POKHARA, Dec 13: Nepal recorded its highest number of tourist arrivals in 2019. Government figures show that a total of 1.197 million foreign visitors entered Nepal that year. However, the onset of the coronavirus pandemic caused a sharp decline in tourist arrivals, leaving the sector in a state of crisis.
The impact of the pandemic on tourism was evident from early 2020 as fears of infection began to grow. Globally and in Nepal, travel restrictions and lockdowns significantly affected tourist movements. As a result, the total number of foreign visitors dropped to just 230,085 in 2020. Although arrivals in the first two months of that year—January and February—were relatively steady, the numbers plummeted sharply from March onward.
In April 2020, during the peak lockdown period, arrivals fell to a mere 14—the lowest since Nepal began recording tourist statistics. The tourism sector came to a near standstill due to the persistent fear of infection. In 2021, Nepal received a total of 150,962 foreign visitors, with numbers improving slightly after October.
The recovery gained momentum in 2022, with 614,869 foreign visitors recorded. By 2023, the numbers further improved, reaching 1,014,882, signaling a significant revival of Nepal's tourism sector.
UN Tourism, which monitors global arrivals of international tourists, has also analyzed the figures for 2019 as the highest for arrivals so far. According to UN Tourism, the COVID-19 pandemic affected the tourism sector, which was severely impacted by the drop in arrivals since 2019, but it has shown remarkable recovery, reaching 98 percent globally by September 2024.
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According to UN Tourism data, global tourist arrivals in 2020 were only 28 percent of the 2019 figures. This improved slightly to 31 percent in 2021 and further to 67 percent in 2022. The recovery accelerated to 89 percent in 2023 and reached 98 percent by September 2024.
The decreasing impact of COVID-19 on the global tourism industry has also positively influenced Nepal. Nepal Tourism Board Director Maniraj Lamichhane said that tourist arrivals in Nepal had recovered to 96.3 percent of the 2019 levels by November 2024.
“Analyzing 2019 as the baseline year, arrivals had declined significantly in the following years but have now improved by 96.3 percent,” said Lamichhane, “The global increase in tourism activity has positively impacted Nepal as well.”
At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts anticipated it would take several years for the tourism sector to recover to pre-2019 levels. By 2024, that recovery has largely been realized.
“We had expected Nepal’s tourism to exceed its 2019 levels by 2024. However, due to some developments this year, arrivals were affected, and the target could not be met,” said Lamichhane, “We have no option but to wait until 2025 for arrivals to surpass those of 2019. Only then will Nepal’s tourist numbers finally set a new record.”
Analyzing the current data and projections, Lamichhane estimated that Nepal’s tourism will achieve only 95 percent of its 2019 levels in 2024. “Compared to 2019, Nepal is expected to recover only 95 percent this year. Events over the past four months, including recent air and ground accidents, floods, and other disruptions, have significantly impacted foreign tourist arrivals,” he said.
He further noted that the ongoing upgrades at the Tribhuvan International Airport, Nepal’s main gateway for tourism, also contributed to the decline in arrivals.
“Arrivals have been declining monthly since August, with a drop of approximately 40,000 over the last four months. December is not expected to meet projections either,” Lamichhane said, “Had these incidents not occurred, Nepal’s tourism would have set a new record this year. Unfortunately, that did not happen.”
According to Lamichhane, only 1.125 million tourists are expected to visit Nepal in 2024. He also highlighted regional trends, stating that tourism in the Middle East has grown by 29 percent compared to 2019. Europe has achieved a full recovery, exceeding 2019 levels by 1 percent, while Africa has seen a 6 percent improvement. Tourism in the US has remained steady at 97 percent of 2019 levels, while Asia’s tourism sector has recovered to only 85 percent so far.
“Nepal has not been able to achieve the expected number of Chinese tourists,” said Lamichhane, “Which has impacted the overall net profit from tourist arrivals.” He said that in 2019, Chinese tourists accounted for 14 percent of total arrivals, but that figure has now dropped to just 9 percent.
“Despite falling short in increasing Chinese arrivals, Nepal has been able to meet broader goals,” Lamichhane said. He highlighted several factors affecting tourism, including wars in various countries, economic downturns, seasonal disruptions, the impact of climate change, and rising airfares.
Industry stakeholders have also expressed concerns about the lower-than-expected tourist arrivals. They noted that even during peak seasons, the numbers did not meet projections.
“We could not fully experience the main season because the arrivals were not as anticipated,” said Hari Sharma, president of the Hotel Association Nepal, Gandaki, “While the numbers might seem adequate, destinations like Pokhara did not feel the impact.”
Sharma further said that their initial assessment suggests the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism will persist until the end of 2024.
