Nepal joyously promulgated the new constitution on September 20th. The first Constituent Assembly elected in 2008 had failed primarily because of Maoists who stuck to ethnic agenda to cater to their ethnic constituencies. So when the second CA completed its task of constitution-writing it came as a relief to all Nepalis. But Madheshi parties objected because they felt the new constitution split their consolidated vote-banks among several provinces. Their protests in Tarai have claimed 50 lives so far.To make matters worse, India has imposed an "undeclared" economic blockade, which it attributes to unrest in Tarai. Nepal has assured security for transport workers but the blockade continues. It makes us wonder whether this is the result of Indian irredentism over Madhesh or revival of Nehru's doctrine of Indian expansionism. This blockade has already led to losses worth over US $6 billion to national economy, equivalent to the losses from April/May earthquakes. It will also have long-term economic impact on Nepal.
People had hoped Prime Minister K P Oli would take appropriate diplomatic measures to end blockade and ease the daily lives of people. But he is proving to be as tardy as his predecessor, Sushil Koirala. He is being criticized for appointing half a dozen deputies. His November 14th address to the nation failed to chalk out practical solutions to the Indian blockade.
Nepal relies heavily on India for food, fuel and other vital supplies as its geography restricts easy access to northern neighbor, despite China's willingness to help us. The disruption of road links to China by recent earthquakes made us even more dependent on India. Trade diversification with China is difficult at this point.
Foreign observers don't notice Indian involvement in trade interruption because perishable goods such as fruits, vegetables, and a few tankers of petroleum and gas products enter Nepal each day. It seems from the outside that Madhesh agitation is the sole cause of the blockade.
Many Indians and Madheshis take turns at the border areas to block vehicular traffic which Nepal Government has no jurisdiction to forcibly clear. India has been openly supporting protestors by arranging for their logistics and has shown no inclination to discourage their violent activities against Nepal. At the root of all this trouble is federalism.
The State Restructuring Commission of the first CA had proposed 11 provinces. Madheshi leaders argue that this report, which provisioned for autonomous federal provinces as per the sentiments of people living in various regions including Madhesh, is their bottom-line. They argue that the new constitution does not recognize this report nor does the new charter respect their language and culture. They warn that if the constitution does not incorporate their bottom line, the agitation will continue. But addressing their demands is not easy.
According to 2011 census, there are 105 ethnic groups in Nepal. Except for 23 ethnic/caste groups which have distinct majority in several Village Development Committees (VDCs) and municipalities, others are scattered across the country. An ethnic map of Nepal shows no contiguous distribution of any ethnic/caste groups. However, Chhetris, Hill-Brahmin, Magar, Tamang, Tharu, Yadav, Muslim, Rai, Gurung, Limbu and Newar have some contiguity in their distribution. If Madheshi demands are to be fulfilled, the state will have to honor the identity aspirations of other ethnic groups as well.
Prior to constitution promulgation the debate was mainly focused on how Nepal should be federated. Post-Indian blockade, it has shifted to how New Delhi will shape Nepali politics through its coercive tactics. The question for Nepal is how to survive through this Indian highhandedness.
Fulfilling the demand of one ethnic group will open Pandora's Box. Redoing provincial boundaries without rigorous homework could cause more unrest. In principle, Madheshis leaders pledge to respect rights of every ethnic group. They need to prove it through their action. As for the state, it needs to redraw provincial boundaries by taking into account ethnic composition of each VDC in the country.
Arbitrary drawing of boundaries leads to never-ending ethnic conflicts, as is happening in Africa. In Africa watersheds are mostly spread east-west, but boundaries are drawn north-south, which is the major source of ongoing conflicts there. We must learn from Africa.
Drawing state boundaries east-west while our river systems are spread north-south will invite more trouble for the country. North-south division will guarantee use of natural resources that will benefit about 50 percent of country's population who lives in the Tarai plains as well as India across the border.
The author is Professor of Geography at University of Central Missouri, Warrensburg, US
bhattarai@ucmo.edu
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