The Maoists want to achieve per capita income of US $1400 within next five years. Doubling the figure from an extremely low base of slightly over US $700 isn’t exactly as ambitious as it sounds. However, ability of the party of former insurgents in managing the social fallout of pursuing such a revolutionary path of political economy remains in doubt. It would imply handing over the economy to the same forces—the Profit Sector—that the Maoists have trained their cadres to deride. The NC and the UML are aiming to chase a slightly lower figure of about US $1000 during the same timeframe.
High priest of socialism Vladimir Lenin had ordained that Soviet power plus electrification equals communism. Little wonder, electricity is the chief concern of a country obsessed with communism. The NC and UML are promising to produce 5000 MW within next five years. The Maoists want a decade to deliver double that capacity. Once again, these figures are not unrealistic. However, given the fact that Nepal has failed to produce even 1000 MW in 60 years of planned development, the promise raises skepticism rather than hope.
Commercialization of agriculture and attracting two million tourists are twin engines of growth the Maoists want to assemble. The NC is aiming for the figure of five million tourists while UML would be happy with four million international visitors. For a country bordering two billion-plus civilization-states in a continent that is home to seven of the ten biggest metropolitan cities with over 20 million population each, international tourism is clearly an alluring opportunity.
The gap between an idea and the ability to transform it into practical goals is what differentiates a dreamer from the achiever. Forget everything else; can Kathmandu handle the solid waste produced by even half-a-million additional tourists every year without overhauling nearly three-decade old municipal system designed for about one-tenth of current population of the capital city? But then political manifestos are meant for the faithful rather than realists.
The NC and the UML have at least been honest in choosing the term. A manifesto is the document of declaration of policies with little or no relation to their practicalities. Unfortunately, Maoists didn’t have the luxury of such an option.
For any party that claims to be even nominally communist, there is only one manifesto: The Manifesto of Communist Party (better known as The Communist Manifesto) written by Mahatma Karl Marx and divine angel Friedrich Engels. Proof enough, if at all it was needed, that the UML doesn’t consider itself a communist party any more.
Continuing to maintain that they are communists, the Maoists were forced to declare that their pamphlet of policies was in fact a document of commitment derived from the Holy Book of Communist Manifesto. Messrs Baburam Bhattarai and Pushpa Kamal Dahal probably realize that they would have to manufacture credible excuses for programs that are destined to create widespread discontent if successful and even more disappointments in case of failure.
Muddled minds
There are several factors behind the poverty of imagination of Nepali politicos. Over a century of Ranarchy stifled minds. Three decades of Shah rule under Panchayat robbed the country of all creativity. The intellectual wasteland that Rana and Shah devastations left in their wake was unfit for the growth of free thought. Consequently, only ideologies of certainty such as communism and developmentalism grew in the inhospitable terrain of the country. Instead of inventiveness and determination, at least two generations of politicos have grown up with the belief that guile and dexterity are primary requirements of success in politics.
The collapse of Soviet Union consigned socialistic dreams to the dustbins of history. The rise of state capitalism in China dealt a deadlier blow to the idea of communist utopia. Developmentalism, however, has survived devastations wrought upon much of Africa and South America and continues to delude the bourgeoisie of client countries in believing that they too can become like their patrons despite the imbalance in power relations.
During difficult times, ideologies are created to give a sense of certitude. In the wake of World War II, developmentalism was derived from capitalism to counter the lure of communism in newly independent countries. The emerging elites of the so-called Third World was told that they too could become ‘developed’ with dollops of aid to meet the investment shortfall required for the creation of physical, economic and social infrastructure. The rider was that politics had to be modeled after the requirements of free-market economy.
The dichotomy of “our bastard” versus “their bastard” was based on the premise that one kind of dictator was necessary for development of capitalism while the other had to be ousted or eliminated to free such a country from the grip of communism. So Chavismo, even though based on electoral support, is merely populism while Wahabi regimes are practical necessities of an unsettled region. The distinction continues to be made, with strategic consultant to the global capital Robert D Kaplan recently arguing in a widely circulated piece that certain kind of dictators or authoritarian rulers are in fact pragmatic politicos. Former communists—every Deng Xiaoping wannabes—are thus possible collaborators of dream merchants hawking visions of next Tiger Economy.
There is a slight problem with these pipedreams: Human and environmental costs of building the next Korea in Ethiopia or replicating the killing fields of Malaya in the plains and mountains of Nepal may turn out to be hugely destabilizing.
People first
For a high-ranking diplomat, the British envoy appears to be unusually outspoken. During a panel discussion to launch an updated edition of the celebrated tract Unleashing Nepal by Sujiv Shakya about a month ago, Ambassador Andy Sparks declared without a hint of irony, “Nepalese are naturally, temperamentally, suited for the service industry.” It was unnecessary to add that Nepalis didn’t need to pay too much attention to creative or productive enterprises. Developmentalism is based on the concept of competitive advantage and people are Nepal’s primary, if not the only, convertible resources.
The longstanding excitement over hydroelectric ‘potentials’ notwithstanding, the reality is that per capita availability of irrigable land, water and proven sources of energy in Nepal is abysmally low. The fact that the country imports eight times more than what it exports is not just a question of mismanagement but also the absence of tradable goods combined with compulsions of a landlocked country with one of the most difficult terrain in the world to traverse. If Nepal has succeeded in reducing hunger and poverty, the credit goes to its people that have been shedding blood, sweat and tears in some of the most inhospitable countries including the sheikhdoms of the Arab world.
Manifestos and commitment-papers are ritualistic requirements of electoral exercises. That done, now candidates would have to declare their intentions about how they plan to improve community schools, government hospitals, public transport and governance in general. Every voter may not be able to articulate her concerns, but one doesn’t need a degree in economics to realize that creation of a handful of dollar billionaires can easily have the effect of doubling average per capita income in a very short period. They all would probably then become Non-Resident Nepalis. The rest shall wait for the emergence of yet another pack of armed insurgents promising deliverance.
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