It did not appear then that VP Jha was making history; at best, his swearing-in event seemed of no larger significance than a small act of defiance since, as until then, the role of Nepali language as the official lingua franca of the country had never been challenged, especially at gala state occasions like the swearing-in of the country’s topmost officials. If the oath-taking in Hindi was a sort of defiance, about the same level of defiance was reflected by VP Jha wearing kurta-pajama, instead of the national dress worn by the president.
Looking at the nature of divisions among the Madhesi parties, it is all too clear that all of them appear to be in the grip of a small coterie of caste and regional supporters.
However, during the ensuing days and weeks, VP’s Hindi-oath taking incident took larger-than-life appearance. Massive demonstrations were carried out in Kathmandu and many other places in the country; clashes erupting among opposing groups; and security forces harassed by rampaging crowds in many cities and towns who blocked traffic, burned tires, and forced businesses and markets to close.
Commotion protesting VP’s oath-taking tapered off about a month later, without resolution of the problem—that VP Jha must re-take oath in Nepali or resign. It appeared that protestors had no backing of the government in which Madhesi parties had strong representation, and Madhesi leaders of all shades and persuasions appeared pleased with VP Jha’s defiance and wished that language and cultural autonomy be allowed for all ethnic groups and not just Madhesis.
MADHES’ FALL FROM GRACE
Supreme Court’s decision against VP Jha -- almost a year after his swearing-in -- has very little to do with the legal and constitutional provisions and everything with the change of political equation that had earlier helped VP Jha as well as President Yadav to ascend to the top of political hierarchy and assert recognition for Madhesis, on par with traditional ruling elites surrounding the monarchy, almost all of them non-Madhesis. More specifically, the current row over VP Jha continuing in office is not a case of “language-chauvinism”; this event reflects almost entirely the break-up of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF), which had earlier come to symbolize rise of Madhesi power and the Madhes region’s entry into national mainstream.
With the political dominance of small-elite groups in Kathmandu, backed up by ethnic groups in the country’s mountain regions, Madhes had remained a political and administrative no-man’s land, with virtually no government presence in the region, miniscule development initiatives, and a negligible number of citizens represented in core government services, such as foreign service, police, and the military.
The victories of Madhesi parties in the CA election seemed to announce the end of exclusion of Madhes and that integration process would speed up to bring the region into national mainstream by creating an environment that guarantees equal and fair opportunities for all. More than the transition from monarchy to a republican system of governance, conceptualization of New Nepal meant the creation of an inclusive State in which all groups of people will be represented more or less in proportion to their mix in general population. Of course, in light of their large presence in the population and marginal presence in Government, the New Nepal also was meant to open up opportunities for the Madhesis and give them equal role in the running of State institutions. Elections of Madhesi president and vice-president were just the first steps toward achieving the goals of national integration and creation of an inclusive State.
Unfortunately, Madhes’ march toward recognition and integration got stalled as soon as it had started and it looks that its backward slide will not stop just with the removal of the vice president from office. The action against the vice-president seems less a matter of legal oversight or enforcement of constitutional provisions and has lots to do with the change of political equation following the break up of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF), which had earlier spearheaded the fight for Madhesi rights. Looking at the depth of animosity between the rival groups within MPRF, Madhesi unity and solidarity is unlikely to coalesce together anytime soon and, taking advantage of the situation, traditional parties such as NC and UML will do everything to deepen this split with full awareness that their own existence as a political force in Madhes will be jeopardized with the emergence of a united MPRF and occurrence of Madhesi unity of any sort.
Making an assessment of the dispute between Upendra Yadav and Bijay Gachchhadar—leaders of the rival MPRF groups—it would be fair to say that the split was not imposed from outside; rather, this was occasioned by the over-confidence of party chairman Yadav as being the supreme leader of the party and his neglect of party cadres operating in the field. The final nail in the coffin of his leadership of MPRF was his long absence from the country on esoteric foreign trips, including at a time of fragile and dangerous situation that emerged back home with the deepening row over Government’s control of the army and president’s move to reinstate the army chief. Bijay Gachchhadar simply took advantage of Yadav’s absence from the country, his aloofness from his cadres, and allegations of nepotism and caste-ism.
KEEPING PEACE IN MADHES
Madhes genie is out of the bottle. The problem faced by mainstream parties is how to keep it controlled and contained or, otherwise, it carries the potential for doing incalculable harm. The ruling ethnic elites and their backers may be pleased with the weakening of MPRF and evaporation of Madhesi clout, which should make it easier for them to usher-in another era of isolation and exclusion for Madhes. Otherwise, why else the emerging alliance between bitter political foes and ideological rivals like NC and Maoists, and UML playing a catch-up role? Despite the façade of their differences in the context of Government control of the Army and monarchy’s place in New Nepal, NC, UML, and Maoists seem speaking with one voice on issues concerning Madhes and all of them seem relieved that threats from Madhesi parties are now sharply diminished that would help keep them at bay for the foreseeable future.
Looking at the nature of divisions among the Madhesi parties, it is all too clear that all of them appear to be in the grip of a small coterie of caste and regional supporters and too conscious of their own brand of leadership at the expense of Madhesi population’s larger interests. In some instances, inter-party relations among the Madhesi parties look far more contemptuous and dismissive than how they view other rival parties. With such lack of commonality of interest, Madhesi parties are hardly in a position to convince anyone that they are there to protect Madhesi interests and certainly are not trusted for being loyal citizens.
Should the case be otherwise, why would they be so preoccupied with protecting their own turf and promoting their own brand of leadership when all of them face equal level of treatment—call it neglect, indifference, exclusion, or non-recognition—from the established parties—NC, UML, Maoists. It is true that these parties are driven by very different ideologies, are divided on key national issues, and project very different image of the country’s future. However, when it comes to issues concerning Madhes—equal rights, autonomy, inclusion and fairer distribution of resources—they all band together to put up a common front opposing them. Otherwise, why would Maoists float the idea of Sujata Koirala be their choice for Prime Minister when her opponent, Upendra Yadav, lost so much giving them critical support during their show-down with the Army?
If, indeed, there is a strategy to keep Madhesi parties isolated from the national mainstream, this should not be a wise way of coaxing the Madhesi-genie back into the bottle. There already are more than a hundred armed groups operating all across Madhes who are ready to take advantage of the political vacuum created by this isolation. It is true that many of these armed groups are no more than criminal gangs feasting over the disappearance of Government from most of Madhesi territory but more than a dozen of them are up for serious bargaining—regional autonomy and much more. Compared to the potential threat posed by these armed groups, VP Jha’s defiance looks no more challenging than a cake-walk!
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