KATHMANDU, Jan 21: US President Donald J. Trump is no stranger to global politics, including in Nepal. But as he assumes office at the White House as the 47th president of the US—for the second time after a gap of four years—there are concerns and speculations about how his administration will shape US relations with other countries.
In Nepal, these concerns are mainly related to the US’s relations with its two immediate neighbors—China and India—and the approach the new Trump administration will take to address the threat of climate change. While most experts believe that US-Nepal relations will not undergo any fundamental changes, the dynamics of US-China and US-India relations under the new Trump administration will significantly impact Nepal.
The US is the second country, after Britain, with which Nepal established its diplomatic relations in 1948. “Our relations with the US will be affected by the changes in the US’s relationship with India and China. Our foreign policy priority should, therefore, be to maintain ‘equiclose’ relations with both India and China while strengthening our ties with the US,” says former Foreign Minister Ramesh Nath Pandey.
Foreign policy experts suggest that the Trump administration is likely to have a ‘difficult relationship’ with China, given the choices he has made in the key positions in the state and defense departments. They also believe US relations with Asia-Pacific countries will largely be driven by security considerations.
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Former Ambassador of Nepal to the United Nations Dr. Dinesh Bhattarai expects the new Trump administration to adopt a ‘tough’ stance toward China, similar to its previous term. “The Indo-Pacific regional security strategy of the US took shape during the earlier Trump administration. We need to monitor how this strategy evolves under the new administration,” says Dr. Bhattarai, who also served as a foreign relations advisor to former prime ministers Sushil Koirala and Sher Bahadur Deuba.
Experts argue that given the fact that the Biden administration largely continued the foreign policies of the previous Trump administration, significant changes in US policy toward Nepal are unlikely. “One thing, however, is almost certain: the new administration may not be as liberal in terms of issues of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. I believe that the US government may not give equal focus to the issue of climate justice,” adds Dr. Bhattarai. Nepal, which is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite contributing very little to global greenhouse gas emissions, has been pushing the agenda of climate justice.
Relations between the Trump administration and the World Health Organization strained during its previous tenure. Under Republican administrations, the US often discourages investments in maternal and child health, family planning, and abortion, which could have significant repercussions for Nepal.
On other fronts of bilateral assistance, the new administration is not expected to bring significant changes. Nepal and the US, for instance, signed the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact worth USD 500 million during the previous Trump administration to develop cross-border transmission lines and upgrade road networks.
Former Foreign Secretary Madhu Raman Acharya believes that while the Trump administration might bring changes to global politics through its confrontational approach toward China, it is unlikely to make substantial changes in its relationship with Nepal. “I do not think the new US administration will have any meaningful changes to its relations with Nepal. There may be major changes on international issues, which will largely depend on US-China relations,” he says.
Anti-immigration policies were the central agenda that many experts believe drove President Trump to the White House. There are fears that thousands of Nepali nationals are likely to be affected by the stricter immigration policies that President Trump has vowed to introduce. Around 19,000 Nepali nationals currently living in the US under Temporary Protected Status (TPS), according to the US Citizenship and Immigration Services, face the risk of losing their status under the new administration.
While many in Nepal fear that US-China relations might deteriorate under Trump, some experts suggest the US may build a stronger economic and strategic relationship with China, given President Trump’s reputation as a dealmaker with a ‘transactional’ foreign policy approach. “The Trump administration presents both challenges and opportunities for Nepal. We need to watch how the relations of the US evolve with China and India and pursue a mature foreign policy to navigate these complexities,” adds former Foreign Minister Pandey.
