A coalition government like the one headed by Madhav Kumar Nepal that resulted in the isolation of the Maoists – the largest as well as the most militant party – was bound to fail, which it did. Even the one that included the Maoists and was headed by another faction of the CPN-UML, which has friendly ties with them, could not succeed. Therefore, only a Maoist-led government was the last hope to conclude the task of peace building and constitution writing, a point not lost even among the opposition parties.
Despite such a favorable situation for the party, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the ambitious and manipulative party chairman of UCPN (Maoist), who always previously managed to get his sole candidature for premiership endorsed could not do that this time. Sick and tired of his tricky methods and duplicity, increasingly wary party colleagues that included friends and foes alike a couple of months earlier formed the ‘Dhobighat’ alliance and that forced Dahal to support Bhattarai’s candidacy this time. With Bhattarai and Dahal, both liberals albeit by Maoist standards, now joining hands to pursue a transformative course of action, especially with regard to the future of the Maoist combatants, the pro-rebellion faction of the party feels betrayed.
Bhattarai invited the wrath of the hardliners – who think that he has to be obliged to them as they claim/believe that they made him the prime minister – when he refused to be dictated by them. The furious radicals led by Mohan Baidya now seem determined to harass him in every possible way. The row over handover of the keys of the weapons containers to the Special Committee is just the beginning.
After all, except on rare and brief occasions like Dhobighat, ever since the ‘Labang’ and ‘Funtibang’ days some eight years before, they have always accused him of being a revisionist and an Indian stooge. Although their following in the party has steadily waned since the Balaju Plenum of 2007, Baidya and his followers are still powerful enough to cause enough trouble to Bhattarai. Facing and handling them will be a tough test for him. His success, therefore, will depend largely on the time and type of support he receives from his ambitious and still powerful chairman. But that is no less difficult. Given Dahal’s shrewdness and hunger for power, it seems unlikely that he will genuinely help his competitor achieve success.
Bhattarai is highly popular both among the masses and the educated lot because of his moral standards and pro-peace and constitution line. Unfortunately, Bhattarai’s image, efforts and vision won’t help him a lot for most of the solutions to the challenges that he faces lies with others.
Yes, for the Indians, the powerful external player in the realpolitik of this country, Bhattarai has always been the #1 choice among the Maoist rank that is full of leaders who harbor anti-India sentiment such as Baidya or the unpredictable Dahal. The reason cited by Madhesi parties, who have close links with New Delhi, for their mysterious last minute decision to support and join the Bhattarai-led coalition government is that ‘the Maoists are more accommodative than Nepali Congress (NC) toward the aspirations and cause of the Madhesis’. Fine, but wasn’t it the same Madhesis who voted against or stayed neutral toward Dahal during repeated rounds of prime ministerial elections just last year? So, the hand that glued Bhattarai and Madhesis together could be felt even if it could not be seen like in the past. Baidya and his anti-India disciples will therefore not miss a single opportunity to condemn Bhattarai for having ‘sold out’ to ‘Indian expansionists’.
On the other hand, Madhesi leaders, barring a few, who are well-known for their corrupt and opportunistic politics, will be more of a liability than an asset for Bhattarai. Successful power sharing with the ever demanding and unreliable partners will be another big ordeal for him. Madhesis may part ways any time accusing Bhattarai of non-compliance of their recent 4-point deal, especially the one regarding the bloc recruitment of 10,000 Madhesis into Nepal Army, which was included in the agreement for the consumption of Madhesi constituency amidst opposition from the rest of the nation. An alliance between forces and individuals having conflicting interests, ideologies, methods and constituencies can hardly last long. Some cracks have already surfaced. It may be recalled that Madhes uprising that took place some five years back was, to a great extent, directed against Maoist excesses and expansion in Tarai.
Paradoxically, Bhattarai faces no imminent threat from opposition parties. On the contrary, majority of NC and the CPN-UML rank and file wish him success openly or silently provided he helps to conclude the peace process and write a democratic constitution. With heroes of revolutions one after another turning into corrupt and power-hungry villains, Bhattarai is highly popular both among the masses and the educated lot because of his moral standards and pro-peace and constitution line. He enjoys acceptability among the international community as well although the Chinese, because of the India factor, are reported to be somewhat uncomfortable with him.
Unfortunately, Bhattarai’s image, efforts and vision won’t help him a lot for most of the solutions to the challenges that he faces lies with others. The reaction of the Baidya faction is typical of an ultra-left group that is losing its fight both within and outside the party. Till they finally choose one single course, either peace or insurgency, they will go on like this. They will postpone joining the government only to bargain for plum ministerial berths on the one hand and will pass resolutions to go for rebellion on the other. The group had reservations on the goals and methods of peace and mainstreaming from the very onset of the peace process.
In fact, the problems of today are by-products of the series of incomplete and faulty peace deals that took place in the past. In a hurry to become the hero of the peace initiative, to avenge the then King Gyanandra and to become the first president of the would-be-republic, late Girija Prasad Koirala signed and persuaded other leaders to sign the Indian brokered 12-point peace deal with the Maoists some six years back. He has little time, knowledge and understanding to detect its inherent lack of details and specifics with regard to the future of the Maoist combatants and subsequent implications that it would bring.
The Indians too didn’t bother much about this aspect. The result: Taking advantage of the ambiguity or void, the Maoists (now the Baidya group) have been bargaining for undue and irrational political and military gains. During the earlier years of the transition, the Maoists used to bargain with non-Maoist forces. With ideological, political, factional and personal infighting reaching new heights, now the bargain takes place between their intra-party groups. Bhattarai truly has a thorny path to tread on.
jeevan1952@hotmail.com
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