In hopes of a better future

The year 2009 commenced with the anticipation that the Peace Process would create an environment for more job opportunities, which would slow down the migration process. People were waiting for their peace dividends after the decade-long conflict. But it did not happen, as expected. Analyzing the overall scenario, and despite the plans of the Ministry of Finance to introduce employment programs in the near future, there is no light at the end of the tunnel anytime soon. The basis for job opportunities, therefore, is weak.[break]

In Nepal, every year, 350,000 people enter the job market, of which only 50,000 to 100,000 get employed. Due to various reasons, such as the internal conflict and unfavorable conditions, we are not being able to manage the remaining unemployed ones. Thus, they opt for foreign employment. But not all of them are able to do so. There are three determining factors which affect the migration rate—access to information, network with people, and the capacity to invest in the preparation to get employment.

As in the past couple of years, this year also will see about 750 people leaving the country each day for foreign employment in the Gulf, Malaysia and elsewhere. The number has remained constant for the past few years. From these migrant workers, the country has been receiving about 520 million rupees as remittance per day, which has been the lifeline of Nepal’s economy for quite sometime.

Although it was predicted that the recession would cut down the foreign job rate for Nepalis abroad, it did not. Surprisingly, compared to 2008, there was a rise in the remittance in 2009 because the US dollar rate increased. The other reason was the opening of legal money transfers through which people preferred sending their money back home instead of the informal channels. Additionally, quite a few people who returned due to the global crisis brought their savings and the last paycheck along with them. But overall, the financial crisis didn’t affect Nepal and Nepali migrant workers that much.

The above-mentioned cases do not apply for the elites of Kathmandu. They have been openly passing comments on how investment in Nepal is not safe. So they keep their earnings with them and rather prefer investing in assets like land or apartments, or educating their children abroad. There is no other sector in this country which produces 520 million rupees a day, except for its migrant jobbers.

But this doesn’t mean there are no hurdles. In 2009, the Israeli government banned women migrant labors. And the Nepal government banned women jobseekers for countries like Lebanon, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, in terms of remittance, 2009 was an interesting year, but a bad one for Nepali women migrant workers. In 2010, there is no certainty that this ban will be lifted.

What, then, is 2010 going to be like? There are challenges ahead because of several reasons. The ongoing Dubai crisis will create situations where Nepali migrant workers over there will not be able to find jobs, which will force them to return to Nepal. There are indications that the demand of Nepali labors from countries like Qatar will also reduce due to the postponement of mega construction works, such as airport construction.

The possibilities of banning other countries for women labors by the Nepal government are also there, which obviously will affect the remittance to the country. And remittance is one of the major contributors to the boom of real estate. The situation will be made worse if Nepal government will not be able to find out new destinations for foreign employment.

But there are other interesting pointers as well for migration in 2010. Nepalis will start going to Japan for work, under strict regulations, and the number of people who will go to Korea will also rise. In terms of numbers, the migration will be tiny but the remittance will be huge. And this is what we want, a few people going abroad but sending quality amount of money. This can again boost up the remittance sector.

Nepal’s civil society is pressurizing the government to open up the European market. If it materializes, there is a huge market there for manpower and labors. While 2010 seems to be a challenging year, how it is managed depends upon how the government will make its policies, and whether it will be able to implement them.

Dr Ganesh Gurung, a sociologist, is the founding member and chairperson of Nepal Institute of Development Studies. He is also the chairperson of Nepal National Network on Migration and has been involved in the migration issues since 1990.

(As told to Sumina Karki)