Then President of Nepal, Dr Ram Baran Yadav, unveiled the much awaited Constitution of Nepal 2015 on September 20. An overwhelming majority of Constituent Assembly members—507 of the 532 present—had voted in favor of the new charter on September 16th. Altogether 537 members, including then Prime Minister Sushil Koirala, signed the charter on September 18th before the CA chairman Subhash Chandra Nembang certified it.The constitution has federated Nepal into seven provinces. But existing population distribution among them is uneven. Population wise, Province 3 is in the most advantageous position followed by Province 2 (see the table below). Province 6 is the smallest, followed by Province 4.
During 2001-2011, 27 districts of the country had witnessed negative population growth. Eight out of 10 districts (now in Province 4) experienced negative population growth. It will have far reaching consequences for Province 4 and could also put it into serious disadvantage in terms of representation. Of 14 districts of Province 1, nine districts are experiencing negative population growth. Province 2, 6 and 7 don't have this problem.
A detailed analysis of demographic dynamics reveals that current delineation of provinces is unscientific. Eventually, some of them will begin to feel "inferior" to others for the strength of a federal province largely depends on its population size.
It is not too late to revise the province demarcation by taking population size into consideration.
The parliament on January 23rd endorsed amendment bills after 126 days of the constitution's promulgation. Amendment has been made on three Articles—Articles 42, 84 and 286, the last two related with electoral constituencies.
Amended Article 84 states that while delineating constituencies for House of Representatives "population" will be made primary and "geography" secondary basis. Article 286 ensures that each district of a province must have "at least one electoral constituency" regardless of population size.
Under this scheme, Province 2 and 3 will have 34 seats each followed by Province 1 and 5 with 28 seats each, while Province 7, 4 and 6 will end up with 16, 15 and 10 seats respectively.
Twenty districts of Tarai will have 83 seats or 50.3 percent, mid-hills will have 71 seats (43 percent) and the mountains 11 seats (6-7 percent). This allows not a single seat to Rasuwa, Mustang, Manag, Mugu, Humla and Dolpa.
Therefore we need to modify this provision. Balancing population size and geography within each province does not change total seats per province but some districts within the province need to concede some seats to compensate for other districts.
In Province 3, Kathmandu will have to give up one constituency to Rasuwa. Kaski and Nawalparasi (East), in Province 4, need to cede one seat each for Manang and Mustang; Surkhet, Dailekh and Salyan, in Province 6, need to give up one seat each to Mugu, Humla and Dolpa.
Eighty two of total seats will be in Tarai: 66 for hills and 17 for mountain districts. But there will be only one seat in ten districts of Province 6.
A more accommodating approach would be to concede two seats from Tarai—one each from Morang and Sarlahi for Kaski and Surkhet districts. This will make for 80 seats in Tarai, 68 in hills and 17 in mountain districts (as shown in the last column of the table).
Given that a large number of political groups are unhappy with the current demarcation of provinces, we need to come up with a demarcation model that does justice to population size of each province.
The new approach must take into account population size while federating rather than focusing on social groups, castes and ethnicity. The latter could disrupt our age-old inter group harmony, cohesiveness and social fabric.
Even if we are to continue with current provinces, we need to allocate seats in districts through a compromise model. It would give solace to the people of mountains and hills. It will cement inter-community relation and possibly discourage the trend of migrating to Tarai-Madhesh and beyond in search of better opportunities.
The author is a demographer and a former member of National Planning Commission
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