A team of researchers is embarking on a challenging expedition to Mount Everest to study why the ice on Khumbu Glacier is nearing its melting point. The team, led by Professor Duncan Quincey of the University of Leeds, seeks to measure ice temperatures and investigate how solar radiation affects snowmelt despite freezing air temperatures. Their findings could have global implications for glacial melt and water supplies across the Himalayas. Nepal Republic Media’s Special Assignment Editor Shree Ram Subedi spoke with Professor Duncan in Kathmandu before he and the team embarked on a month-long scientific expedition to Everest on the second week of April.
Living thousands of miles away in the UK and working as a glaciologist at the University of Leeds, what draws you to the Nepalese mountains and Mount Everest?
I have been coming to Nepal since 2004. That was when I was doing my PhD, and I was interested in how mountain glaciers are changing with climate change.
Since then, as I’ve become an independent academic, I’ve been returning to the mountains to survey, make measurements, and record how fast the glaciers are changing in the face of the current climate crisis. I came to Nepal because I think it's so rich in culture, and the people are directly connected with the environments in which we now work.
The changes we see in these mountain regions go beyond historical precedents and have a real impact on the people living in the mountains and downstream. For me, that’s a truly valuable part of science—being able to link environmental changes with their impact on people.
Nowhere is that more stark or obvious than in the Himalayan region, especially in Nepal, where we see villages stretching through the mountain range right up to the edges of the glaciers. That connection between people and environment is very special, and it keeps bringing me back to Nepal time and again. Over the years, we've been able to quantify these changes, and Nepal holds a special place in my heart.
As we speak, the overall health of Mount Everest doesn’t seem to be in good shape. What does science say about this? Should we be genuinely concerned about Everest’s condition? From a scientific perspective, is this a crisis?
It’s clear—it is a crisis. The health of the mountain is not good. The health of the range is deteriorating over time. As you said, we’re in the middle of a crisis, and we can see it in the measurements we take each year on these glaciers.
We make measurements using satellite images, which show that the glaciers descending from Mount Everest and the broader region are reducing in surface elevation year after year—by several meters or more in places. The rate at which ice is being lost is accelerating.
On the glacier surfaces, there’s much more meltwater than before. What used to be largely ice is now a mix of ponds and, in some places, small lakes. While some areas of ice remain exposed, we now see many more surface water bodies. We also observe the formation of ponds and lakes and increasingly unstable mountain slopes. In the past, these environments were frozen year-round. Now, as they warm, the ice that once held the slopes together is melting, leading to instability.
So we can expect more landslides, more avalanches. This applies not only to rock slopes but also to the ice passing through these regions. It's becoming warmer, more unstable. To summarize: we’re in the middle of a crisis. The health of the mountains is deteriorating, and this is the time to take action.
This leads us to the purpose of your current expedition. Could you outline its main objectives and what outcomes you anticipate upon its completion?
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Previously, we worked on Khumbu Glacier to measure ice temperatures. We expected the ice to be very cold, given that it descends from the highest place on Earth. But when we drilled into the ice around Everest Base Camp—down to depths of about 190 meters—the coldest ice we found was only -3.3°C. That was surprisingly warm, considering the environment.
It was a wake-up call. We realized the ice is out of equilibrium with the climate—much warmer than expected. So this trip is focused on discovering the reasons for that.
We suspect that at higher elevations, above Everest Base Camp and into the Western Cwm, solar radiation is so strong that even when the air temperature is -5, -10, or -15°C, meltwater still forms on the ice surface. That meltwater, being relatively warm, seeps into the snow and ice, refreezes, and releases heat. We believe this heat is warming the ice at the point of formation before it flows down to lower elevations.
This is the hypothesis we’re testing on this trip. Ultimately, our goal is to better understand this process so we can improve models predicting how glaciers will evolve. If we understand the importance of this mechanism, we can make better predictions for 2050, 2075, 2100—how long the ice will last.
In total, We are a team of seven researchers, representing universities from the UK (Leeds, Aberystwyth, Kings College London, Lancaster) and Norway (Bergen). Four of the team will be working in the Western Cwm, while the other three will be working around base camp and on the lower part of the glacier.
The Western Cwm team will be aiming to drill to a depth of around 15 metres, and putting a 360 degree video camera down the borehole to be able to visualise the snow and ice structure. This will show us how often meltwater has percolated into the snow and ice and refrozen (since the refrozen water appears as distinct ice layers in the video image).
