Protests in Province 2 are petering out. The Madheshi Morcha is having a hard time putting on a show of unity. Rajendra Mahato, Morcha's Achilles' heel from the start, is making life particularly achy now for the remaining constituents in the quadrumvirate of election losers.
For fear of appearing weak-kneed which would reflect in the next elections, Mahato's rivals have for the moment U-turned from what appeared to be an impending decision to relocate the marathon sit-in from the no-man's land between Birgunj and Raxaul, to Kathmandu.The bad news for Morcha, though, is that it no longer has the political capital to prolong the sit-in. Five months, it appears, is long enough for even the thoroughly brain-washed to understand that the methods employed by the Morcha were ridiculously disproportionate to the grievances. The protesters now have few sympathizers on our side of the border and across, which isn't surprising at all.
What is surprising, though, is why it took residents of Raxaul so long to understand just how important a market Nepal is and just how irrelevant the size of a certain province right across the border is for them. From running free food kitchen for Morcha-wallahs and even taking part in protests seemingly for the heck of it, they have now done a volte-face. On Wednesday, they went to the extent of giving Morcha-wallahs the taste of their own medicine in the form of petrol bombs.
It is getting increasingly clear that the demands the parliament will soon meet through two constitutional amendments weren't the brownie points Morcha was eyeing to score, which is why it has shown reluctance to registering amendments. The 'rights struggle' had more sinister underpinnings, and was actually aimed at taking away the rights of Tharus, Muslims and some other clusters deservedly recognized by the new constitution as groups eligible for protection. These clusters were dumped by the Interim Constitution in the Madhesi basket.
The demarcation demand, on the other hand, was tailor-made either by or for hawks in New Delhi desperate to regulate freshwater meandering down the Himalayas.
One could argue that the demand was Morcha's bait to lure New Delhi into Nepal's internal affairs. However, given New Delhi's penchant for intrigues and, whenever opportunity avails, blatant interference in the neighborhood, it was perhaps the other way round.
Whichever the case, the demand is against the interests of the Morcha because absorbing Jhapa, Morang and Sunsari districts will significantly reduce Madheshi dominance in Province 2. Even more intriguing is Morcha's insistence on a Tharu province, from which Morcha has nothing to gain. Morcha's strange bedfellows until October, the Tharus, aren't even protesting anymore, and their most recognizable politician is snug in the deputy prime minister's chair.
The idea of 'One Madhesh One Pradhesh' was the biggest political export to Nepal of the year 2007. In the face of resistance from Tharus, the export was revised in favor of two provinces from Jhapa to Kanchanpur. The logic, workable or flawed, was that it wouldn't be difficult to win loyalty of a province carved out for a community that has entrenched historical grievances against Kathmandu. Given Nepal's increasing ethnic polarization and radical forces' demonstrated tendency of destroying the present and the future as a way of avenging for the past, it could actually work.
Oli's litmus test
More because of lack of them than because of smart countermoves, the rainbow coalition in Kathmandu has so far withstood arguably the biggest threat Nepal's territorial integrity has faced since 1815.
We are halfway into the fourth month of Indian blockade, and yet have managed to get statements critical of Indian intervention only from China and the United Nations.
KP Oli or Kamal Thapa fans would argue that playing China card was a smart move. The reality is turning to China was more a survival response.
Domestically, the KP Oli government seems to have employed the Do Nothing strategy after initial moves to deal with Morcha's protests as law-and-order problem backfired. The strategy's expected outcome: exhaust the protesters while more and more people scrutinize the constitution and hopefully realize how disproportionate the agitation is.
It has to be admitted here that the rainbow coalition found two unexpected allies, the first being patriots. Though despised by many as chauvinistic, patriotism is actually a natural response to an external threat and isn't necessarily chauvinistic.
The second ally, strangely, has been black marketeering done for quick profit by shady people who would want the blockade to last forever. The emergence of an enormous black market eased scarcity, puzzling even New Delhi where Morcha leaders were quizzed last month on why the blockade hadn't brought Kathmandu to its knees. Instead of stating the obvious—that it's silly to even think that 1,800 kilometers of open border can be sealed off—a Morcha leader reportedly put the blame on China.
In all likelihood, Oli will visit India before China. This isn't necessarily problematic if Oli doesn't lose sight of the geopolitical shift Nepal is poised to make, and must. It is during his visit to China, though, that his report card as prime minister will be drafted in Kathmandu. For Nepal's future as a sovereign nation, Oli must secure trade and transit and long-term fuel import deals with China. If he doesn't, he will lose support of patriots who are silently backing him, despite his insufferably artless public utterances.
Delhi's burnt fingers
The socio-economic costs Nepal paid during the Indian blockade will be felt, talked about, and fretted over for decades. Those on the other side of the border will focus more on the geopolitical costs for sure.
Subtle, difficult to quantify, will be the takeaways for Nepal from these harrowing months of deprivation, uncertainty and discord. The most obvious is this: we must decrease trade dependence on India by opening up more trade routes with China.
New Delhi is gradually backing off having badly burnt its fingers in a politically and economically fragile neighborhood it had hoped to bring to its knees within days or at most weeks of the blockade.
Those in the Morcha quadrumvirate know this better than anyone. New Delhi's statement of December 21 welcoming a Cabinet decision to postpone decision on the very demand that Morcha had shouldered at their behest, must have been a blinding epiphany for the Morcha, much like the one that must have blinded New Delhi when our Maoists changed colors after sweeping the 2008 elections.
Only time will tell what new political forces Indian intelligence and security agencies prop up in Nepal in the future to while away their time with the intrigues they seem so fond of.
To prevent brazen interference and blockades by India in future, Nepal not only needs to look north, but also attract investors from powerful nations. If Chinese, American, Japanese, and British firms had stakes worth billions of dollars in Nepal, our southern neighbor that seems to suffer from periodic urges to destabilize Nepal wouldn't have given in to that urge.
As this episode draws to a close, those in Nepal who suffer from the seemingly incurable malady of progressive romanticism that apparently results in an insatiable appetite for never-ending 'rights struggles' will soon have to find another pastime.
@writerbikash
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