Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is set to make his first visit to India starting this Friday. This visit is significant as it follows the end of four-month-long economic blockade by India.
Right after assuming office in October last year, Oli had sent Pradeep Gyawali (as his special envoy) and DPM and Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa to India to work to lift the blockade. Both returned empty-handed.Recently Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel went to India to make necessary arrangements for his visit. Army chief Rajendra Kshetri had been there to apprise the Indian leadership of security challenges due to the unrest in border regions. It is believed that Kshetri convinced Indian authorities about the real situations in Nepal. Then came Indian Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj's trip to Kathmandu to pay tribute to late Sushil Koirala. It is said that these exchanges created favorable atmosphere for Oli to go to India.
This visit should make us reflect on our diplomacy. Why could not Nepal garner external support against blockade that was imposed in clear violation of international laws and transit rights of landlocked countries? Because of our weak diplomacy. Though Nepal is a SAARC chair, the regional body did not speak against it. Even repeated appeals from UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, to lift the blockade went in deaf ears. No powerful country spoke for us and exerted pressure on India. Our priority now should be strengthening diplomacy with common understanding of national interests.
It is possible that Oli will be warmly welcomed but no serious agendas will be discussed because Nepal does not seem to have prepared any strategic plans. They may discuss issues such as soft loan, grant and power supply to Nepal. Issues of trade diversification and strengthening trade ties may not be discussed. PM has promised that he will not sign any treaties against national interest. This commitment will be tested during his stay in Delhi.
PM Oli had invited former PMs and foreign ministers to take their feedback on what he should do during India visit. Many have warned him not to sign new deals and focus on normalizing India Nepal relation. Oli should do just that. However, he may seek an assurance from India to secure US $2 billion that India had pledged for post-earthquake reconstruction.
The PM had publically announced that he would not visit India unless the blockade was lifted. This was the right stand. Now that blockade has been lifted, reconstruction authority bill passed, National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) set up, the real test of his government begins.
PM Oli should present trilateral road map by welcoming China. The visit should review the blockade and role of ambassadors of both countries. Nepal should focus on transit rights and effective mechanism on controlling trans-border crimes. He needs to discuss the agenda of welcoming third country for economic prosperity of both countries.
India will use this visit as an opportunity to normalize relation with Nepal for Modi has been criticized for mishandling of Nepal policy at home. Modi will certainly influence Nepali delegates. Therefore, India is trying to give this visit a color of state visit. India will convince that the blockade was not imposed by it as it was only the supply obstruction caused by Nepal's political problems. The India strategy could be to delay Sino-Nepal trade agreements to be held in near future. Reportedly, India has proposed to sign some security contracts like Transfer of Sentenced Person (TSP), Extradition Treaty and Mutual Legal Support Contract. Is Nepal prepared?
Though PM Oli was invited to attend annual Boa Forum for Asia Conference during the ministerial level meeting between DPM Kamal Thapa and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in December, he chose to visit India first. This is understandable given the sufferings caused by blockade and urgent need to improve relation with India. China may not mind it. But Oli cannot ignore China.
Government recently has formed an Eminent Persons Group (EPG) mandating to review, replace and update the bilateral treaties with India including most debated Peace and Friendship Treaty of 1950. If India also forms a similar Group, it will be a good gesture toward normalizing the ties by reviewing past treaties.
People expect Oli to maintain Nepal's glorious image of independent nation during his visit rather than submitting the list of demands as previous governments did. Nepal should set the policy to strengthen trilateral relations welcoming China for political, security, economic and cultural cooperation among three countries with trilateral agreements, action plans, and action oriented developmental projects. Nepal needs to create the environment for interdependency among three nations.
Trilateral relations should be developed at citizens' level in various areas like trade, tourism and higher education. Foreign investors are seeking for safe and secure environment in Nepal. The government should ensure it. Nepal has suffered a lot due to fluctuating relations with India. Our bilateral relations have not taken root of win-win situation. We need tough diplomacy to safeguard our national interests and modernize foreign relations in the changed context. Let us hope Oli will advocate for these pressing needs during his Delhi visit.
The author, a PhD scholar, writes on Nepal's foreign policy
deependrasanchar@yahoo.com
Related story
Trace and test
