Differences between political parties on new constitution had narrowed down significantly when negotiations in the Constituent Assembly (CA) broke down in early January. Seen separately from power sharing issues, the solution floated by the president of Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Democratic (MJD-D) Bijaya Gachchhadar, a stalwart of the opposition alliance, had brought political parties closer and had provided a viable way out.
The positive situation, however, was undermined by leaders within the opposition. They put pressure on UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who is also head of the opposition coalition, not to close the deal. Baburam Bhattarai, apparently, like some Madheshi leaders, was not in favor of the agreement. His polemics during the deadlock that followed vindicated this.
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In the last forty days, Nepal has had the most polarized political environment. Vandalism in the CA took place under the aegis of the Maoist party; CA formed Questionnaire Proposal Committee, by withstanding the pressure of the opposition; and with four weeks of preparation, the 30-party opposition alliance organized its ‘show of strength’ on February 28.
Bhattarai’s visit to India took place against this backdrop. In a normal situation, Bhattarai, whose Maoist party once dreamt of realizing the South Asian Maoist revolution together with the Indian Maoists, would hardly want the current Indian establishment to succeed. Until May 2014, Modi for the Nepali far left was a right winger who could plot the revival of Hindu Monarchy in Nepal. From last May to now, he was for them a corporate darling doing nothing for the aamaadmi.
Bhattarai’s engagement with the government of center-right Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stemmed from the necessity of securing the continuity of Maoist politics in Nepal’s most uncertain political climate.
Bhattarai’s interlocutors and advisors in India, therefore, suggested that he employ his potent academic credentials, blended with appeasing Indian leadership. He did this successfully, probably to the surprise of the likes of Prakash Karat or KC Tyagi or Sharad Yadav, or even bureaucrats and academics like Shyam Sharan and SD Muni, who had together helped construct the image of Nepal’s Maoists as ‘agent of change’ even as the Indian Maoists remained enemy no 1.
Bhattarai was able to put Nepal back in Delhi’s regional political agenda.
The objective behind this was seeking India’s help not only to stretch the constitution process until the last of the next three years of the current CA, but also to use this period of anarchy to reenergize the weakening Maoist party. This would be the perfect Red Book approach to expand the party for the Maoist ideologue, who is likely to head the party soon.
If there’s one thing Bhattarai’s opponents must be wary of, it would be his ability to craft a powerful discourse by using media and intelligentsia in favor of his political agenda.
See his modus operandi in domestic politics over the past few months. Despite the fact that republic, federalism, inclusiveness and secularism have been established as irreversible principles as a result of 2006 Spring Revolution, 2007 Madhesh movement and subsequent Janajati movements, Bhattarai has been constantly reiterating that NC-UML coalition is bringing back 1990 constitution. And to everyone’s disbelief, he seems to have convinced his followers and friends not only in Nepal but also in India and abroad. Yes, there was one informal understanding among all major parties, Maoists included, in the run up to the January 22 missed-deadline of the new constitution, an understanding that they would write in the new constitution ‘religious freedom’ instead of secularism.
This had come out of the realization that the sentiment of majority Hindus was hurt since secularism was used in transitional period as a means of Hindu-whipping. But going back to 1990 constitution is not only unrealistic; saying so would also be an out-and-out lie.
Like in domestic politics, Bhattarai in India skillfully used the space of civil society and media to sway the opinion of the government in New Delhi. Although leading a strong government, BJP in the last nine months has developed a soft spot: uncontrolled statements of Hindutva forces for which media has been pounding the party and Modi government, attributing the party’s recent Delhi defeat to this assertive “right wing”. The same media, following Bhattarai’s remarks, “updated” loudly: UML Chair KP Oli and Prime Minister Sushil Koirala were actually foisting the new constitution on people, pushing Nepal’s Maoist-led opposition out of frame. They conveniently preferred not to take into account the fact that the process in Constituent Assembly had started in the backdrop of six failed attempts of Bhattarai’s own committee over the past three months and his party’s vandalism in the House on January 19. Even with the process started, keeping the opposition out of constitution drafting would be unrealistic.
During his visit, Bhattarai met several leaders but he must have been amazed by one man in Delhi: Narendra Modi’s National Security Advisor (NSA) and the most powerful person in the Prime Minister’s office Ajit Kumar Doval, who is often called the eyes, ears and hands of the prime minister himself. Multiple feedbacks he received had effected recent realignments in the Indian representation in Nepal.
He also seems to make no mistake that Nepal’s Maoists, like their Indian counterparts, are a far left group for whom democratic political perimeters matter only for convenience, which they tear apart no sooner their interests are served. Doval, therefore, must have very clearly conveyed to Bhattarai the message of Indian Prime Minister Modi that Nepal needed to draft its constitution with no further delay; and this would be possible only with a more responsible Maoist party. It is always the NSA who drives Delhi Express in Nepal. Interestingly, talks have restarted in Kathmandu and things suddenly look positive. How long this would last is certainly the question everyone is asking.
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