It is time to work hard for farmers. For Kathmandu’s bureaucrats and politicians, too, it is time to roll up their sleeves and get to work. As liquidity crises in financial institutions deepen, it is time to wind up the old fiscal and start anew with a brand new budget. And to the heavily-indebted politicians—those at the helm of the Big Three parties and the Madhesi Front—it is time to toil hard, negotiate hard and deliver on their promises. The latest promise they made on the night of May 28 (read May 29) requires them to finish the tasks of peace- and constitution-making in less than three months. That is by August 31.
RAY OF HOPE
As the clock ticks away, the biggest Nepali question is this: Will the big parties continue dialogues and tread the middle path and finally do it? Or, again, like before, will they come up with new excuses and not do it again? If they want it to happen, should not the extreme lines within the parties mellow down? This time around, it will be difficult for ´em to escape. For, pressure continues from all quarters--from Facebook groups such as ´Nepal Unites´ to peasants and shopkeepers--remember the two who recently slapped CA members?—as well as the Internationals.
So, come heavy rain or drizzles this monsoon, the big parties will have no choice but to bury their differences. And finish it all. And, thankfully, the early signs are not that disappointing. Despite reports of inter-party and intra-party bickering, the parties have looked serious. In the past two weeks since, they have agreed to: a) ready the first draft of the constitution by August 18 and; b) complete the basic work of peace process by August 27. The Differences Resolution Sub-Committee (DRSC), under the Constitutional Committee in the Constituent Assembly, has been meeting nearly regularly.
The sooner the deeply-divided Maoist party makes a unified and firm decision, the better it will be for the peace- and constitution-making process. The confused-looking Maoist top brass must realize that their indecision will further frustrate their combatants and, eventually, hurt the peace process.
The Army Integration Special Committee (AISC), too, looks busy, meeting thrice weekly. In its three-month-timetable, the committee has said that the regrouping will start from June 27. After survey teams visit the Maoist cantonments around the country and compile the wishes of the combatants, work will begin to separate those who wish to be integrated into a national security force, and those who wish to go for rehabilitation into separate categories. The resumption of business at the AISC is a welcome development.
And yet serious differences remain.
RESTRUCTURING DILEMMAS
As far as preparing the integrated draft of the constitution is concerned, the Maoist and the non-Maoist parties must agree on the contentious issues of the restructuring of the state, electoral system, system of governance, fundamental rights and so forth. On the issue of restructuring and federalism, the DRSC has emphasized the need for political consensus amongst the Big Three and the Madhesi Front. In the imminent negotiations, the Madhesi parties´ demand for ´Autonomous Madhes State´ will surely figure prominently.
That is a demand opposed by a section of the Tharus. And the main opposition Nepali Congress (NC) will pitch in with its own set of ideas such as dividing Nepal into not more than seven federal states—as opposed to the 14 proposed by the Maoist party. From electoral to judiciary and governance there are a myriad of contentious—and sensitive—issues the parties must find a solution to. As these issues are riling the parties internally, too, the onus is on the top leaders to settle it all. Too bad, owing to "sickness ailing" DRSC coordinator Prachanda, the sub-committee did not meet on Monday. Cynics suspect the reason for his absence could well be the "internal rifts" within the Maoist party.
INTEGRATION ISSUES
No less, if more, sensitive will be the issue of Maoist arms and army. And yet there is a silver lining. That the Maoist Supremo agreed to end the dual security of the parties´ top brass is a welcome development. Still the clique led by vice chairman Mohan Baidya Kiran has not sent off the Maoist combatants deployed for their security, casting a pall over the process of supposedly smooth integration and rehabilitation of the 19,000 Maoist combatants.
For the past five years, the Maoist party has used its "private army" as a lever to push its agenda. Ditto may not work now, yet attempts have not stopped, especially from the hard-line faction led by Kiran. The former rebel party has been pitching for ´jana-sambidhan´ and promulgation of ´National Security Policy´ before the integration and rehabilitation of its "private army." Yet the current balance of power, divided between the Big Three and the Madhesi Front, makes that kind of goal unachievable.
So the sooner the Maoist party (that currently seems deeply divided between not just two, but four factions, with the chairman and his three deputies busy grooming their respective coteries) makes a unified and firm decision, the better it will be for the peace- and constitution-making process. The confused-looking top brass must realize that their indecision will further frustrate their combatants and, eventually, hurt the peace process. The sooner the party decides on the numbers of combatants to be integrated, the easier it will be for the AISC to move forward.
BOTTOMLINE
Time is not on any party´s side this time around. Expecting quick returns, Prachanda did help J.N. Khanal grab the power. But as the crisis—an all-round crisis--drags on, and the nation totters on, neither Prachanda nor Khanal party stands united. The Madhesi Front is fourth largest. Strange as it may sound, the opposition Congress looks not just united but firm. The party´s just-concluded conclave has pushed for a mass movement or fresh elections if the mission is not concluded by August 31.
Word is: failure will surely have consequences.
Writer is a BBC Correspondent
nepal.surendra@gmail.com
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