A state capture although seemingly imminent was only a disguise. The Maoists are not in a hurry. The Maoist revolution in China itself took twenty-three years to reach its objective of overwhelming and ultimately overtaking the state. During those twenty-three years, Mao negotiated and joined with friends and foes alike. However, behind the curtains, away from the public eye, a different scene was being set and each time they negotiated or went to the government they came out more powerful, better-equipped and more resourceful. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is right in saying that they are not in the government for the sake of running the government, their goal is much larger. It is very important to ask then – if the Maoists really wanted to stay in the government till the constitution was drafted, could have any force, national or international, succeeded in stopping them?
The conspiracies were being hatched by the Maoists themselves. Even before anybody talked about the Nepal Army military coup during the much-debated Rookmangud Katawal case, the top echelons of the Maoist party were already circulating rumors about it. A peaceful army integration would have probably led to a meaningful conclusion to the peace process, constitution making and a viable multi-party democratic system. But we can only imagine that now. After the twelve-point agreement, the Maoists have halted their military mode and fundamentally adopted Baburam Bhattarai’s doctrine of capturing the state through democratic institutions. Hitler’s Nazi party also came to power in a similar fashion, i.e. through democratic elections before introducing their fascist and totalitarian governance modality into practice.
This is where an exit strategy comes in. Nine months into power and the Maoists were out of the government just like any other party. The Maoists are well aware of this and they want all political stakeholders to be deluded into believing that they are an ordinary pawn in politics while they strategically position their pieces to reach an ultimate checkmate. There is no doubt that conspiracies were hatched against the Maoists through various violent and non-violent forms like the Tarai bandha, House disruptions, PM Dahal’s video tape, international pressures, etc. However, it is important to consider how the Maoists in various ways were garnishing conspiracies devised against them with counter conspiracy in the form of an exit strategy. Satta Kabja (state capture) was made to look imminent but they are not fools to do it immediately by firing a locally- and internationally-backed army chief or forcibly enforcing a controversial retirement age plan. It will be much smoother; the way in which they maneuvered the Constituent Assembly elections.
The Maoists have left a dearth of magnanimous issues for the upcoming government and an unfulfilled dream of ‘New Nepal’. Some see this as an epic victory over the Maoists, whereas I see it as a one stage silent victory of the Maoists toward their ultimate goal. Their exit has virtually transferred all the blame for any failure onto the next government while the Maoists can sit in the opposition, get their twenty-thousand army paid, mobilize YCL and cadres with the resources usurped during their stay in the government, criticize rival parties for bowing down to foreign powers and still threaten to go back to war with their enlarged army. Their exit is to have an upper hand in the constitution-making process and ultimately in the elections that would follow. Their rhetoric will be based on the incompetence of the upcoming government, foreign interference and the lack of support by other parties to fulfill the New Nepal dream while the Maoists were in government. This will be the basis for their appeal to the public for majority seats in the elections.
Most importantly, the cost of going back to war is not only huge for the two armies; it will be much greater for the Nepali general public, and that’s why they will be compelled to vote for the Maoists. This is where an eventual state capture would come from – getting a majority in the elections. Once their ultimate aim to achieve a majority is attained, they would then be able to legitimately put into practice what they have been talking about – there will be no Nepal Army but a People’s Liberation Army, YCL will be brutally mobilized against members supporting other parties, press will be made to toe their line and smaller parties will either be co-opted or crushed thus establishing a one-party system. An epoch of Maoist government rule will thus be established in Nepal. The Maoists exit has no doubt brought a new political situation in the country. Although some see it as an end to Maoist adamancy and toward a more consensus-based politics, their strategic exit cannot be taken lightly. Something is definitely brewing.
biraj31@snu.ac.kr
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