Managers of corporations write the good news about the company in a simple and clear language, but write the bad news in confusing and convoluted language. When students know their answers in the exam, they write shorter, clearer answers. When they don’t they write long and complicated answers. Credit card companies present the bad news in smaller fonts hidden in a corner, and the good news in bold letters at the center. [break]
It’s not just about what you say; it’s also about how you say.
As seasoned players of multi-party pseudo-democracy who had to compete for votes numerous times, NC and UML know this game very well. So when they try to confuse the voters on what their stance is on federalism, we should know that their decision is strategic. They are simply following the tried and tested political dictum: If you can’t convince them, confuse them.
The scheduled date for the Constituent Assembly election is less than four months away, but our grand old parties haven’t come up with map for the federal states. We see new vocabulary from time to time. Apparently the UML is for multi-ethnic states. At first glance it seems like this means many ethnic states. But turns out it’s just the opposite. It means states that have multiple ethnicities, somewhat like the zones of the Panchayat system. Recently, we read about NC coming up with seven state federal models, but we haven’t seen the map yet. It’s quite possible that the maps might come only after the election. Or even worse, a rough map after the election, but the precise map only after the constitution has been made. The NC and UML actually made such a case last time around!
The whole idea of having multiple states largely centered on ethnic identity makes people nervous—especially the Pahadi upper caste. That’s understandable. Nepal has been overtly centralized for over two centuries, ruled from Kathmandu by the upper caste of the Pahad. Federal states that are based on ethnicity will change the governance significantly.
At the local level, we will start to see the respective ethnic groups becoming powerful. They will have more control over their future. For example, in the Tharu province, it is likely that a Tharu will be the chief minister—at least for the first few terms. These leaders will have different view of how the government should run, and they will, by design, put the interest of Tahrus on top of their agenda. Naturally, the problems that are Tharu-centric will be solved fast.
The Madhesis and Janajatis want more control over their destiny. They want to put their agenda on the top. They know that best way to do so is to have federal states carved out in ways that make them the majority. At the country level, counted together, Madhesis and Janajatis are majority. What is more, their population is concentrated giving them even more clout. So mathematically, what they want is likely to prevail. In short, it’s possible to delay, but impossible to deny the federal states based largely on ethnic identity.
Although the leaders of NC and UML may be affected by their own intrinsic bias, at the end of the day politics is their career. They know what is good for them. They know very well that vote is worth the same, no matter who it comes from and would like to court the Madhesis and Janajatis. But what they actually have to say is not good news. So they have adopted the classic political strategy to confuse the target groups.
It is unclear, how this old political strategy will work. Madhesis and Janajatis are more aware politically then they used to be. The newspapers, TV channels and FM radios largely cater to the local interest and champion local causes. It is possible that because of this new media and free speech the confusion that NC and UML have tried to create around ethnic federalism will be exposed, and voters will be able to see through the fog they have craftily created.
Not everything looks rosy for the Madhesis and Janajatis. In politics, the memory is short. Madhesis will not have the advantage of the passions generated by the Madhesi revolution last time around. Also, Madhesis and Janjatis are at early stages of development as fully-fledged political parties. Their leaders are inferior to the NC and UML in terms of uniting for a common cause and have poor organizations skills. The optimal decision for them is to form an alliance with the Maoists, and come up with a clear agenda on the delineation of the states and the power of the states. The Maoist organization will help them win election. If forming an alliance is too much, they should at the least have a written agreement on the federal maps which is clear on its boundaries and constitutional powers. This will send a clear message to the electorate and make them a powerful force. Failing to do so might mean that the NC and UML’s confusion strategy will gain an upper hand.
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