The political and diplomatic worlds are once again heated as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House after his victory in the US presidential election. Given that the Republican Party has garnered a stronghold in both the Senate and the House as a result of Trump's daring presidential campaign, it would be comfortable for him to enact any bill he desires on both domestic and international agendas. While Trump himself is the harshest critic of China, many of his "loyalist" cum "hawkish" cabinet members will be around him, especially those who hold strong views or stance against China. In light of this, crucial tensions in the US-China trade, technology, and diplomatic spheres are likely to arise over the next four years, with significant ramifications in other parts of the world, as Trump has already announced that he will impose hefty tariffs on all the Chinese, Canadian and Mexican exports, including tech and EVs. Conversely, China has introduced a “zero-tariffs”policy to small states, particularly LDCs.
Unlike traditional IR theory, which holds that major powers would consider small states as “pigeon” of a “pigeonhole principle” and compel them to "bandwagon," "bargain," or "buffer," the Chinese zero-tariff policy would perhaps reshape IR by winning the hearts, minds, and spirit of several small states through emotional and psychological diplomacy. Whether the "blanket tariff"—that could elevate inflation—is truly an American "policy" or merely a "threat", under the pretext of negotiating stratagem, that the president-elect is imposing on China and its immediate neighbors may still be unclear to many Americans. The main concern, however, may be whether the rational Americans want a military confrontation in any part of the world or a tech and trade war with the largest trading partners along with its allies by means of a shrewd geo-tech interest.
The geo-tech interest
Following World War II and throughout the Cold War I, the US and the Soviet Union engaged in bipolar politics. After the Cold War I, the US became the only superpower by embracing technology, soft power, globalization, and an “open world economy” as its main economic drivers. By incorporating similar driving forces, China is becoming a dynamic nation with remarkable economic growth and technological advancements.
However, as time has gone on, techno-geopolitical developments have occurred, and the caliber of the digital and AI revolution has increased, so too has the idea and essence of bipolarity. As technology advances, geopolitics and technological warfare become increasingly complex, and powerful nations' geopolitical and geostrategic interests extend beyond their economies and borders to encompass a variety of issues, including trade, planetary, maritime, and tech affairs. Geo-tech interests, such as "tech influence," "tech intrigue," and "tech supremacy," have been the main focus of the powerful states since technology has been a key element of their strategic competition.
Technology, however, has massively contributed to the well-being of the global economy since the beginning of the technological revolution. Technology has equally added greater threats to a nation’s security and sovereignty—both physical and digital. Meanwhile, the diplomatic notion of ‘collaboration’ and ‘cooperation’ between the powerful countries has been altered to the astute idea of ‘containment’ and ‘confrontation.’ The powerful countries have shifted their interest from ‘geo-economic integration’ to ‘geo-strategic sprint,’ which is subsequently leading to ‘geo-tech intrigue.’ The ‘technological innovation’ and ‘digital revolution’ have been advancing toward ‘modern-day bipolarity’—the tech bipolarity—between the US and China. To achieve tech supremacy—the hallmark of contemporary techno-polarity—the two superpowers are contending with one another in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, cybersecurity, and tech, cloud and digital sovereignty. In any case, the crucial concern around the world is: Whether these tech superpowers respect other countries’ tech and digital sovereignty and shape the global technological future?
PM Deuba shifting to official residence in Baluwatar today
This article will assess the prospects of China and the US in various domains: technology, macroeconomics, defense structure and spending, and soft potentials, while the concept of world order has evolved from the traditional idea symbolized by "politico-polarity" to one that has been influenced by AI technology and sparked by "techno-polarity".
Techno-polarity: US-China Power Crunch
China—a politically Marxist and economically liberal country that believes in socialism—has massively invested in technology, innovation, infrastructure, research and development and wisely capitalized on 'soft powers’ and internal values including culture, civilization, morale, education, history, demography and geography. China is making marvelous headway—both politically and economically, which is perhaps due to the effective and meticulously functioning political and bureaucratic systems that the country has adopted. China asserts that the BRI aims to reshape "soft infrastructure" as a geo-economic strategy, which is likely to include digital infrastructures, soft power, and infrastructure development.
In addition to remarkable economic and social transformation, China has accomplished profound transformation on technological and diplomatic spheres. In the past two years, Beijing has hosted more than 150 heads of state and government, including the world leaders, from around the world, which is a remarkable accomplishment in the history of international relations and diplomacy. Hundreds of countries on every continent admire China, and desperately crave to join Beijing-led organizations and wish to maintain a long-term strategic partnership with it.
China has greatly benefited from economic liberalism and is said to be marching ahead to attain the goal of ‘Global Leadership in AI’ by 2030. To achieve this goal, it has massively invested in AI, information and data security, and produced a large number of engineers and AI experts. China produces more than 600,000 engineers annually, which is 70 percent higher than India, while China has four times more AI experts and engineers than the US (RAND). The tech sector in China, reportedly, is contributing to nearly 39 percent of GDP, while 80 percent of its GDP growth is determined by the application of technology. Chinese GDP is approximately $18 trillion, which is nearly 15 percent of the global GDP (SIPRI Fact Sheet- 2024, statista.com). China, the second largest economy in the world, has a larger GDP than that of the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth largest economies combined. China has been a great power for about 60 years and has aspired to become a new superpower. It has the world's strongest military force, with almost 2.5 million soldiers (Military Direct). The country spends about $231 billion annually on its military, which is 14 percent of global military spending (as of 2024, China Military). China's defense budget, which is second only to the United States, is again greater than the combined budgets of the world's third, fourth, fifth, and sixth largest economies.
