1723 AD. In a buzzing fish market of Kirkcaldy, Scotland, a posthumous child was born and baptized as “Adam Smith”. In the same year, in a royal durbar on a hill of Gorkha, Nepal, the birth of a prince, Prithvi Narayan Shah, was being celebrated. This anecdote fascinates me more, when I remember two books published by each of them in 1776 AD - The Wealth of Nations and The Dibyopadesh (The Divine Counsel), respectively, and how these books curated the future of these two nations.
The Debt to GDP ratio has reached 41.5% and the debt figure amounted to NRs 2 trillion this year. So, the amortization schedule shows that we are required to pay almost 10 percent of our total revenue for debt repayment. If the creditors hesitate to fund sufficient loans, once we reach an unsustainable level of the debt to GDP ratio, only Lord Pashupatinath knows what’s going to run our state!
After the political transition from monarchy to republic during 2006/07, many of the top leaders were found to repeat ‘My regime of 10 years would turn out the country as prosperous as Singapore'. And with increased frequency, we kind of started to believe in the falsehood. But, to an economist, that was a clean lie, technically.
Debt trap has been a topic of concern in Nepal, as a significant portion (approximately one tenth) of the total revenue needs to be allocated annually for paying the interest and principal to the foreign lenders.
No miracle is going to happen in our historic trend of low capital expenditure this year, too. Same as ever, we will see a huge portion of the expenses being made in the last month of this fiscal year too (Asare Bikas accounting for almost 30% of capital expenditure).
Living a hypocritical way of life is oxymoronically comfortable, but the sad reality is that, doing so, we are marching toward a society characterized by ‘individual brilliance and collective failure’.
Rejecting both MCC and BRI would be economic nonsense because the country is in dire need of funds for its ambitions. Rejecting BRI and going on with MCC alone means that we remain sort of disconnected from the Chinese economy and increase reliance on the big bullying brother of the south. What if we reject MCC and align completely with the Xi path? That's also ridiculous, because China itself trades massively with the USA and gains a huge sum, though quarrels politically as hell. Accepting both the proposals seems an economic fun with a boom in infrastructure, but the political cost is huge.
Every person reading this piece knows why and where the majority of Nepali talents land after finishing school or completing undergraduation. They serve Amercians or Europeans or the rest of the globe, but not Nepal. It's because Nepali institutions don't care about the talents, unless you are ‘our man (hamro manche)’ rather than ‘the man (ramro manche)’.
Nepal’s landlockedness should be viewed from an agathokakological sense, not just as an ill-fate. Nepal can just give a damn over several ‘economic headaches’ as we are proudly landlocked. The terrorism risk index turns bleak for Nepal, as we are landlocked.