With the change in political alliance at the center, there will be an inevitable avalanche in provincial governments

It will be stupidity to talk about communist unity sans Madhav Kumar Nepal. Seeking to have Nepal and Oli in one place will be like mixing oil with water. And Rabi Lamichhane is another character to manage. Realizing the possible hurdles Prachanda is proposing for dubai haat ma ladoo concept, ie, PM to hold both home and finance ministerial portfolios.

Ever since the Maoists joined mainstream politics, the revolutionary charm of Prachanda (the fierce one) has faded away to become Mr. Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Literally, Pushpa Kamal stands for Lotus Flower. In the process of transformation, he has also swapped his outfit - western style suit in a typical bhadgaunle topi - with daura suruwal that often symbolizes dominant Hindu male pahadi culture. Prachanda may have transformed to P. K. Dahal but P.K. Dahal has not given up Prachanda. That must be the reason why he still writes Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” as his full name and signs Prachanda with three dots underneath. Soon these three dots are going to imply three grave mistakes he committed in his political career. 

So far Prachanda has lamented, in public, for two big mistakes that he committed by joining mainstream politics. He is soon poised for the third one. The first one is his refusal to accept Mr. G. P. Koirala as the consensus President of FDR Nepal. As a consequence, the first CA failed to draft the constitution and the transition period needlessly extended. The second blunder was the reckless firing of COAS, Mr. Rukmangadh Katawal, who was in any way, poised to retire soon. This abruptly ended his flamboyant prime ministership. Since then, there is a constant shrinkage in popularity of his revolutionary party. The party is fragmented into more than half a dozen political groups and outfits. It has lost its charm. Public is increasingly questioning the relevance and justification for a decade-long armed rebellion. Even the court has annulled his decision to declare a public holiday on Falgun 1, marking the launch of the people’s war in 1996. 

Amid the dwindling popularity, however, Prachanda has not lost his taste for power. He is constantly switching sides, just to hang on to power.  He will soon realize this as his third big mistake. A party which has secured distant third position in the electoral race is ruling the roost. To his fans this may sound political acumen but there are moral imperatives in politics.

While switching political alliances, Prachanda has claimed: “Political upheaval will continue to exist till my last breath”. To an avid communist, order may come out of disorder but upheaval must not and should not be the cause of  last breath. Remember Oli making a remark on him: He is confused reading instability as dynamism?    

Definitely, in politics, one has to sleep with strange bedfellows. The only strange bedfellow Prachand has not slept with seems to be former King Gyanendra. Who knows even this could be on the deck? Only thing that is predictable in Nepali politics is its unpredictability.

There could be hundreds of reasons for Prachanda making a U-turn with Nepali Congress Party alliance. However, his abrupt allying with Mr. K. P. Sharma Oli has taken many by surprise. NC Leader, Mr. Sher Bahadur Deuba has termed it to be “totally unexpected” and “total betrayal”. There is a rumor going around in the power circle that Mr. Oli must have assured him of heading the government all the way throughout the remaining four-year tenure. However, it is doubtful, given Oli’s insatiable hunger for power. At a minimum, there must be a tacit understanding between the two to share the cake evenly.

Why is Prachanda gambling his stakes? Is this his end game? With the change in political alliance at the center, there will be an inevitable avalanche in provincial governments. One can fairly expect this to trigger bigger rounds of chaos and instability. 

To secure his majority he has to rope in Upendra Yadav. Because the total voting power of the three, namely, the CPN-UML, the Maoist Center and the RSP does not garner a majority. And to neutralize Yadav, he has to introduce CK Raut. Similarly, to neutralize RSP, he has to woo other smaller parties and individuals at the margin. Remember, in economics, the price is determined by the marginal values. It will be stupidity to talk about communist unity sans Madhav Kumar Nepal. Seeking to have Nepal and Oli in one place will be like mixing oil with water. And Rabi Lamichhane is another character to manage. Realizing the possible hurdles Prachanda is proposing for dubai haat ma ladoo concept, ie, PM to hold both home and finance ministerial portfolios. The Ministry of Home Affairs is all about power and the Ministry of Finance is all about wealth. Wealth attracts power and power attracts wealth in Nepal. Concentrate both in your hands, you become invincible superman.    

Within 30 days Prachanda has to secure a vote of confidence. This will be like chewing falamko cheura. Even if he passes this test, there are external hurdles to clear.

With the up-coming elections in India and the US, he may buy his time playing the China card. MCC is already in a state of wreck, with a new political alliance it is further pushed towards uncertainty. This will eclipse his agreement with India  “exporting 10,000 MW of electricity within 10 years”. With or without the BJP in India, Prachanda is in deep soup. This is for sure. There is an obnoxious Nepali saying which translated in English will read like this: “A cunning monkey often gets killed with the entrapment of his balls in odd places.” 

 
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