It seems that the new cold war has arrived.
The world is undeniably shifting toward a multipolar order, one characterized by openness, diversity, collective decision-making, and universal security. The United States no longer stands unchallenged as it did at the beginning of the 21st century. Partly because of the foreign policy of the United States, which was war against terror.
In recent years, the geopolitical landscape has been going through profound changes due to the complex triangular relations between China, Russia, and the United States. The ongoing military operations initiated by Russia are supposed to change the geopolitical map of Eastern Europe and shake the foundations of contemporary world order. This has sparked intense competition among all of these three powers as they navigate a new era of geographical retaliation. In fact, the roots of special military operations in Ukraine are not a singular incident, but rather a culmination of historical concerns stemming from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) eastward expansion in Russia's backyard. Russia recognizes that NATO's such behavior poses a direct security threat that undermines its sovereignty. China justified Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 by arguing that it was a natural adjustment of borders, while the West was more concerned with the idea of responsibility to protect Ukraine. Ukraine was supposed to maintain neutrality in this geopolitical game. Ukraine's internal and external political affairs have disrupted its neutrality. However, the only way to stabilize the region is to maintain Ukraine’s neutrality, and any long-term solution should include restrictions on its military capacity. The cold political climate in the region has now engulfed Europe in an arms race, leading to a new cold war-like situation. Besides that, Russia also views the process of democratization, particularly the “Fourth Wave of Democratization”, coined by political scientist Michael McFaul, as illogical. Therefore, Russian military operations were an attempt to push back the United States and its allies and maintain a strategic sphere of influence in the region. As a result, Russia has been facing severe economic sanctions for a long time. Despite frequent economic sanctions and attempts to isolate Russia, some economic outcomes are beyond imagination. Ironically, Russia's economy has managed to outpace its European counterparts in growth, boasting a rate above 3%. It vividly shows that the policy of sanctioning Russia has failed at this point of time.
Given that there were no formal (treaty) arrangements to end the Cold War, it appears to have been an unfinished project. During the Cold War, the United States attempted to contain the Soviet Union by foregrounding China. Today, in the era of the new cold war, China and Russia have such limitless cooperation that the United States lacks a policy to deal with the combined strength of the two regional big powers. During a virtual class on International Relations at the Sichuan University, Dr. Wang Jina Ping stated that China's size makes it impossible to be contained. Undoubtedly, a continent-sized nation like China, deeply integrated into the global economy, may find the containment policy confusing. Now, despite a glorious history of engagement, China and the United States have also been at odds in recent years over a number of issues, including trade, the Taiwan question, and the South China Sea disputes. It seems that the new cold war has arrived.
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The world is undeniably shifting toward a multipolar order, one characterized by openness, diversity, collective decision-making, and universal security. The United States no longer stands unchallenged as it did at the beginning of the 21st century. Partly because of the foreign policy of the United States, which was war against terror. The war on terror policy spanned nearly two decades, incurring significant economic costs and harming its global image. Today, China has emerged as a strategic competitor across military, political, and economic fronts and Russia, once a weakened partner, is now a tough rival. Washington’s arms control agreements with Moscow have disintegrated, and with rising nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, the global security framework is under severe strain. The world's current state disrupts the existing order, yet no new order has emerged, leading to increasingly vulnerable situations. Furthermore, the European Union's integration crisis and the necessity for reforms at international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank, and the Security Council of the United Nations are becoming more evident. In this context, “the role of emerging blocs like BRICS—positioned as a possible alternative to the UN—can become increasingly institutionalized, while the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) may emerge as a security guarantee for Eurasia”, opines Professor Stanislav L. Tkachenok at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia.
The international system has perceived China's rise as peaceful. Since the late 1970s, with its first opening up for the world, Beijing has dexterously navigated the world stage by minimizing enemies and maximizing friends, allowing for speedy economic growth and military modernization. Now, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), sometimes referred to as the country's second opening up, is commonly known as the "going global" strategy. With this policy endeavors, Deng Xiaoping’s strategy of concealing one's capabilities and maintaining a low profile has been the days of the past. Now, China is changing its position from being a passive rule-follower to a proactive rule-setter in world politics. However, this very success has triggered growing unease in Washington, leading the U.S. to embrace containment policies aimed at slowing China's rise. This includes forming anti-Chinese alliances and escalating trade tensions. Nevertheless, China's careful diplomacy, especially its partnerships across the world, especially Russia suggests that it will be difficult to contain.
