Let me start with an easy prediction: Politically speaking, 2011 will be an eventful year. It’s actually going to be a make or break year.
The political calendar for 2011 looks full.
The year will be crucial, starting from the very first month, January. UNMIN’s current mandate ends on January 15, and though the UCPN(M) is mounting a rearguard action to keep UNMIN in Nepal, the UN body is almost certain to pack up and go. So one of the biggest tests in the peace process and the political parties’ ability and willingness to work together is going to come pretty soon. Will the political parties agree on an alternative monitoring mechanism once UNMIN is gone? My bet is, they will. They are likely to agree to bring the Maoist combatants under the purview of the Special Committee and the Secretariat formed under it will be given the authority to oversee the combatants.
There is also another important political event in January-- electing a new prime minister. Who will be the next prime minister? Hard to say, but the chances seem evenly split between NC leader Ram Chandra Paudel and UML Chairman Jhalanath Khanal.
Until a few weeks ago Khanal seemed resigned to accepting Paudel as the next prime minister but wanted to make sure that he would replace him after a specified timeframe.
No longer. He now sees a real chance for himself. What has changed in a period of a few weeks? Just before the Maoists’ Palungtar Plenum, Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal had told both Paudel and Khanal that his party would stay in the opposition and had urged them to cobble a NC-UML coalition. Significantly weakened during the plenum and now struggling to assert his leadership in the party, Dahal has changed his mind and seems to have given his word to Khanal to support his bid for prime minister.
Two strands of logic could have been at work behind Dahal’s change of mind: First, supporting Khanal will create divisions between the NC and UML and make things easier for his own party, especially with regard to dealing with the complicated issues of the peace process; and second, if Khanal becomes prime minister with the backing of his party, Dahal will have an excuse to ‘defer’ the program for revolt that hardliners in the Maoist party led by Mohan Baidya are pressing for.
Is Khanal, then, the next prime minister? Only if he passes two hurdles. One, Dahal will have to succeed in endorsing Khanal from the Maoist party’s central committee, where he is likely to face a fierce challenge from the Baidya faction. This faction would see such a move as deliberate distraction from the revolt.
The second obstacle is the UML central committee itself, and it’s a far more difficult one to overcome. Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and K P Oli have a thin majority in the central committee. So Khanal’s success will depend upon whether he is able to win the support of four to five senior UML leaders who have not sided with either Khanal or the Nepal-Oli camp, fearing an impending split in the UML. It’s going to be a fierce fight in the UML this time round because this is not just about who will become the next prime minister. It is equally, if not more, about which camp will have final control in the party. Prime Minister Nepal is already plotting a comeback in the party. It will be a Battle Royale and each side has fifty percent chance of winning. The crisis in the UML is likely to be one of the top political stories of 2011, and don’t be surprised if the crisis becomes insurmountable and the UML splits once again.
The outcome of this battle will largely decide the short-term political course of Nepal. A win for Khanal means, there will be a UML-Maoist coalition; there will be no revolt, but nor will the peace process progress at a fast pace since both Khanal and Dahal will be constrained by their own parties.
A victory for the Nepal-Oli camp will clear the way for a NC-UML coalition and it will turn the heat on the Maoists, who will find themselves facing a hard choice between peace and revolt.
Will the Maoists launch a revolt? Not likely. If the Maoists abandon the peace process and constitution writing altogether and push for a revolt, it will weaken the political parties and moderates, who still want a peace deal, and give the army and India an upper hand. The army-India coalition will be a difficult one to negotiate with and Maoist Chairman Dahal understands that such a coalition will be impossible to defeat.
The Maoists will, therefore, not go for an all-out revolt but press on with a strong protest program in hopes of forcing the parties toward negotiations. Dahal also understands that India and the international community see the Maoists as a problem but they are also not thinking of a solution keeping the Maoists away from the table. There are indications that India is actually thinking of renewed engagement with the Maoists.
A million dollar question now: What will happen to the CA after May 28, 2011? The constitution is unlikely to be written in the next five months unless there is a quick India-brokered deal, but there will be good progress in the peace process by the time the CA deadline looms near. And it will give the parties enough excuse to extend the CA yet one more time. There will be a public hue and cry but the parties will find it hard to part ways and take personal risks.
Privately, senior party leaders are already sounding conciliatory-- “Post-conflict is a complicated period and perhaps we were being too optimistic and less realistic with out deadlines,” said a senior UML leader. Maoist Vice-chairman Baburam Bhattarai was reminding his constituency in Gorkha last week that constitution drafting is an arduous enterprise and it took so many years in South Africa. In the end, the leaders are likely to come together with yet another and more detailed roadmap for peace and constitution and extend the CA deadline.
Finally, a grim prediction for Dahal in 2011. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s leadership is going to be further weakened in 2011. The only scenario in which Dahal will become stronger is the successful completion of a revolt -- a slim chance. If Dahal drags his feet on the revolt, the Baidya faction is likely either to pull the plug on him or desert the party. A failed revolt or even failure to announce one will only vindicate Dr Bhattarai’s stance that the domestic and international situation is not ripe for revolt. In such a scenario, Bhattarai may mount a leadership challenge against Dahal.
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