World Cup 2018: Argentina and Germany have equal 8% chances of winning

Published On: June 7, 2018 03:49 PM NPT

KATHMANDU, June 7: Defending champion Germany and its final opponent Argentina seems to have an equal 8% chances of winning FIFA World Cup 2018-Russia that is going to be held at twelve different stadiums from 14th June to 15th July. 

Whereas five-time champions Brazil is favorite with 21% chances of being champion, followed by Spain with 10% chances of winning the tournament.

According to the result of a survey done by, the draw has not been kind to Argentina. They will come up against 2010 World Champions Spain as early as the quarter-finals if both win their groups as expected. If France tops Group C, the French will not meet another winner of the last 12 World Cups until the semi-finals provided the other four previous winners all finish first in their respective groups.

Almost a 50/50 Chance of a “New” Winner

The World Cup finals have featured the same seven European and Latin American countries since 1966. Of those seven, Italy and the Netherlands failed to qualify for this year’s competition in Russia. Gracenote calculates there is a 47% chance that this year’s World Cup winners will be from a country other than Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany or Spain. A team from that quintet of countries has won every World Cup from 1970 onwards.

Knockout Phase to be Dominated by Europe and Latin America
European and Latin American teams should dominate the knockout phase. However, the African nation Senegal in Group H has the best chance of breaking that hegemony. When the number of teams is reduced from 32 to 16 for the second phase of the World Cup, Gracenote expects 10 of those 16 teams to be from Europe, five from South America and one from Central America.

What about the rest?
There is a 47% chance of a first-time winner, so someone other than Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, England or Uruguay

Latin American and European teams will dominate, with 10 of the last 16 being from Europe, five from South America and one from Central America

African side Senegal, in Group H, have a 45% chance of breaking the mold and qualifying for the last 16

Peru, who are playing at the World Cup for the first time since 1982, is tipped to be this tournament's surprise packages with a 22% chance to be in the final four

Colombia has a 21% chance of reaching the semis

Chances of reaching the knockout stages

Group A: Uruguay 77%, Russia 60%, Egypt 36%, Saudi Arabia 27%

Group B: Spain 76%, Portugal 58%, Iran 35%, Morocco 30%

Group C: France 69%, Peru 68%, Denmark 35%, Australia 27%

Group D: Argentina 82%, Croatia 57%, Iceland 35%, Nigeria 27%

Group E: Brazil 90%, Switzerland 51%, Serbia 31%, Costa Rica 28%

Group F: Germany 79%, Mexico 60%, Sweden 34%, South Korea 27%

Group G: England 71%, Belgium 71%, Tunisia 32%, Panama 26%

Group H: Colombia 77%, Poland 50%, Senegal 45%, Japan 29%

Gracenote, a Nielsen Company, provides music, video and sports metadata and technology to the world’s hottest entertainment products, services and brands. The Gracenote Sports team captures, curates and distributes in-depth sports data, including live scores, play-by-play stats and results, for more than 4,500 leagues and global competitions, including FIFA World Cup, the Olympics, English Premier League and North American leagues such as the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL.


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