It has been referring to China-Russia relations as 'no limits', signifying a strategic transition towards more profound connections. The economic relations between the two countries have become more prominent, ranging from sectors such as trade to logistics, security, and even cultural exchange. For instance, in the past, individuals would move to Russia to pursue technical education, but today, Russian students are increasingly choosing to study and earn in China. In this respect, Russia's increasing reliance on China signifies that Moscow views Beijing not just as an economic partner but as a long-term strategic ally.
Accusations of China stealing U.S. technology and violating prior trade agreements China is a long-term strategic challenge to US hegemony in Asia and globally. The United States has blamed China for eating their lunch. Nearly all Democrats and Republicans agree that China's foreign policy issue is shaping the U.S. defense budget, driving the effort to strengthen partnerships in Asia, and encouraging an expanding high-tech trade war. Today, the Biden administration sees China as a great existential threat. The National Security Strategy (NSS) recognizes that China presents America's most consequential geopolitical challenge. In a similar vein, Xi Jinping points out that the biggest source of chaos in the present-day world is the U.S., and the U.S. is the biggest threat to China's security.
Russia is immune to the sanction of the United States and the West. Sanctions have only strengthened this bond, with Russia learning valuable lessons from its continued economic growth despite being under heavy Western sanctions. By ignoring calls for sanctions to be lifted and focusing instead on creating a sanctions-free economic environment, Russia is further integrating with China and other non-Western countries through member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) like Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia.
In cases of direct or proxy war among the three nations, hybrid warfare will get its momentum. Hybrid war combines all measures from military aid to economic sanctions to propaganda to cyberattacks. It has blurred the lines between war and peace. The current conflict between Russia and the United States over Ukraine is a prime example of this new form of warfare. Hybrid wars, unlike conventional warfare, are easy to initiate but challenging to conclude due to the decentralized nature of war tools, which are not always under direct government control. For China, hybrid warfare presents both opportunities and challenges. While Beijing has maintained its diplomatic balancing act, it must now consider the implications of the United States-Russia conflict for its own strategic goals. Hybrid peace, where conflict is managed but never fully resolved, may be the new reality for China, Russia, and the United States.
All of these three countries simultaneously faced deteriorating foreign policy conditions, whereas twenty years ago or so all of them were relatively in a much more peaceful environment. The fate of the future world order still depends on the ability of the Troika to control rivalry and on the results of such rivalry. All three powers, for various reasons, have found themselves in a situation where the tasks of containment, expanding confrontation, and the need to resolve security issues involve using force or the threat of its use. Past economic ties have not held back political contradictions. It appears that we are just beginning the process of escalation. After all, the real fight between the two key global rivals—the USA and China—is yet to come. Before it’s too late, the relationship should be managed in a good way. The best way to do so is to minimize the number of one’s enemies while multiplying one’s number of friends.
Indeed, the world order is developing rapidly, and the United States, Russia, and China are all contesting for control of the upcoming transformation. The key players in this triangular nexus have the ability to manage rivalry while seeking areas of cooperation. It will definitely determine the future of international relations. While peaceful competition remains a possibility, the shadow of war, both conventional and hybrid, remains a significant concern. As we move forward, the greatest challenge will be maintaining the strategic balance between cooperation and competition, ensuring that any future conflicts or wars can be managed without escalating out of control. Only by finding this balance act will the three powers be able to navigate the complex global geopolitical environment they now find themselves in.
(This article is partially inspired by the guest lecture delivered by Prof. Stanislav L.Tkachenok, D. Phil. (Economics), a Professor at Saint Petersburg State University and an Expert at the Valdai Club. The lecture was entitled "In After of Special Military Operation: Navigating the Complex Triangular Nexus between China, Russia, and the United States," held on October 10, 2024, at the School of International Relations, Sichuan University, China).
