned by a well-thought out long-term foreign policy strategy. Therefore, a rigorous cost and benefit analysis must precede the signing of any projects with broader strategic and geopolitical ramifications.
Nepal needs to do its homework properly, fix priorities, separate vital interests from vivid, take a broader picture, with an objective assessment of emerging trends of unfolding developments that are likely to have implications for our national interests. Without thorough homework, meetings get confined to goodwill “talks,” not “negotiation.”
Speaking with one voice brings clarity, consistency and credibility in foreign policy. Nepal has a very tight rope to walk in its diplomacy and must show strategic foresight. Lack of national unity, late BP Koirala, warned way back in 1976, might pave the way for “foreign intrigues” in the country to make Nepal a “center of international conspiracy.” Leadership’s trustworthiness, selflessness, and pragmatism go a long way in erasing the gap between the prophecy and practice, and carving an honorable place for the country. Any mistakes, misunderstandings and miscalculations will have far-reaching implications for Nepal’s future.
