As tensions flare once again between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam incident and India’s retaliatory Operation Sindoor, the geopolitical reverberations are being felt across the region—including in Nepal. Against this context, Republica’s Editor Kosh Raj Koirala spoke with security analyst Chiran Jung Thapa, who has a background in national security, counter-terrorism and crisis management, to unpack the implications of this escalation for Nepal’s economy, security and diplomacy. From the risks facing thousands of Nepalis serving in the Indian armed forces to potential disruptions in trade, border security, and regional stability, Thapa outlines the range of scenarios Nepal must prepare for. He also calls for urgent contingency planning and a more proactive, balanced diplomatic posture to navigate the growing volatility in South Asia. Excerpts:
What impact could the renewed escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan as a result of the Pahalgam incident and the subsequent India’s operation Sindoor have on Nepal and what kind of contingencies should we prepare for?
The escalating tensions between India and Pakistan could have significant implications for Nepal. Given our geographical proximity to India in particular, anything that happens there will have a direct or inadvertent impact on us. Nepal relies heavily on trade routes through India for imports and exports. If there is protracted warfare, it could result in stricter border controls, closures of airspaces thereby causing disruptions of flights and supply chains which in turn will destabilize our economy. Nepal’s currency is also pegged to the Indian Rupee so any volatility in the currency will directly impact us. The security implications could be multi-dimensional. Thousands of Nepali men serving in the various armed forces will be in harm's way. We could fall victims to accidental targeting.
Thus, there could be endless scenarios depending on the retaliation and counter retaliation and China’s role in this equation. It really depends on how far it goes up the escalation ladder. The most important aspect I believe is for us to look back at history to learn from the previous similar instances that have brought the two countries closer to a full-blown confrontation. I believe there have been major similar incidents such as the Parliament attack, Mumbai attack, Uri, Pathankot, Nagrota and Pulwama attacks that have brought the two countries close to a confrontation scenario. Thus, lessons need to be drawn from how these incidents unfolded and what responses prevented them from a confrontation. Then, we need to factor in what makes this incident different from the previous ones and calibrate the likelihood of a confrontation. Then, we need to distil the scale and magnitude of the responses each side could undertake and evaluate the impact on us. This time, India has launched airstrikes against 9 targets within Pakistan. Earlier, they expelled defense diplomats from each other’s countries, put certain treaties in abeyance, halted all trade, closed air-space for each other’s airlines etc. Each of these responses needs to be studied for impact. Then, the doomsday scenario of-course is an all-out protracted war between these nuclear powers where the threat of nukes being used by either side remains an option.
But, contingency esp related to ensuring our supply chains, depreciation of our currency, Nepal being dragged to take sides, security provisions to ensure that our territory or our nationals are not harmed or involved by the ongoing hostilities need to be planned for. The deaths and injuries of Nepali nationals in the battlefield also needs to be planned for. Given that only Hindus were selectively killed in Pahalgam, religious violence could possibly ensue in certain areas. But, what worries me the most is the government’s apathy towards doing an in-depth analysis and making preparations accordingly. Another great worry is that government being indifferent/insensitive towards India’s genuine security concerns and interests or the Govt thinking this is the time to needle India with various antics or having a sneering schadenfreude attitude.
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There is an exigent need for Nepal to dispassionately evaluate our security threats emanating from the hostilities in the region. Diplomatically, Nepal needs to be prepared with a position over this issue and given the multitude of international actors and factors impacting this issue. Nepal needs to astutely navigate these tensions and emerge not just unscathed but attempt to establish itself as a strong, reliable and responsible member in the comity of nations.
Given that there are thousands of Nepali nationals serving in the various armed services in India, how could the India-Pakistan hostilities impact?
Pakistan already claims it destroyed a brigade HQ of the Indian Army. If that is true, then there is a high probability of casualty and injury of Nepali Nationals. Nepali nationals in the Gorkha regiments are most likely serving as the vanguard of the Indian armed services. Thus, impact will naturally be palpable. If hostility escalates, they will be in the line of fire, and the probability of casualties and injuries will only increase. Their families too will be impacted equally because they will be worried and concerned about their dear ones. We also don’t know how Pakistan or its allies will regard Nepali nationals fighting from the Indian side, that remains unknown. That should be of great concern to us.
Do you think this will escalate into a full-blown war between the two?
Although India appears and claims to have targeted several alleged terrorist related targets within Pakistan, I personally don’t think the situation will escalate into a full-blown confrontation because there are too many deterrents against that. If you carefully study the official statements of both the governments following the incident, there is no indication that either side is interested in escalating this situation any further. The Indian government's press statement states, "Our actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature, the Indian government said, adding that "no Pakistani military facilities have been targeted. India has demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution." Similarly, Pakistan appears satisfied with its claims. It claims India mounted an assault, but we shot down five Indian jets and took an unknown number of Indian soldiers as prisoners according to Bloomberg reports. The Pakistani Defense minister says, “They have taken the initiative, we have just responded, and we have been saying all along the last fortnight that we will never initiate anything hostile toward India. But if India attacks, we’ll respond. If India backs down, we’ll definitely wrap up.” These carefully selected words to communicate are very telling.
