Given the senseless Indian embargo and China's lackluster response to our pleas for help, Nepal seriously needs a new foreign policy that takes into account the changing security dynamics in the region and the world, so that it does not find itself being "abandoned" by both its neighbors and the world at large. The oft-repeated notions of equi-proximity/distance, non-alignment and peaceful co-existence, as we have now seen, are not going to win us friends, instead they have led to many of our old friends to distance themselves from us.For some strange reason, after the downfall of the Panchayat regime, our world consists only of India and China. We started to distance ourselves from other states and now the others are distancing themselves from us. Our failure to garner international support in the face of Indian embargo and no visits at the level of head-of-state or head-of-government from "friendly countries" for more than a decade suffice to prove that our leaders' lack of vision have led to a situation no different than a self-imposed isolation.
If the present crisis is any guide, we must actively pursue the policy of cultivating as many third neighbors as possible. To begin with, we must redefine and upgrade our ties with the US and Japan. These two countries are as important to us as India and China. As things stand now, the only way to make Nepal important to the US and Japan is by using Nepal Army as an invaluable tool of our foreign policy.
The Americans
Nepal established diplomatic ties with the US in the 1940s. For most of the Cold War, Nepal seemed to be on the US priority list. Things started to change in the 2000s. Given the US-led war on terror, its involvement in Afghanistan and its improving ties with India, the US, as many analysts have already pointed out, outsourced its Nepal policy to India. During the height of Maoist insurgency in Nepal, the US, initially proposed to sell M-16 rifles to Nepal Army, but, sensing India's dissatisfaction, halted the sale/grant of M-16s to Nepal Army.
However, despite "outsourcing" its Nepal policy to India, the US is sending career diplomats as its ambassadors to Nepal, unlike campaign funders in the past. The US Army has been training Nepal Army on logistics and humanitarian missions. Therefore, there are reasons to believe that the US has not totally abandoned Nepal. Now, it is up to us to pick up the signal, figure out the US interests in Nepal and find ways to cooperate with it, if those interests do not impinge on our own national interests.
Things have changed in Nepal as well as in Asia. Given the US, Indian and Japanese interests in limiting China's growing influence in the region and forging of an (informal) alliance to counter various security threats, Nepal's moment has finally come. We need to spend on military modernization, become a NATO ally, participate in its exercises and develop interoperability capability with the NATO troops. This will help us play an important role in real combat and other humanitarian missions in case our help is sought, just like Mongolia has done with its partnership with NATO.
Investment in military modernization will be a one-time affair because if we are to become a NATO ally/partner in the region, the chances of getting monetary and other help to further our modernization efforts from NATO member states are quite high. Nepal can be a training ground for NATO troops for peace-keeping operations and mountain and jungle warfare. Our geography and the goodwill our military has earned through its participation in various peacekeeping missions around the world, again just as Mongolia has managed to do, can bring the US and other Western European countries closer to us.
Nepal to Nippon
Japan serves as a reminder of our ungrateful nature. Japan, even before the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries, had allowed Nepali students to study in its academic institutions as far back as 1902. After the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1956, Japan has been one of the biggest donors to Nepal. However, with the rise of China and its growing political influence in Nepal, we seem to have either forgotten or underestimated the huge amount of Official Development Assistance and other help from Japan. We mistakenly view China as replacing Japan in Nepal.
China and Japan have historical issues that have strained their relations, but we don't carry any baggage against Japan. Therefore, for us, the problems between Japan and China should not be an impediment to inch closer to Japan and support its regional initiatives. If Nepal joins or supports the (informal) Japan-India alliance developing in the South Asia/Indian Ocean Region, as Bangladesh has done, then, Japan can be a valuable third neighbor to Nepal, too.
There have been regular high-level visits between Japan and Bangladesh and Japan has pledged almost US $6 billion in assistance to Bangladesh over the next four-five years. All Bangladesh had to do was make its priorities clear and limit China's influence in the country by openly supporting the Japanese policy of "Proactive Contribution to Peace".
The total mismanagement of foreign relations in the last 20 years has put us in a very interesting position. For others, economic development leads to military modernization. But for us, modernization of military and making our preferences clear by doing away with the outdated notions of non-alignment seem the only way to make our presence felt in the international arena, win friends and embark on the path of sustained economic growth.
The author writes on Nepal's foreign policy
trailokyaa@yahoo.com
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