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Oscar 2009: Predictions

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KATHMANDU, Feb 19: “I think the Oscars are an odd phenomena because what they’re really about is not the best movies of a given year, but the American film industry’s image of itself.” NY Times film critic A.O. Scott said in a Charlie Rose show recently. If it is the image, and many believe it is, this year could very well be the year of Bollywood. [break]

And director Danny Boyle is leading the east with his directorial genius Slumdog Millionaire. He has been able to sweep most of the top prizes including the Golden Globes, DGA, WGA, BAFTA and other awards with weird initials. While Dev Patel and Freida Pinto were shunned off for best actor and actress, the 10 nominations at the Oscars this year, including the best picture and director, look like a winning bet for the Millionaire director.





Slumdog Millionaire

 



Most of the times, the best director wins the best film as well, but not always. Boyle may sweep both, looking at the current popularity of the movie and the marketing stratagem it’s using. Whether he deserves to win both, well we can argue that.


The movie tells a story of life, vigor and humor, as well as sorrow and pain. In our days, the whole world is going all mellow and maudlin, in other words Hindi (or Bollywoodish, meaning overtly sappy), over recession, war, impoverishment and suffering. And Slumdog caters exactly to that. It’s a mushy love story with a happy ending, and hits right at the spot for those mawkish hearts.


So we would be surprised if this trophy is waltzed away by anyone but Millionaire. However, our problem with the Slumdog is exactly that. It is a cutesy little sentimental movie with cliché ending. So Bollywood, with a different POV. If Danny Boyle did not have a Bollywood-theme movie, he probably would not have gotten a nomination.




Danny Boyle

 



The Reader, nominated for best movie and the director Stephen Daldry nominated for best director is a strong contender and force to be reckoned with. It might fabulously spoil the night for Boyle and one billion Indians. The Reader truly deserves the best movie, if not Stephen Daldry for the best director. And so far, Hollywood marketing wunderkind Harvey Weinstein has been successful in working the Oscar magic in promoting the movie for the golden guy, including pushing of release date to tally with Revolutionary Road, another movie with the same actress. And it did help Kate Winslet win the best actress and the movie, the best film nomination. Winslet absolutely deserved it. 


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a dark horse with beautiful narration of a story line that is quite impossible to think otherwise. The movie is a true work of art by director David Fincher. However, there has been more criticism of the movie than needed for the Oscar win. The Milk and Frost/Nixon are good movies, just not good enough compared to Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire.


But the problem with best director award for Stephen Daldry (The Reader) or Gus Van Sant (Milk) is that they cut each other out. They are both good and have amazing movies out this time.


The Reader is gaining fast speed. And Benjamin Button has pushed the right buttons. So, it will take a whole lot of luck, along with a Phone-a-Friend perhaps, for the beloved Brit Danny Boyle to win even with a good list of favorite’s cult movies like Trainspotting and 28 Days Later.


This is for the movie. For the best director, Boyle does deserve the accolade.




Mickey Rourke

 



The Best Actor has a tough competition. Brad Pitt is extremely good and apt in Benjamin Button, but probably not as good as Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. 56-year old Rourke is a comeback kid, literally – maybe not the kid part – and plays a variation of himself in the movie. Nobody justifies the role better.


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The thing about Oscars is people love comebacks. A former heartthrob of immense stature and good movies under his belt goes through a career shift to boxing, is undefeated in 8 fights, with six wins (4 by knock-out) and two draws, suffers multiple injuries including a broken nose, toe, ribs, a split tongue and a compressed cheekbone and comes back to acting. This is Rourke’s real life. And what does he play – an over-the-hill wrestling star with a comeback and gives a tender, heart-breaking performance. An instant winner.


If not, Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) has a slight edge over the perpetual Oscar darling Sean Penn, who does a vivid portrayal of gay rights activist Harvey Milk, in Milk. Langella plays Nixon and he is Nixon.


Do not doubt Meryl Streep’s chances. She is a powerful actress with highly respected personality and intelligence. But the Best Actress should go for Kate Winslet for her amazing performance in The Reader (and also for giving us another superb one for the un-nominated Revolutionary Road). She is so good in The Reader that it actually transforms this tragic movie into a beautiful piece on love. Winslet has done a terrific job playing a former concentration camp guard in this Holocaust movie. Her sixth nomination means she will have an upper hand in garnering sympathy votes if not just Oscar votes (add to that Harvey Weinstein’s blessing). Angelina Jolie, Anna Hathaway and Melissa Leo are moderates.


Heath Ledger will win the best supporting actor. Duh! His performance in The Dark Knight is good enough to win him a posthumous, not just a sympathy. Robert Downey, James Brolin and Philip Seymor Hoffman are great in their own ways. But Ledger is simply great as a character we are familiar with, and yet has been able to make it more terrifying, tragic and immensely prevailing. It’s easy to dismiss this as a simple posthumous Oscar, but he really deserves, dead or alive.