Besides that, the nuclear deterrent is always there. Indian Army is currently reeling from above 150,000 manpower deficiency due to Agniveer scheme and other delays in recruitment. The Air Chief Marshall A.P. Singh has recently spoken publicly about critical deficiency and delay in procurement of air assets. Other factors such as China and Turkey’s open support to Pakistan, President Trumps’ “I’m close to both India and Pakistan” illustrating his unwillingness to back one side, Russia embroiled in its own war and its inability to be the primary hardware supplier, U.N. rendered toothless, global economic turmoil and OIC’s statement calling for de-escalation etc. all cumulatively serve as major deterrents for the Indian side. Most concerning, for me, however, is if the claims that Pakistan shot down 5 Indian aircrafts including 3 Rafale jets turns out to be true. If that is true, it completely puts India’s air-power in great question given that it is their premiere air asset. They have just ordered another 26 following this incident. Also, many Indian strategists are concerned about Bangladesh becoming another major front for them. L.A.C, L.O.C, Bangladesh, volatility in the Northeast, the massive Indian coastline it has to guard combined makes for a daunting threat landscape for India. Pakistan is equally in a vulnerable position. They have an Afghan front that is hostile, Balochistan and other areas in the north have witnessed an exponential spike in militancy like never before, they have had skirmishes with Iran lately, the approval of the govt and its Army remains at its lowest ebb due to the ouster and jailing of a popular leader Imran Khan and the economy remains in tatters. Amidst all the saber-rattling and chest thumping, there is also back-door diplomacy in full swing to prevent an all-out war between the two. Therefore, I personally believe that tensions have peaked and the probability of an all-out war between these two nuclear adversaries remains low.
How should Nepal position itself diplomatically in the event that there is a major military confrontation between India and Pakistan?
First and foremost, as a member and current chair of SAARC (albeit defunct), Nepal must call for both sides to cease hostilities immediately and also offer itself as an interested mediator to halt the conflict. Certainly, we are much smaller than the two countries but we as the oldest sovereign state in the neighborhood derive that legitimacy and the pedestal as the eldest brother in the region to initiate such a diplomatic undertaking. Such instances provide us an opportunity to act. The likelihood of either side accepting it is quite low. But, Nepal mustn’t shy away from taking up that position. Iran and Saudi Arabia – both Islamic nations have offered to mediate so why not Nepal? Nepal must publicly declare its intent on assisting both countries resolve their issues and offer Lumbini also known as the fountain of Peace, for dialogues to resolve this. Simultaneously, we must reinvigorate our “Zone of Peace” status in light of the rising hostilities all around us.
Despite our declared policy and pronouncements of non-alignment and neutrality, the practicality, however, clearly reveals that India is the most strategically important country for Nepal given our geography, culture, religion, economic and security imperatives. We need to factor that. We also need to acknowledge that India has been a victim to terrorism and even Nepal was a victim. Therefore, terrorism needs to be condemned in all forms and formats and we must render unequivocal support in combating terrorism. Then again, we also need a clear position on the issue of violation of Pakistan’s territory and killing of innocent civilians (as alleged by Pakistan).
What other threats should we be thinking of amidst the increasing militarization and intelligence led operations arising from India Pakistan tensions?
There is an almost endless array of threats on multiple domains but let me highlight a few top threats. First, further intel ops might result in both sides violating our sovereignty and battling it out within our territory which includes using proxies against each other’s interests. Airspace violation by either side is a very likely prospect. Pakistan is astutely aware of the porous nature of our border with India and it can easily exploit that to infiltrate into Indian territory to perpetrate any act that imperils India’s national security interests. Former Indian Army Chief Vikram Singh yesterday has warned of Pakistanis using their sleeper cells based in Nepal against India. We need to be very vigilant against that. There is a massive disinformation and propaganda warfare ongoing between the two sides. Our nationals may succumb to that, believe in the disinformation, shape perspectives and do something that may jeopardize Nepal’s status. Both sides are also engaged in attacks and sabotage in the cyber domain as well. Our cyber architecture is susceptible to attacks from either side if they view us as leaning to one side or the other. Electronic warfare is also in full swing as jammers are being used to ensure that each other’s aircrafts’ signals are being jammed, which may impact our airlines traversing through the India Pakistan flight path. If there are attacks by Pakistan in Indian territory anywhere, the likelihood of Nepali nationals being directly killed or injured will also be high given that there are hundreds of thousands of Nepali nationals scattered all over India for various purposes at any given time. Also, in the event that war does break out, we could also have an influx of many Nepali nationals who were studying or working in India and even expect a large influx of Indian nationals fleeing to safety.
