The new prime minister has done well to define his priorities i.e. (i) complete the peace process, (ii) draft a ‘forward-looking’ constitution (iii) give good governance and (iv) initiate socio- economic transformation. While initiating moves in relation to the second and third priorities, the immediate emphasis will have to be placed on the first. The peace process has to be taken up immediately as the time of 45 days’ deadline has already started ticking with the formation of the government under Maoists’ leadership. The concrete and sincere implementation of this promise will indeed facilitate smoother and faster pace of constitution drafting as well.
There exists sharp differences on various aspects of the proposed Maoist plan on the integration of their PLA cadres, such as the actual form and number of cadres to be integrated, amount of compensation to be paid to those relieved from the cantonments, the ranks of the commanders to be integrated, and the grant of amnesty to those having cases pending in the courts for their acts of omissions and commissions during the insurgency. On all these issues, the sections of the Maoists leadership have strong views and stakes that are at variance with what other political parties are asking for. The issues involved can be dragged into endless negotiations only at the cost of delaying the resolution.
The possibility of stakeholders within the Maoist party taking rigid positions cannot be ruled out. There is no dearth of Dr Bhattarai’s detractors amongst the Maoists who may want him to fail for reasons of ideological mismatch and leadership struggle. Dr Bhattarai has to carry the conviction with his party colleagues that even some adjustments and compromises on critical issues will help bridge the confidence gap between the Maoists and a wide spectrum of the Nepali political forces as well as that of the international community. This will go a long way in helping the Maoists reinforce their credibility as a force in Nepali politics in the long run.
Once the direction and purpose of resolving the peace process is established, there would hopefully be greater cooperation forthcoming from the opposition, especially the Nepali Congress (NC) in expediting constitution writing. There are still unresolved complex aspects of constitution where strong disagreements exist among all the major political formations in Nepal. Among them, the form of government and the nature of federalism are most sensitive and contentious. The marginalized Madhesi and Janjati groups continue to be suspicious of high caste-dominated major political parties on the question of federalism.
Dr Bhattarai enjoys support and goodwill of wider political circles in Nepal beyond his party. However, the extent to which he succeeds or fails in pursuing his priorities will depend to a large extent on the support that he receives from his own party.
The Limbus registered their angst through a massive strike in the eastern districts in this respect on the day Dr Bhattarai was sworn in as prime minister. It is possible that not all the contentious issues of constitution drafting may be resolved within the coming three months of the CA, but an attempt should be made to evolve consensus on the basic principles of federalism and inclusive democracy. If that can be done, some mechanism can be devised to fine tune specific provisions later even through referendum, if need be.
For this, the best approach would be to broaden this coalition government into a government of national consensus. Dr Bhattarai did well in taking a bold initiative of approaching the NC for joining the government immediately after his assumption of office. It may be hoped that as the new government delivers on the peace process, the NC will be induced to rethink its overall strategy toward the Maoists. The NC needs to recall that the foundations of the Janaandolan II were laid by its understanding and alliance with the Maoists. It is only this alliance that can bring the national transition to its logical conclusion. By keeping out of the national consensus, the NC is betraying its trust with the people of Nepal who came on its call to the streets in April 2006 to face bullets and batons.
The question of good governance is as urgent as that of the peace process. Law and order has almost been crippled in the country, especially in the Tarai region. There are nearly a 1,000 cases of disappearances pending resolution. There is a genuine concern that the proposed amnesty in the four-point agreement between the Maoists and the Madhesi groups will end up in denying justice to the victims of past nearly 15 years of turmoil and instability in country. Dr Bhattarai will have to evolve a humane approach on this question and even while implementing the general amnesty, his government must compensate both materially and emotionally, those victims and their families who bore the major brunt of insurgency and turmoil.
While the socio-economic transformation is a long-term agenda, Nepali economy needs immediate support to reactivate itself. The confidence between business establishments and the working class stand at its lowest level. Will the new government find appropriate means to bring the two components together to help productive wheels to run to their optimum capacities? Both for managing the economy and the law and order situation, the new prime minister needs a team of efficient, honest and dedicated colleagues. Unfortunately, he is not a free agent in choosing his team and has to go by the consensus within his party as also among the allies. What he can do however is to create overarching instrumentalities of monitoring some of the critical areas of governance and public services. The feedback he may thus receive through such mechanisms may help him to initiate corrective actions in the areas where performance falls short of minimum expectations.
Dr Bhattarai enjoys support and goodwill of wider political circles in Nepal beyond his party.
However, the extent to which he succeeds or fails in pursuing his priorities will depend to a large extent on the support that he receives from his own party. The Maoists have adopted his line of ‘peace and constitution’ after much internal debate and discussion and it is hoped that their full support to the new government will be forthcoming. There have however been instances when efforts were made to isolate him within the party by dubbing him as a ‘revisionist’ and ‘pro-India’ comrade. If there are still sections among the Maoists who have reservations on his integrity and capability to provide constructive leadership, they must realize that at every moment of ideological churning, it is his line that has prevailed.
With regard to India, pathological preoccupation with anti-India nationalism has proved counter-productive for its protagonists in Nepal’s long history. It is no doubt true that occasional policy and diplomatic distortions in India’s approach toward Nepal hurt Nepal’s interests and sensitivities. But fundamentally, stability and progress in Nepal is in no other country’s interest as much as that of India’s. Neither India nor Nepal can afford to have any lasting conflict of interest with each other.
The new government in Nepal also provides a window of opportunity for India to restore its temporarily derailed Nepal policy. The aspirations of the Nepali people that were unleashed by the Janaandolan II were fully supported by India. These aspirations cannot be fulfilled without stability and order in Nepal. Such stability and order can only be ensured under the leadership of elected representative forces. India has such close bonds of history, culture, economy and society, including family ties, with Nepal, which no rival can ever match and malign.
The writer is a Visiting Research Professor at Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore and a close Nepal watcher
sdmuni@gmail.com
Related story
TU opens chance exam forms for students with backlog since 2058...
