When the blockade was still on and when some ministers of the Oli government visited China to discuss petroleum supply to Nepal, many thought that Oli could go to China first, like Pushpa Kamal Dahal in 2008 (After becoming PM, Dahal had first gone to China to attend the closing ceremony of the Olympic Games but he too said that his first 'official' visit would be to India. Many think Dahal went to China first only to assuage the anti-India forces and to show that he doesn't bow down to the Indian pressure).
But Oli perhaps understands the country's geopolitical reality better, so he waited until the blockade was lifted. However, according to some analysts, this has exposed "Oli's fake nationalist stand" (against India) which he seemed to have maintained throughout the blockade period.
Needless to say, India had imposed the blockade because it was not happy with Nepal's new constitution which was promulgated in September last year. As we all know, the Madhes-based parties, too, were (still are) against the constitution and launched protests. It is said that New Delhi as well as the Madhes-based parties wanted provisions for proportional representation and electoral constituencies based on population included in the constitution and redrawing of the provincial boundaries.
While the Oli government recently amended the constitution to address two of the three key Indian demands, India is yet to be assuaged on its third demand – redrawing of the provincial boundaries so as to address the demands of the agitating Madhes-based parties. Even a day before his India visit, Oli was saying that the high-level political body to resolve the provincial demarcation row would be formed before he left for India. The government did form such a body under the coordination of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa but the Madhes-based parties have not participated in it and Thapa is the sole member of the 11-member body so far.
Chairman Dahal arrives in New Delhi
This surely will have a bearing on the kind of welcome the PM gets in New Delhi.
However, the Nepali people do not expect much from the PM's visit this time around. In fact, the PM himself said at a press conference organized on the eve of his visit that he was going to India without any major agenda and that his priority would be to improve the bilateral relations which have soured in recent times.
Not a bad idea. However, it would not be a surprise if the Indian authorities raise the issue of the incomplete political body that has been formed without a Terms of Reference(ToR).
As far as the Nepali people are concerned, they want Oli to come back home with the Indian assurance that Nepalis will not have to suffer from another Indian blockade in the future. If Oli can achieve that, his visit would be successful in the eyes of the Nepali people. If he cannot, the much-awaited visit will pale into insignificance.
