KATHMANDU, Jan 14: As the date for the House of Representatives election draws closer, political discussions are intensifying. The election, scheduled for March 5, will see nomination registration for direct elections on January 20.
After being integrated into the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), speculation has grown over where Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balendra Shah (Balen) will contest the election from. While there has been debate over whether he would choose a constituency within Kathmandu or contest from his home district Mahottari, a new development has recently emerged: Balen may run from Jhapa Constituency No. 5.
Jhapa-5 is the long-held electoral stronghold of CPN-UML Chairperson and former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Except for the first Constituent Assembly election, Oli has consistently won from this constituency by large margins. Jhapa-5 comprises the entirety of Damak Municipality and Kamal Rural Municipality, wards 1 to 8 of Gauradaha Municipality, and wards 3 to 6 of Gaurigunj Rural Municipality.
Why would Balen be interested in contesting from Jhapa-5, a constituency considered a UML bastion? This question has sparked widespread debate in political circles. As a known critic of Oli, some have speculated that Balen’s potential candidacy in Jhapa is aimed solely at defeating the UML chairperson.
There has also been talk of a strained relationship between the two following the Gen-Z movement, during which pressure was allegedly exerted on Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal of the Sushila Karki-led government to arrest Oli. When that did not happen, the distance between Balen and Oli reportedly widened. Balen’s social media posts and Oli’s public speeches further suggest that relations between the two are far from cordial. This has led to speculation over whether this strained relationship could turn into direct electoral rivalry.
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Despite the nature of their relationship, both Oli and Balen appear prepared to face each other electorally. Senior RSP leader Balen held an extended discussion on Sunday in Lalitpur with RSP Jhapa district chair Prakash Pathak, secretary Shambhu Sushkera, and other representatives. Jhapa leaders of the RSP, who claim the party has made significant organizational gains recently, viewed the meeting positively.
RSP representatives believe that a leader who won the Kathmandu mayoral race as an independent candidate challenging a former prime minister, UML central chairperson, and veteran politician would signal the party’s growing strength. During the discussion, Balen reportedly asked party leaders to prepare for his nomination from Jhapa-5 on Magh 6, including plans to reach the election office in a procession. He also sought information about the party’s organizational strength in Jhapa and strategies for the constituency.
These developments have strengthened speculation that Balen may indeed contest from Jhapa. Following the meeting, Balen posted a Facebook status at 9:46 pm on Sunday night, stating: “Best wishes to everyone!! We are coming!!”
Jhapa district chair Prakash Pathak claimed that RSP’s organization is strong in most local units within Jhapa-5 and expressed confidence that Balen’s presence would help expand the party’s influence in southern areas such as Kohabara and Gaurigunj, which have a significant Indigenous population. He asserted that regardless of who contests from RSP, the party would win Jhapa-5, claiming that Oli has been rejected by the nation and would not receive voter support again.
Pathak further stated that youths in Damak Municipality, Oli’s hometown, are enthusiastic about Balen. He added that while the Nepali Congress and Rastriya Prajatantra Party also have strong organizations in Damak, RSP remains electorally strong overall. “We will secure overwhelming votes in Kamal Rural Municipality, Gauradaha Municipality, and Gaurigunj Rural Municipality. As for Damak, the youth are drawn toward us,” he said, confidently claiming Balen’s victory in Jhapa-5.
Pathak also shared that Balen had indicated he would announce his candidacy on social media within a few days, although the final decision would be made by the party.
Meanwhile, UML Jhapa remains confident of victory for its chairperson in Jhapa-5. UML leaders have described Balen as an “outsider candidate” should he contest and stressed that UML will not retreat from the constituency. UML Jhapa district chair Prem Giri said the party is confident in its organization, performance, and voter base in Jhapa-5, calling Oli an irreplaceable leader.
Citing past elections where Oli won despite opposition unity, Giri said UML would once again make every effort to secure victory. “Our chairperson is a guardian figure. Voters judge based on performance. We are confident that voters will not trade Chairman Oli’s contribution to national prosperity for an outsider candidate,” he said, adding that UML will contest independently in all five Jhapa constituencies without forming alliances.
Despite strong claims from both UML and RSP, former Chief Election Commissioner Nilkantha Upreti dismissed discussions about Balen contesting from Jhapa as merely conflict-inducing speculation. He emphasized that any Nepali citizen may contest from any of the country’s 165 constituencies but urged all sides to act with restraint, given the sensitivity of electoral processes. Upreti warned that the Election Commission has the authority to cancel candidacies if any candidate is harassed or defamed outside democratic norms.
Balen is reportedly planning to resign as Kathmandu mayor in the first week of Magh and enter the electoral race, with preparations underway to begin campaigning from Sudurpaschim Province.
However, an official from Balen’s secretariat stated that no final decision has been made regarding his candidacy. According to the source, preliminary surveys are being conducted in potential constituencies, and a decision will follow further discussion.
At present, Balen resides in Sinamangal, Kathmandu, which falls under Kathmandu Constituency No. 2, another constituency being discussed as a possible option. There is also speculation that he may contest from his home district Mahottari, where RSP’s organization is said to be strong.
Although three constituencies are currently being discussed, Balen is expected to contest from only one. The rest, observers say, may simply be political speculation or media hype.
