Donald Trump has new strategy to make America even more important and powerful in global affairs
Writings on politics and current affairs are no different than horoscopes. Read the horoscopes published in five different newspapers and each will have a different prediction for your sign. Just as those astrological predictions differ depending on the position of the planets each astrologer deems important, political predictions too differ based on the personalities and factors that each analyst thinks are important.
Now having said this to shield myself from criticisms of being way off from the popular narrative, allow me to argue against all those who believe that Donald Trump’s ‘America
First’ policy is a disaster that will make China and Russia fill the void left by America’s withdrawal from world affairs. Or that it signifies America’s voluntary isolation from the world. On the contrary, it is a brilliant strategy by Donald Trump to make America even more important and powerful in global affairs; otherwise he wouldn’t have announced a significant increase in the US defense budget in the same breath. So, while many of us lump this decision with his other decisions that seem to make no sense, save to himself and his supporters, I believe America First will serve America’s strategic interests globally.
Trump’s strategy is to lure China into a trap by appearing close to Taiwan and further complicate things in the East China Sea, tempting China to believe it can fill the vacuum left by the US withdrawal. China will then embark on a series of economic and military misadventures, including breaking its alliance with Russia, which in turn allows the US to exploit the resentments and animosities between China and its neighbors to America’s strategic advantage. If China falls into the trap, America wins and even if it doesn’t fall into the trap, America again wins.
What happens if China tries to fill the “void” left by US withdrawal or if it falls into the US trap? Not only will it cost a lot of money, it will also not work because no one is ready to accept China’s leadership in the region yet. And China itself has no such vision. It may have ambitions towards this goal but it lacks a clear strategy.
Japan, South Korea, India and Russia are not going to remain quiet and allow China to dominate the region and set global agendas given their unresolved issues and historical animosities. Japan could add nuclear weapons to its arsenal and Russia, given the newly elected US president’s wish to work with it, may decide that it is in its best interests to go with the US on various issues to end its international isolation following the annexation of Crimea. That will leave China with not only neighbors trying to stop it from assuming leadership, but it will also have its major arms exporter, Russia, side with the US.
Therefore, the statements here and there that China is ready to fill the void left by the US withdrawal mean nothing. It is only for domestic consumption because an authoritarian government needs to appear nationalist and strong, but it means absolutely nothing internationally. China knows that it will be counterproductive to flex its economic or military muscles in Asia at this point. Hence it will not do anything that can be even remotely viewed as trying to upset America’s role regionally or globally.
Russia, another country that many fear will take up leadership, too understands that its attempts to do so would be vigorously protested by the Chinese. It will also make China accept the status quo on various contentious issues to move itself closer to America and for this, the Chinese will be willing to make compromises on trade, East China Sea and South China Sea.
A relatively tension-free Sino-US relation means problems for Russia, just as it was during the latter half of the Cold War. Therefore Russia will do nothing that would sabotage its interests and will thus cooperate with the US rather than compete against it on global issues. It will also not want China, its neighbor, to assume the leadership role for security and prestige issues. So Russia too would be willing to make compromises to be on the good side of the US. Let us not forget, ups and downs in China’s relations with Russia and Russia’s relations with China depend on their relations with the US.
All this means America’s continuing relevance and importance in global affairs that is acknowledged even by its competitors. There is no replacement for the US anytime soon as all the major players know America’s withdrawal will only complicate things. Rather each will want to side with the US to thwart the other’s ambition. Make no mistake, the US will be the necessary evil in world affairs for a long time.
If anything, America First means taking time off the game to think of a big winning strategy, and both China and Russia know this. Imagine there is a basketball game between China and the US. The US asks for a time-out in the last minutes of the last quarter to think of a strategy to win the game with a huge margin. The game stops. The Chinese, defying the rules of the game, are not going to remain in the court shooting the ball.
Because it makes no sense to score points in the absence of a competitor, China won’t even bother. It also knows that when the game resumes, it will be wise to lose the game with a lower margin to save its face and for that it needs to accept the superiority of Team America and not provoke it into being aggressive. Now, replace China with Russia, and it probably thinks the same way.
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