Golf swings, World War III, and pornstars. All topics that came up were during the Presidential debate on Thursday night between US President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump. If Americans tuned in for reassurances over their country’s future, there was little to be found.
Surveys suggest that the majority of Americans don’t want either candidate to represent them.
The debate achieved little to change their mind. Biden came off exactly as the Republicans have been working to portray him - too old for the “most difficult job in the world.” His voice was hoarse; he tripped over his words on several occasions, and often looked blankly away from the camera.
Trump, showed that despite impeachments and a felony conviction he is not a changed man; he spent the debate avoiding answering questions, engaging in wanton self-praise, and lying. Worryingly, Trump refused to answer whether he would accept the election results, renounce white nationalist groups, or commit to defending NATO’s Article 5. At one point Biden accused him of having the “morals of an alley cat.”
Biden was the one with policy ideas. In classic Democrat fashion, he spoke of raising the corporate tax, expanding child-care, and continuing investment in infrastructure and climate. He had the data and numbers but struggled to articulate them. Particularly on the one issue Republicans find themselves on the backfoot: abortion. Biden accused Trump for the 2022 reversal of Roe v. Wade, a 1973 Supreme Court ruling that generally protected the right to abortion. The right to abortion is the one issue that may rally the Democratic base. Yet Biden missed pinning Trump on it. This, even after Trump bizarrely claimed that some Democrat-run states allow for “post-birth abortions.”
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Trump’s answers during the debate, while light on the details and often rambly themselves, were delivered with the confidence of a self-certain salesman. Trump pushed Biden on two topics for which the Democrats are struggling to find the right answer: inflation and immigration.
On inflation, Trump promised to “end the Biden inflation nightmare." U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show Consumer prices have increased roughly 20% over the three-plus years since Biden took office. Inflation, Trump said, is a “nation buster." Biden did acknowledge that inflation was still high at 3.4%, but down from the peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
Republicans have been pushing tighter border control, one of the key talking points of this election. Border control touches on two key issues that voters have continued to worry about: illegal immigration and the opioid crisis. On immigration, Trump praised the efficiency of his “beautiful wall” and leveraged news of the recent murder of 3 women across multiple states to suggest Biden’s immigration policy had turned the country into a “rat’s nest.” He added that “we have the largest number of terrorists coming into our country right now, all terrorists, all over the world, not just in South America, all over the world.” Claims that are factually dubious and ought to have been challenged by the moderators.
An experienced statesman, Biden seemed more comfortable as the topic moved away from domestic to foreign policy. He confronted Trump for his past praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his criticism of the NATO alliance, labeling his potential pay-to-play policy as "foolishness." Trump for his part was adamant that Europe needs to take on the economic burden of NATO. “There is an ocean between us and Russia,” he said, adding, “I'm not going to support NATO if they don't pay.”
Other than fundamental differences on how to approach the Ukraine war, and who is to blame for the embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden and Trump are close on the larger geopolitical priorities. Both are steadfast on their support for Israel, and both believe China to be the biggest threat to US national security. They only differ in terms of approach and degree. Trump’s America-first approach would leave it to Israel to “finish the job”. Biden would prefer to work with partners to push Tel Aviv towards a ceasefire and come to the negotiating table for a two state-solution. On China, there wasn’t much policy to debate; both competed over who was tougher.
As it so happens during Presidential debates, there is rarely a winner, and the US public is often worse for having sat through almost 2-hours of seeing candidates in temper tantrums. Biden’s incoherence made it seem that Trump did a better job. And indeed, he did, at least at capturing the current dissatisfaction level with how things are going. A Gallup poll from May 2024 put dissatisfaction at 77%.
But Trump’s vision of America is dark. Trump believes immigration is “destroying the blood of America '', election results cannot be trusted, and using his political office to attract retribution is justified. He presented a self-loathing vision of America, where the rest of the world thinks it is a sucker, weak and is being laughed at. And the only one who can stop the rot is him, constitutional checks and balances be damned.
Biden presented a much brighter vision of America where the US continues to lead the world, is self-renewing and confident. But the way he presented what should have been a positive message came off as disingenuous and limp.
The question going into the first presidential debate was which version of Biden will we get - Biden who is articulate, decent and statesmanlike or an elderly man with cognitive issues who cannot lead the country for four more years. We got the latter. And the Democratic Party now finds itself in shock and is trying to manage the crisis. After the debate, there have been calls for Biden to step away as the Democratic candidate and allow someone else to be the official nominee. Media reports suggest California’s Democrat Governor, Gavin Newson is a potential replacement.
Neither Biden nor Trump are currently the official Party nominees. The Democrats have their party convention in Chicago in August. Republicans officially nominated their candidate in Milwaukee in July. The path forward for Republicans seems obvious. After last night's performance the path forward for Democrats seems a lot more complicated.
If Thursday night was an indication of things to come, there are long nights ahead until November for Biden, for the Democrats, and for Americans.