The US—a longstanding realist country that believes in democratic capitalism—on the other hand, is actively seeking alliance support to oppose China under the pretext of liberal idealism, largely because of its long-standing ideals of “dominance and power balance”.Under the AUKUS agreement, the US and UK reportedly share intelligence and classified technology with Australia on the development of nuclear-powered submarines as well as other counter-defense technologies, including cyberwarfare, AI, quantum computing, and underwater technology. The AUKUS and QUAD alliances are focused on deploying the power of AI and military technology firepower, both of which lack geo-economic strategies. In an effort to counter China and its global geo-economic initiative on the BRI, the US also supports IPS and B3W, which are based on geo-strategic influence and geo-economic strategy. Also, the European Commission, an executive branch of the EU, also announced a plan to launch "Global Gateway," which would invest roughly $600 billion by 2027 in infrastructure development, including "green and digital transition," "transport links," and "underwater data cable connection to continents" worldwide (EU Commission Report, 2024).
The US has been a great power for over a century and a superpower for about 75 years. It has long held political, economic, and military sway over many regions of the world. The US has nearly 2 million soldiers; around $850 billion in military expenditure (nearly four times higher than China) in a year (as of 2024, DoD), which is nearly 17 times as much on foreign affairs (the US defense budget, which is 38 percent of the world’s total military spending, is larger than that of the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh largest economies combined). About $72 billion budget of its intelligence agencies and GDP more than $29 trillion, which is nearly 21 percent of the Global GDP (IDDS. World Arms Database SIPRI Fact Sheet- 2024, statista.com. The US military is the most powerful in the world and fortified with cutting-edge technology. Its satellites, which are used for military communications, mapping, and surveillance, are reportedly high enough to detect even the tiny objects in space, the ocean, or on the road (DoD). The tech sector in the US contributes nearly 12 percent of its GDP. The top tech and e-commerce companies in the US are Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Twitter (now X), and Amazon, of which the combined global user base exceeds the world's population.
India: a rising tech power
India is more likely to be one of the major tech powers because of its significant advancements in innovations, technology, and intelligence mechanisms. Over 350,000 engineers are produced in India each year, with employability 40 percent higher than in China (RAND). The country's tech sector accounts for about 8 percent of its GDP (as of 2024,), which is expected to be 10 percent by 2025 (statista.com). Given that the CEOs of Microsoft and Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, and several other well-known multibillion-dollar corporations, including Adobe Systems, IBM, and Micron Technology are Indians. Moreover, Silicon Valley is currently dominated by Indians.
The IMF's first deputy managing director is of Indian descent. Regardless of their professional association, every Indian-origin tech and financial doyen probably supports Indian national tech and financial interests in each of the companies abroad. Irrespective of the extent of the contours, they are anticipated to impact economic issues, coding and algorithmic sways, and tech and financial policies and strategies, which will ultimately give India a significant leverage on "Soft Power". India is making equal use of various military alliances and multilateral organizations, such as SCO, BRICS, QUAD, and IPS. Given that India continues to maintain strategic alliances with the two long standing Cold War adversaries—the US and Russia—India's influence, both geostrategic and geotechnical, plays a crucial role either in escalating or de-escalating the momentum of the techno-polar order. Conversely, once the world shifts to a techno-tripolar order, India is probably going to be a significant third power.
Leveraging from the tech potency
It is likely that the US and China will become a bipolar force in global politics, economy, and technology if their reciprocal growth competition in all domains—economy, defense, technology, and soft potentials—continues along the same trajectory in the years to come. Yet who will win the battle if they pledge to restrain each other? Insanity will surely prevail and human intelligence will fail if they do not apply their sense of intelligence while marshaling the power of AI and tech supremacy.
Accept it or not, China is poised to become a superpower to mega-power because of its rapid, smooth, and elegant growth. The more the US pushes strategies for containment or inducing chaos and instability in China, the higher it executes careful, cautious, calculative, and coherent diplomacy to make its global presence smoother, along with maintaining strategic relations with US allies, partners, and adversaries around the world.
While president-elect Trump has promised to end the international conflict, tech and trade wars brought on by tariffs might not be as destructive as hot wars that erupt from direct military confrontation. However, it is anticipated that both superpowers will resolve any conflicts in a rational, responsible, and equitable manner. They should take steps to develop multilateral tech and trade strategies through diplomatic channels rather than escalating the likelihood of confrontation, containment, and tech polarization. Essentially, the two great powers should explore their greater spirit and generosity for the greater good of people, society, humanity, and the tech and cyber world in order to uphold the legacy of their respective institutions and establish themselves as great and responsible global powers.
Nonetheless, the potential techno-polarity may present both opportunities and risks for Nepal. Nepal must be pragmatic enough to advance its technological and digital security, and intelligence capabilities beforehand. Nepal should build a robust cyberspace for daily life, economic vitality, and national security; prioritize the knowledge economy—knowledge-based economy, digital economy, tech economy, and information economy; and establish a radical intelligence unit to obtain time-sensitive data in real-time. Nepal could benefit considerably from the prominence of data and digital sovereignty in terms of power and prosperity, even though the world is on the verge of witnessing a techno-polar landscape.
The author is a techno-geopolitical analyst and geo-strategic thinker.
