Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is these running around the country, giving lofty speeches laced with witty aphorisms, his specialty, and denigrating the Madheshi parties. In the past few days there has been no serious effort from his government to engage the agitating Madheshis. He seems to have calculated that the agitation in Tarai-Madhesh is losing steam and will in time peter out. This is a dangerous calculation. It is true that in the past week or so the mass of people seen at border sit-ins and other protest programs has thinned, for a number of reasons. As the protests have dragged into the fourth month the initial fervor is dying. This is also the time farmers head back to their fields to till land and plant new crops. But some people might still have come were it not for a bitter cold wave that has swept the Madheshi plains. The winter chill has made it impossible to stage 24/7 sit-ins on border points, mainly Birjung-Raxaul. But it would be wrong to infer from all these developments that the voices of protests in Madhesh have been silenced for good.In fact, the voices that have died down because of the change in season could just as easily be raised again. Madheshi parties on December 18th laid out a new protest plan for the next 10 days. They now say any future talks must be held in Madhesh, not Kathmandu. The Madheshi parties also realize that they will need to modify their agitation if they are to prevent it from completely collapsing. The twin amendment bill now tabled in parliament—to ensure proportional representation of all ethnic communities and delineate electoral constituencies on population basis—could have acted as a bride between the two sides. Even India has indicated that once the twin amendments are passed, the supply of goods could ease. But the Madheshi parties have refused to acknowledge this proposal and continue to insist that two Madhesh-only provinces spanning the entire Tarai belt is their bottom-line. As we have repeatedly emphasized in this space before, they must be more flexible. If they simply refuse to budge there can be no meaningful negotiations. The Madheshi parties, moreover, seem to believe that only through renewed pressure from the street can they make Big Three ready for two Madhesh provinces.
Both the sides are making a big gamble. Already, we have started to witness demonstrations for the reinstatement of monarchy and the Hindu state. The underground forces in Madhesh that had been dormant are stirring again. Netra Bikram Chand's Maoist party on December 16th bombed a satellite transmission station in Kathmandu. CK Raut is busy canvassing for an independent Madhesh and raising his own army. These are all worrying signs. Now that the amendment bill has been tabled in parliament, it must be passed at the earliest, with the approval of the agitating Madheshi parties. But this can happen only if Prime Minister Oli gets off his high horse and reaches out to protestors. It's in the interest of all moderate forces to engage in an atmosphere of compromise and nip the extremist forces in the bud.
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