As the election result is largely determined by a few hundred votes in the constituency-3 of the district, poll candidates representing the four major political parties in the constituency, Nepali Congress, the UCPN (Maoist), the CPN-UML and Rastriya Prajatantra Party are adopting all possible strategies to appease the Mohan Baidya-led Maoist group to ensure their victory in the polls. [break]
Lately, poll candidates from these parties have invested a lot of their energy and resources to woo the Baidya group to secure decisive votes.
Party insiders say though the split has made a minimal impact to the UCPN (Maoist) in constituencies-1 and 2, the Baidya-led Maoist has a relatively stronger presence in the constituency-3.
Local level party leaders estimate that the Baidya faction commands around 2,000 to 3,000 votes in the constituency as the Dawa Tamang, who won previous election as the UCPN (Maoist) candidate, is now a central member of the agitating CPN-Maoist.
Interestingly, the Baidya-led Maoists have neither posed any obstruction to the poll candidates in the constituency, nor has this party engaged in any anti-poll activities as per the policy adopted by the party´s central leadership.
Instead, local level leaders of the Baidya-led party hint that they could take a decision to support deserving candidate who can bring development, at the ´last moment´.
In all four previous elections held after the restoration of democracy in 1990, the difference of votes between the winning candidate and his nearest rival from the constituency had remained meager few hundreds to 1000.
As the difference between the first and the third candidates also stood at just around 3,000 votes, leaders belonging to NC, the UML, the UCPN (Maoist) and RPP believe that they could easily win if the Baidya-group is brought to their fold.
NC candidate Tara Nath Dahal, UML candidate Sher Bahadur Tamang, UCPN (Maoist) candidate Bil Bahadur Rayamajhi and Rastriya Prajatantra Party Chairman Pashupati SJB Rana are in a tough poll battle from this constituency.
Local intellectuals in Melamchi said votes held by the agitating Baidya group is considered ´decisive´ as none of the candidates are in a comfortable position yet.
“Any candidate garnering support from the Baidya-led Maoists is likely to win from this constituency. All parties appear to be making their efforts to secure [Baidya´s] support now," said Shivram Bhattarai.
Dawa Tamang of the UCPN (Maoist) had defeated UML candidate Sher Bahadur Tamang with a very narrow margin of 100 votes in the previous CA election. RPP candidate Pashupati SJB Rana, who considers Sindhupalchowk 3 as bastion of the party, was forced to shrink to the third position.
Known for his gentle and amiable nature among locals, Dawa Tamang commands popular support from the Tamang community in various VDCs including in Ruwa, Bhotang, Gunsa and Thangpalkot.
Local NC leaders told Republica that their informal talks with the Baidya group were heading toward a positive direction.
“We are hopeful that they would eventually decide to support us,” said a NC leader asking not to be named. UML leaders are equally hopeful that Dawa would lend his support to Sher Bahadur Tamang, who was defeated by him with a narrow margin, in the last election.
Sher Bahadur is the only Tamang candidate from major parties in the fray.
Sources said poll candidate of the UCPN (Maoist), which fell behind in the constituency due to the party split, is also making efforts to woo Dawa back to the mother party to secure victory in the election.
Nevertheless, RPP Chair Rana, who was defeated for the first time in his 40-year long political career by Dawa in the previous election, is not in favor of soliciting his vote at personal level.
RPP local leaders claimed efforts were being made to reach out to Dawa. UCPN (Maoist) candidate Rayamajhi said he stood as election candidate from the constituency with the support of the Baidya-led Maoist.
“They have told me that they would vote for me no matter where their party stands now," Rayamajhi, who spent 15 years in teaching profession, told Republica.
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