Then we will install temperature sensors in the hole, and leave those running for the next 12 months. We hope to have these data transmitted via satellite on a daily basis, but otherwise we will return next spring to collect the data loggers. The temperature data will record how warm the surface snow and ice layers are, and how frequently meltwater percolates into the ice and refreezes. Along with a weather station, which is on the surface, we will then be able to establish the relationship between melt events and the strength of the solar radiation. We will then also be able to quantify how much the melt and refreeze events warm the snow and ice, and test whether this process can account for the surprisingly warm temperatures we measured previously lower down on the glacier.
You also mentioned direct evaporation caused by sunlight. Can you explain your reasoning behind that?
Yes, sublimation is also part of the process. We're not focusing on it as a key element of this particular project, but we acknowledge it's a factor. Our main focus is the infiltration of meltwater into snow and ice—this is the process we believe has the most significant impact on glacier survival. We’ll also collect data on sublimation and evaporation to understand their role in warming the ice masses in the Everest region.
Nepal is organizing the Sagarmatha Sambad, or Everest Dialogue, from May 16 to 18 to address climate change, focusing on mountains and glaciers. How can Nepal best leverage this platform to advocate for global action?
Nepal needs to place Mount Everest on the global stage, and this dialogue is a perfect opportunity to do that. Organizing a workshop or conference with government ministers and global leaders is essential. It's the only way Nepal can influence those who make decisions that can change our trajectory.
Right now, we’re on a path where, within a generation, some areas will become nearly uninhabitable. Nepal must use this platform to present data, quantify changes, and influence global decision-makers. Everest is one of the world’s most iconic environments, and it deserves global attention.
Mount Everest is a global heritage and shared natural treasure. How can the international community come together to protect and preserve it?
The world must act collectively. The big nations—the G20 countries—must move away from fossil fuels as their primary energy source and transition to renewable energy. We should have done this already. It's the only way to tackle the climate crisis.
In addition, there needs to be compensation for countries like Nepal that are suffering from emissions they didn’t cause. Mountain communities produce little pollution yet face the greatest impacts. That’s a deep injustice. The G20 must act now. Even if we reduce emissions today, the Himalayas are already set to lose 20–30% of their ice mass by century’s end. So immediate action is urgent.
What short-term and long-term actions are needed to safeguard Everest and its ecosystem?
In the short term, we need to help communities adapt. People are experiencing more variability in the seasons and less predictability. In the past, mountain communities could rely on seasonal rainfall. Now, precipitation is erratic. We need funding to help them adjust.
In the long term, we must address the root cause: reducing global carbon emissions. This responsibility lies mostly with the world’s major economies. Nepal also has a role—keeping its development as clean as possible. Issues like black carbon are also worsening glacial depletion.
Given Everest lies between two of the world’s largest carbon emitters—India and China—how can Nepal influence them?
Nepal must continue advocating on a global scale. Initiatives like the Everest Dialogue are a great start. While it’s hard for a small country to influence India or China directly, Nepal can take care of its own environment—reduce emissions in cities like Kathmandu and promote sustainable tourism.
Working with local communities to reduce environmental impact, especially from mass tourism, is essential to preserving these fragile environments.
As a small country disproportionately affected by climate change, how can Nepal use climate diplomacy to rally global support?
This is ultimately a political issue. Nepal’s politicians must engage their counterparts in larger nations. Bring them to the mountains—show them the changes happening year after year. The evidence is clear.
If Nepal can influence decision-makers in China, India, and other major emitters, it can help drive long-term change. The next generation already understands this challenge and is starting to act. But real change depends on political leadership.
Climate action requires climate finance, yet countries like Nepal aren’t receiving enough. What’s the way forward?
There’s some progress in climate justice. Legal actions are being taken against major emitters and industries. Another way forward is compensation—those who caused the problem should pay to fix it.
We need a climate fund, supported by G7 and G20 countries, so vulnerable nations like Nepal can make the necessary adjustments. The damage was caused elsewhere—those responsible should help finance solutions.
Before we wrap up, is there anything you’d like to say to the people of Nepal and to the world about why saving Everest—and fighting climate change—matters now more than ever?
I’d just like to end on a positive note. Nepal still has the most beautiful mountain range in the world. It provides for its people—who are warm and welcoming. The tourism industry is vital, and though it has some environmental impact, I still encourage people to visit and enjoy these incredible environments—while they’re still here.
Because in a couple of generations, these mountain regions will look very different.
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