We can further conjecture that, with repeated aftershocks and a sizeable one on May 12, the outflow of permanent residents of Kathmandu may have grown bigger, because of continuing danger and reluctance to live in fear for rest of their lives. The number of those making the transformative decision of leaving Valley and hill regions is now very small but many would keep this option open. "How do you rebuild when the ground beneath your feet could shift any moment?" reports one Time Magazine correspondent after talking to a resident in Gorkha district, the epicenter of the large April 25 temblor.Government has been struggling to meet emergency needs of affected population, while keeping long-term planning on a back-burner. After initial emergency is over, the first order of business for government will be to get on with rehabilitation and reconstruction, starting with restoration of damaged buildings and replacing those completely destroyed. Rehabilitation of transport system will be another post-earthquake priority. At this time, it is anybody's guess how expensive these undertakings are going to be and how long it will take to rebuild, but we can easily say that it will be a multi-billion dollar venture spanning over a decade or longer.
Another concern relates to the psychology of living with the danger—continuing concern about seismic stability of hill region in general and Kathmandu Valley in particular, which may induce permanent moving to safer regions in the flatlands of Madhesh, which comprises a third of the country. This rather radical option is unlikely to get traction for sometime but this sentiment will definitely grow if seismic studies confirm the instability of hill terrains and one currently high-flying rumor of Kathmandu Valley turning into one big swamp is engraved onto people's psyche.
If ever it gets to this stage—a scenario of mass migration of Hill and Kathmandu residents to the Madhesh region—what shape would it take: will it be driven by individual desire to migrate to safer domains, or this option will be pushed by government or, may be, some combination of the two? If such a thing does come to pass, Madhesh will change dramatically, compared to what has taken place since the opening of East-West Highway some decades earlier.
In whatever ways—voluntary or government-sponsored—and over whatever time period this takes place, the immediate challenge faced by new immigrants will be to earn a living and, hopefully, make themselves familiar with high heat and humidity and tropical diseases.
Madhesh region doesn't have an industrial base, business hubs, or service sector that can employ immigrants since most of them operate as family-owned businesses, similar to subsistence farming which, for most parts, engages family labor. In other words, demand for wage labor in Madhesh is largely nonexistent and new job opportunities are limited because of near-absence of critical infrastructure. For new immigrants it will be hard to find decent jobs for themselves, beyond working as casual labor or in petty trades. Probably, economic hurdles faced by new immigrants will work as a deterrent against their leaving their familiar locales, regardless of the danger they face from natural disasters.
However, some measure of help can come from government, if it decides that rebuilding and rehabilitation of damaged regions will be unaffordable and may not be a good long-term option. Already, government has limited the height of new buildings in Kathmandu Valley to just two stories, severely limiting availability of living space for current residents and constraining any future expansion. Additionally, building codes are going to be strengthened. At the same time, a rigorous implementation of even existing codes will increase building costs multiple times and make housing out of reach for most families.
Government may then choose to offer free or subsidized housing to those migrating to Madhesh, and also may up the ante by adding attractions via livelihood support for purchase of business and agricultural land, while mapping out strategy for pushing up industrialization to create new jobs. Probably, such an infusion of outside manpower and capital along with new government enthusiasm to lift economic activities in the region will work as an elixir for long-dormant Madhesh economy and help balance development spending now tilted heavily in favor of Hill regions.
One important missing ingredient from this post-earthquake strategy is the reception by Madhesh residents of the changes from new migration to the region which, reading it positively, would give momentum to national integration which, for whatever reasons, has never been pushed as it was seen as a threat to the country's Hill-dominated national identity. If the new migration is packaged as an effort to bring the two regions together and a promise of equal sharing of advantages of nationhood, this would be welcomed as a nation-building effort.
However, given the government's past coolness to integration, it seems likely that immigration will be read by local residents as an occupation strategy, especially if the move is subsidized by in the form of financing new settlements and subsidized purchase of local businesses and farmland. Because of the magnitude of loss suffered by Hill population, relocation and rehabilitation assistance needn't be controversial, given that the government is able to offer such a scheme as humanitarian relief and supplements it by renewed commitment to improving the region's infrastructure. Launching some high-profile projects such as a cross-county rail line and comprehensive irrigation and flood control planning would help get broad support for the new immigration initiative.
However, looking back at history, nation-building has been an alien concept for hill-based elite and so the earthquake, more likely, would offer an excuse to strengthen their hold on Madhesh, in the way of economic and cultural domination on top of political and administrative domination. At the same time, new immigration can also be a blessing in disguise if it helps change social practices and political divisions in Madhesh, and imparts local people a sense of pride in facing new challengers.
sshah1983@hotmail.com
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