Many scientists consider climate change to be the biggest environmental challenge of this century. Although some controversy lingers about the extent of anthropogenic contribution to global warming, most experts agree that due to increased greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, earth’s average temperature is gradually rising and the ensuing climate change is causing significant negative impact on the environment and human population. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, 2007 states that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”.
Although Nepal is an insignificant emitter of global carbon, it is burdened by a disproportionately high degree of vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. Nepal’s exposures include the possibilities of increased GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods) phenomenon, the melting of snow-peaked mountains, decrease in agricultural production, increase in vector borne diseases, loss of important bio-diversity assets, and change in the hydrological cycles and the resulting precipitation effects. Given its limited financial resources and weak institutional capacity, the changing climate will likely reduce Nepal’s GDP, increase the society’s disease burden, and cause additional human deaths.
Most greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Nepal result from activities related to transportation, manufacturing and agriculture. In addition, the massive deforestation that the country witnessed from the 1960’s to the 1990’s released a large amount of carbon into the atmosphere. However, lately, Nepal has been able to reduce the rate of deforestation, and in fact, in some cases has actually increased the area of forest cover, thanks largely to the successful and innovative community forestry program, and aggressive efforts by the Nepal government to protect and conserve forested areas. According to a joint ADB and ICIMOD report, between 1996 and 2000, Nepal’s forest cover increased from 6.2 million hectares to 6.8 million hectares. This replenished forest area has provided additional carbon sink for sequestering a significant amount of carbon which otherwise would have been emitted to the atmosphere.
POTENTIAL IMPACT
The impacts of climate change on the environment, infrastructure, agriculture and society manifest gradually, similar to the long-term impacts of population growth on the environment. Further, the impacts of climate change on the environment can remain indiscernible for several years. They become cumulatively exacerbated over time. Because of this subtle and often unnoticed effect, arresting climate change is a challenge for cash strapped governments which have difficulties in justifying it as a priority. Consequently, the Nepal government is unable to formulate effective policies to control GHG emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change. The gradual and long-term adverse impacts fail to grab urgent attention when immediate problems including security, health, education, water supply, and localized pollution are highly visible and demand immediate action. This is ironic, as poor countries are more vulnerable and susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change compared to more developed economies.
Climate change will adversely affect several sectors in Nepal. Nepal’s farmers will feel the adverse impacts on the agriculture sector more immediately, such as decreased land productivity and crop yields. A potential change in the hydrological cycle, changes in the irrigation pattern and water supply and the changes in pollination and fertilization seasons, and natural biological cycle, can adversely affect routine agricultural practices that farmers have perfected over the centuries.
Another area where climate change is likely to negatively affect Nepal is public health through various processes. Other negative impacts include more frequent flooding, change in weather patterns, and increase in the intensity and frequency of landslides and storms.
STRATEGIES AND PUBLIC POLICIES
Nepal’s total annual carbon dioxide emission is estimated to be around 40 million metric tons (World Bank, 2006), which is about 0.1 percent of the global emissions. Given the globally insignificant GHG emission in Nepal, its emission reduction programs will remain as mainly ‘feel good’ policies. However, Nepal can effectively contribute towards sequestration of atmospheric carbon by drastically accelerating afforestation efforts, and by optimizing land use policies and improving agricultural practices. The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) - a UN supported program - being undertaken by the Ministry of Forest in Nepal in consort with multiple donors, is an encouraging example of reducing emissions. REDD programs work by providing incentives to local residents for the value they put in live forest that stores carbon, which would otherwise be released if the forest is cut, burnt or allowed to decay.
As a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol, Nepal can earn carbon credits through the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) window. It can sell them as Certified Emission Reductions (CER’s) to the rich countries which cannot meet their own carbon reduction levels. The resources generated through these programs could be effectively utilized for adaptation programs.
ADAPTATION POLICIES
Because the GHG’s linger on in the atmfor hundreds of years, the atmosphcarbon concentration will continue to increase even if the world immediately begins to drastically reduce its carbon emission. Consequently, an amplified climate change is inevitable, and adaptation measures become imperative to safeguard societies from the many negative effects. Many locations in Nepal are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. These areas include the high altitude settlements, downstream agricultural lands, villages immediately below glacial lakes and settlements near lakes and rivers. To safeguard against drastic climate impacts, government and other institutions must establish adaptation measures and develop a hierarchy of adaptation approaches.
The so called ‘no regrets policies’ can be incorporated into the menu of adaptive measures the governments can formulate. Such policies can include adopting cleaner technologies and investing in research and technology innovation. If these policies are implemented, the net investment cost on climate related technologies can become zero if the medical, social, and environmental benefits of the changes are accounted for. Similarly, the ‘precautionary principle’ also recommends the adoption of certain policies even if the actual climatic impacts remain uncertain. As Nepal has poor and scant data related to climate change, policies based on precautionary principles are particularly well suited.
Nepal’s fragile eco-system can suffer significant damage due to the added impacts of climate change in addition to the existing environmental stressors. Climate change can negatively affect the economic system due to loss in agricultural productivity, damage to physical infrastructure and cost of relocation for people. Governmental policies must include building public health capacities in a decentralized manner, creating a public awareness system to educate people of the possible epidemics, and establishing research and other activities to address such public health problems. Nepal can also consider several policy options to mitigate climatic impacts on agriculture.
Nepal should, further, build on the age-old farming practices that the indigenous farmers have perfected over time. Indigenous practices provide resilience and fall-back mechanisms to cope with the changing weather cycle. Research on indigenous farming system and integrating them to the modern agricultural practices will be useful for developing appropriate adaptation mechanism for Nepali agriculture. A hybrid system that selects the best and most suitable aspects of modern mechanized farming and the indigenous technology of farming may work best in Nepal.
It is also imperative for Nepal to invest resources in education and information dissemination related to greenhouse gases, climate change and related mitigation and adaptation techniques and programs. As a highly vulnerable, largely mountainous, and primarily agrarian society, Nepal must be proactive in enhancing its institutional and social capacity to deal with the gradual threat emanating from climate change.
The author is an urban and regional planner and a faculty associate at Arizona State University, USA
ambika@alum.mit.edu
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