Morcha's agitation is driven by a fear of radical outfits pushing them into irrelevance and common resentment against KP Oli
Related story
Two women arrested in Kathmandu for honey trap scheme
There is an interesting parallel between Indian blockade and Madheshi Morcha's strategy of violence and coercion. Like most things in realpolitik, both are undeclared. India refutes every evidence of blockade, and pushes for dialogue as a key to peaceful resolution of crisis (India's recent welcome of the three-point proposal and its veiled promise to resume supplies is yet to bear fruit).
Like Morcha, India denies blockade. When it somehow acknowledges (Sushma Swaraj's assertion in Rajya Sabha earlier this month that India had blockaded Nepal in 1989 as well is not just a Freudian slip), it also assures to ease supplies and take Nepal-India relations back to normalcy. But nothing happens. This gap between what India and Morcha preach and practice has put both of them in troubles. The whole saga indicates how counterproductive it is to take hard positions over small displeasure and stick to those positions for long.On hindsight, Indian authorities seem to have been provoked by certain element to impose cruel blockade in Nepal. A week before constitution was promulgated, The Hindustan Times ran one rather exaggerated report on constitution's discrimination of Madheshi people and how conflict in Madhesh will pose serious security threat to India. The report recommended strong Indian intervention in Nepal. It was rejoined by an equally strong editorial. "India cannot afford another secessionist movement in its neighborhood," it said, "the [Indian] government" should send "a special envoy if necessary, to persuade Nepali parties to see sense." The government of India heeded this advice and sent S Jaishankar to Kathmandu. When parties refused to heed Jayshankar and proceeded with constitution-making, the blockade followed.
It should be noted that except for this newspaper, most other dailies published from India had appreciated Nepal's constitution process and criticized Indian intervention in Nepal. Hopefully, those who instigated India to take such an extreme position on Nepal and for what interests will be revealed some day. But that is beside the point here.
Like India refutes blockade, Morcha refutes any claim to violent agitation. But since constitution promulgation, this is its undeclared strategy: First provoke people, ask protestors to come out with spears and knives so as to invite police intervention. When they do intervene, protestors start pelting stones at police, vandalize public offices and even attempt to burn men alive. The police open fire. Protestors get killed and this becomes an excuse for Morcha not to engage in talks. It is meaningless to sit for talks with the oppressive government, comes the announcement. Positions harden.
Somehow a semblance of conducive atmosphere is created. Then Prime Minister K P Oli throws insulting remarks. Or President makes a visit to Janakpur. Morcha cadres try to misbehave with her, police intervene and another protestor is killed. Morcha gets yet another excuse to stall talks.
Morcha contradicts itself. On the one hand, it declares not to allow government ministers and MPs who supported constitution to enter Madhesh. It also demands holding talks in Madhesh itself.
Indian Ministry of External Affairs' welcome statement shows India is trying to correct its mistake in Nepal. It is Morcha's turn to follow by giving up hard stand on province demarcation.
Understandably, Morcha has gone too far already. About 40 Madheshis (most of them poor) have already been killed for 'Madhesh only provinces.' Morcha has a compulsion to show it is not backtracking from this stand, for they have made most of it during the agitation.
Let this movement be successful. Then there will be separate Madhesh provinces. You will be your own bosses. All discriminations will vanish, so will underdevelopment and unemployment, they have been told umpteen times. When you sell big dreams it is hard to settle for the practical.
Morcha's agitation was driven primarily by two domestic factors—fear of radical outfits pushing them to irrelevance and their deep resentment and hate against CPN-UML chief KP Oli. Madheshi leaders had bitter verbal exchange with Oli in January last year. Their distance with UML widened precisely from this point. During the interview with this scribe Madheshi leaders used to confide that if they cannot establish only Madhesh-provinces, Madhesh will go into the hands of CK Raut. One needs to put Morcha's refrain 'agitation is not our wish but compulsion' also into this context.
Madheshi Morcha is in a fix now. It cannot continue with blockade on humanitarian grounds. India does not seem to be in a mood to support this inhuman tactic, putting its international image on the line. It cannot draw back because it has the burden of proving it was in control of the blockade, not India.
As a result, blockade (at least at Birgunj if not at all border points) is likely to continue at least until Morcha gets something to show as outcome of four-month-long agitation or until Morcha extricates itself from the trap it has placed itself in. So what will be Morcha's face saver? It has limited options.
First, it should push for passing of the amendment bills. If electoral constituencies are delineated on population basis, Madhesh will get 51 percent representation. If proportional inclusion is ensured in all state bodies, this will benefit Madheshis as well. However, Morcha's demand for all plain provinces is problematic. Kailali, Kanchanpur, Jhapa, Morang and Sunsari cannot be accommodated in plain provinces without consent of those living in these districts. Chure districts cannot be joined with Madhesh provinces without taking residents of these places into confidence.
Change in province demarcation as sought by Morcha will be even more complicated now because Morcha/India blockade has made hill population suspicious of Madheshi leaders' intent. It will take years for hill population to repose their trust on Morcha leaders. Province demarcation cannot be resolved at this moment even if we have Mahantha Thakur, Upendra Yadav and Laxman Lal Karna in place of KP Oli, Sushil Koirala and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Apparently, both sides know this. They do not admit it in public fearing that all hell will break loose.
Having ensured passage of the amendment bills, Morcha can divert public attention to demand for resignation of Prime Minister KP Oli. Predictably, Morcha leader like Upendra Yadav has started asking for it. Its camaraderie with Nepali Congress is building. After all, Madheshi leaders seem to have issue more with Oli's on-and-off uncouth remarks, than with common stand of NC and UML over province demarcation.
Most likely, India will also be happy to get rid of the PM who stood boldly against blockade though he completely failed to provide alternatives in the past three months. On Oli's part, he will have plenty of excuse to say how hard he tried to save the country from disintegration and how he braved economic blockade. After all, UML has secured its stake in Office of President. Oli's resignation is desirable not because his successor will be able to resolve federal contention but because it will give an excuse to Morcha not to prolong the agitation; people will be relieved. What the country needs now is something to hold on to get out of the trap.
Needless to say, Morcha's agitation and Indian blockade have polarized Nepali society. Polarization is wide and deep between Madheshi and Pahade leaderships. Madheshi people's perception towards hill leaders has changed. So has hill people's perception towards Madheshi leaders. This divide is too weak to rip our social fabric.
As for the rift between Madheshi and Pahade people, it will soon be bridged. Let the agitation calm down, they will have to battle with same unaccountable leaders (Pahade and Madheshi) and same bunch of self-serving government ministers. Poverty and unemployment will unite them. If not today, they will be joining hands and working together in Arab or the Middle East, if not here; tomorrow, if not today. Common destiny will hold them together.
@mahabirpaudyal
