Even after more than three months of indefinite strike in the Tarai belt, the government has not been able to break the ice with the Madheshi and Tharu groups who have been agitating against the biased provisions of the new constitution. Of course, there have been dialogues between the government's talk team and the agitating groups, but to no avail.The government talk team believes most demands of the Madheshi and Tharu people have already been addressed in the new constitution. The agitating groups, on their part, feel the government is not serious about their demands. As such, the stand-off between Kathmandu and Madhesh continues.
However, the indefinite strike in Tarai together with the economic blockade imposed by Madheshi and Tharu communities on main Nepal-India border points has paralyzed entire country. Nearly 70 percent of goods bound for Nepal are not entering the country because of the blockade imposed by protesters at the Birgunj-Raxaul custom point.
Cut in supply of essentials, including food, medicines and oxygen cylinders has put health services out of gear, while the closure of educational institutions, banks, industries and halt of agricultural activities have far-reaching implications on the national economy. As various international agencies have pointed out, Nepal is now on the brink of a serious humanitarian crisis.
Recent data shows that Nepal already has incurred loss of US $6 billion due to the latest Madhesh uprising. In the national economy of around US $20 billion, this is a substantial loss. Expectations are that the rate of economic growth would go down to one percent, or even lower.
In the meantime certain vested groups have emerged to take advantage of the growing humanitarian crisis. Those are the people who don't want early settlement of the problem. Such people in power, politics and business have found the most opportune time to plunder the country's resources at the cost of the poor people.
As there are no development activities, the resources of the state have been misused in the name of addressing the agitation in Madhesh. There are also business persons who are thriving by hoarding goods and selling them in black market at exorbitant prices. The crisis, it's said, has resulted in a windfall for smugglers. Such people are bent on polarizing the country and continuing to profit from the ensuing chaos. Even knowing full well only dialogue with agitating Madheshi and Tharu leaders and accommodating their demands in the constitution could ensure long-term peace and stability these profiteers won't let meaningful talks happen.
Instead, they like to blame India for the economic blockade, though everyone can see that Madheshi and Tharu protesters are blocking the entry of goods through the main trading routes at Nepal-India border. India has been made a scapegoat by vested interests as this helps them hide their ill motives and mask their inability to handle the situation.
It has become clear that vested interest groups are not serious about identity-based demand of the Madheshi and Tharu ethnic communities who want one or two states in the Tarai region. They also don't want to consider the demand of population-based election for the House of Representatives and the National Assembly in federal Nepal. They also want to overlook the demand to remove flaws in citizenship provisions in the new constitution. Nor has the demand for proportional representation in all government mechanisms found many takers.
Unfortunately, the vested interests look down upon the Madheshis and Tharus as not much different from the Indians. Quite often, the loyalty of those people is questioned, though they have been at the forefront when it comes to safeguarding territorial integrity of the country through the ages. Instead of honoring them, a substantial section of the Tharus and other tribal groups in Tarai were evacuated from their lands starting in 1960s and most of their land was grabbed by outsiders with the support of the state. It was also forbidden for anyone during the Panchayat regime to set up industries within eight km of Nepal-India border with the intention of making them economically weak.
Even to this day the budgetary allocation for development activities in Tarai districts is far lower than corresponding allocation for the hill districts. On one or the other excuse, attempts have been made to discourage the growth of infrastructural facilities, including roads, in the Tarai. Even law enforcement authorities, who are mainly non-Madheshis, do not treat native Madheshis as equal citizens.
The vested interest groups are not interested in normalizing the supply of goods from India to Nepal. Rather they are more interested in buying expensive oil from a third country other than India to serve their ulterior motives. They are employing fake nationalistic slogans to import goods at a higher price, which otherwise could be available next door at much cheaper rates. At a time the government machinery is already suffering from aid-indigestion, they want to mobilize more foreign aid on the pretext of removing the economic blockade.
It is believed that these same vested interests spoiled the positive environment when the government's talk team was making some headway in its negotiations with the agitating groups in Tarai. To add fuel to the fire, security agencies provoked agitators by using excessive force and also by setting their tents on fire at Miteri Bridge along Birgunj-Raxaul custom point. Things were soon back to square one.
Now if the government continues to ignore the fact that the agitation in the form of economic blockade is the outcome of suppression of Madheshi and Tharu people there can be no meaningful solutions. The government should rather engage in serious dialogue with Madheshi and Tharu representatives and address their aspirations in the constitution, either by amending or rewriting it to make it more inclusive. But if it chooses to play into the hands of vested interests by inviting further confrontation with Madhesh, it will also have to be responsible for any untoward consequences. The ball is now firmly in government's court.
The author is a Kathmandu-based economist
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