Traditionally Best Supporting Actress is the most unpredictable major category, for example Marisa Tomei´s shocking win for My Cousin Vinny and Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls. This time, if it does not take the same road, Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Viola Davis for Doubt will battle down a neck-and-neck race this year. Or who know, Marisa Tomei may repeat history and take home an Oscar for The Wrestler. About who deserves it, definitely Viola, who in a 10-minute show, completely outdoes Meryl Streep and takes the movie to a different level. She steals the show. Cruz might have a slight upper hand for being nominated in Best Actress for 2006 Volver, which she lost to Helen Mirren for The Queen.


Andrew Stanton for Wall-E and Dustin Lance Black for Milk make a fierce competition for the original screenplay. In Bruges is a fun movie and might just creep in, but maybe not an Oscar winner enough. Stanton’s Wall-E is a serious masterpiece and a viewer’s choice. The win would make Stanton the first writer to collect the writer award for an animated movie. But Milk stands as a serious challenge as the story of Harvey Milk, a gay political activist in California, a very Oscar material. The writer also won Writer’s Guild Award (WGA) earlier this year, making him the most powerful dark horse.


Eric Roth comes strong as a possibility for Benjamin Button while Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire) follows closely in the best adapted screenplay. It was a sheer challenge on Roth’s part to adapt a world famous short story to a 2 hour 46 minutes long epic, certainly not an easy task. And the movie shows he has taken the job seriously and resulted splendidly. However, Beaufoy might win, because sincerely the world has gone all Bollywood. Also, he has treated the story with a happy ending and people love happy endings. Oh, and he won the BAFTA, WGA and Golden Globes. That is why he might win the golden man.





 



There is no other option than for Wall-E to win the Best Animation feature. Kung Fu Panda was witty and fun, but Wall-E is all that and so much more. It’s witty, funny, wistful, romantic, dazzling and robots and all this while we are arguing it should have been nominated for a Best Picture. And if Bolt wins, the world will be a sad place for mainstream animated feature movie fans like us.


French The Class is so good, it will make your head spin. But Waltz With Bashir will probably win. Having said that, the international category is always a daunting one to forecast. Bashir we say because it’s Israel, it’s war and it’s Lebanon.


We would not know much about the technical awards even if we tried to. Original Song will go to A.R. Rahman, deservingly. First, he has a double whammy. Second the third song from Wall-E is almost forgettable. Third, both the songs are good and catchy.


81st Academy Awards is slated for February 21, Sunday. You can watch it live from the Kodak Theatre. Contact your local cable for more details.


COMPLETE LIST OF NOMINATION:


1. Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Milk

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire


2. Actor

Richard Jenkins for The Visitor

Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn for Milk

Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler


3. Actress

Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie for Changeling

Melissa Leo for Frozen River

Meryl Streep for Doubt

Kate Winslet for The Reader


4. Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin for Milk

Robert Downey Jr . for Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt

Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road


5. Supporting Actress

Amy Adams for Doubt

Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis for Doubt

Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler


6. Director

David Fincher for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Ron Howard for "Frost/Nixon"

Gus Van Sant for "Milk"

Stephen Daldry for "The Reader"

Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire."


7. Foreign Film

The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany

The Class, France

Departures, Japan

Revanche, Austria

Waltz With Bashir, Israel.

 

8. Adapted Screenplay

Eric Roth and Robin Swicord for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

John Patrick Shanley for Doubt

Peter Morgan for "Frost/Nixon

David Hare for "The Reader"

Simon Beaufoy for "Slumdog Millionaire


9. Original Screenplay

Courtney Hunt for Frozen River

Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky

Martin McDonagh for In Bruges

Dustin Lance Black for Milk

Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter for WALL-E


10. Animated Feature Film

Bolt

Kung Fu Panda

WALL-E


11. Art Direction

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

The Duchess

Revolutionary Road


12. Cinematography

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire


13. Sound Mixing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL-E

Wanted


14. Sound Editing

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL-E

Wanted


15. Original Score

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat

Defiance, James Newton Howard

Milk, Danny Elfman

Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman

WALL-E, Thomas Newman


16. Original Song

Down to Earth from WALL-E, Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman

Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman and Gulzar

O Saya from Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam


17. Costume

Australia

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Duchess

Milk

Revolutionary Road


18. Documentary Feature

The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)

Encounters at the End of the World

The Garden

Man on Wire

Trouble the Water


19. Documentary (short subject )

The Conscience of Nhem En

The Final Inch

Smile Pinki

The Witness

From the Balcony of Room 306


20. Film Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire


21. Makeup

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Hellboy II: The Golden Army


22. Animated Short Film

La Maison en Petits Cubes

Lavatory Lovestory

Oktapodi

Presto

This Way Up


23. Live Action Short Film

Auf der Strecke (On the Line)

Manon on the Asphalt

New Boy

The Pig

Spielzeugland (Toyland).


24. Visual Effects

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

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