My Republica

Stephen S. Roach

The contributor for Republica.
news@myrepublica.com

The Internet versus democracy

Published On: January 24, 2021 08:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

In a decade punctuated by the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 crisis, a racial-justice crisis, an inequality crisis, and now a political crisis, we have only paid lip service to lofty democratic ideals.

The pandemic’s long economic shadow

Published On: December 25, 2020 07:34 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

While mass vaccination points to an end to the COVID-19 pandemic in the next year or so, it does not provide immunity against longer-term economic damage.

China leads again

Published On: November 1, 2020 06:50 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

Just as China led the world in economic recovery in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, it is playing a similar role today. Its post-COVID rebound is gathering momentum amid a developed world that remains on shaky ground.

Warnings from global trade

Published On: January 31, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

The global trade cycle is facing major stress in 2019, and markdowns have only just begun

In defense of Fed

Published On: January 3, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

Notwithstanding rumored unconstitutional threats from the president, Fed should be congratulated for its steadfast commitment to policy “normalization”

America’s Inflation Risks

Published On: October 30, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

Not surprisingly, this pattern has been slow to emerge in the current cycle, largely owing to an unusually weak post-crisis economic recovery

Quantitative easing turns ten

Published On: August 12, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

Are independent central banks willing to force society to sacrifice growth for financial stability?

When politics trumps economics

Published On: July 2, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

Trump’s deficit-busting tax cuts and increases in government spending make no sense for an economy with an unemployment rate of 3.8 percent

America’s multilateral dilemma

Published On: May 30, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

It doesn’t help when we emphasize that China is merely a large piece of a much bigger multilateral problem

China from a glass house

Published On: March 28, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

The current debate in China is less about strategy design and more about implementation. This was Xi’s highest priority on assuming office in late 2012

Myth of sound fundamentals

Published On: March 4, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

With dysfunctional policies pointing to a further compression of saving in the years ahead, the myth of sound US fundamentals has never rung more hollow.

Losing trade war

Published On: February 1, 2018 01:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

Going after China, or any other country, without addressing the root cause of low saving is like squeezing one end of a water balloon: the water simply sloshes to the other end

Testing 2018

Published On: December 17, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

It is important to stress that the world economy may not be nearly as resilient as the consensus seems to believe.

Trump’s tax scam

Published On: November 28, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the tax cuts will result in a cumulative deficit of about $1.4 trillion over next decade.

Bungling on China

Published On: September 3, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

America does not hold the trump card in its relation with China.

China’s economic resilience

Published On: July 31, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

Were it not for China’s resilience in the depths of recent crisis, world GDP would not have contracted by 0.1 percent in 2009, but plunged by 1.3 percent.

Global China

Published On: May 31, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

The Next China is shaping up to be outwardly focused, assertive and power-centric

A resilient China

Published On: April 3, 2017 07:23 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

NEW HAVEN: Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. This, of course, is very much at odds with Western conventional wisdom, which has long expected a hard landing in China. Once again, the Western perspective missed the Chinese context—a resilient system that places a high premium on stability.

China’s big sticks

Published On: January 30, 2017 12:15 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

China is threatening to hit back. And now America will have to face the consequences

Without China

Published On: October 27, 2016 12:25 AM NPT By: Stephen S. Roach

Without China the world economy would be below the 2.5 percent threshold associated with global recession