Haiti and Nepal are quite similar in some aspects. Just like we are proud of our past, the Haitians too consider their history no less glorious—with the natives defeating the French colonial master and declaring independence in 1804, the first one to do so in Latin America. However, Haiti remained poor. Thanks to the extractive nature of its former colonial master followed by series of tin pot dictators.
The grinding poverty of Haiti can be gauged from the fact that when food prices rose, the Haiti’s poorest could no longer afford even one square meal of rice. They took the desperate measure of the traditional Haitian remedy for hunger pangs: Biscuits made of dried yellow dirt from the country’s mountains, butter, salt and water. Although Nepal has not faced an equally devastating situation, both countries are very close to each other in the UN Human Development Index (HDI)— Nepal ranks at 144 and Haiti at 149. The other similarity is that, like Haiti, Nepal is situated at an active seismic zone.
The Himalayas are the result of continuing collision between India and Eurasia driven by tectonic plate movement that started more than 60 million years ago—prior to this there used to be an open sea, Tethys Sea, and India was almost where Antarctica is today. Then, India started to move north and finally around 60 million years ago it collided with Eurasia and then over the course of these intervening millions of years the mighty Himalayas were created. India began to slip ever so slowly underneath Eurasia and the process continues to this day.
Several scientific studies have already shown that conditions are ripe for a mega earthquake to strike Nepal such as the one that struck eastern Nepal in 1934. Western Nepal appears to be especially vulnerable to it.
In the past 100 years of ongoing collision of India into Eurasia has resulted in three major earthquakes along the Himalayan front. From east to west, the sequence includes the 1950 Assam earthquake (8.4 Magnitude), the 1934 eastern Nepal earthquake (8.1 Magnitude) and the 1905 Kangara earthquake (7.7 Magnitude). Plate motion models and GPS measurements from CIRES and the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA (Nature, March, 1997, Volume 386; Nature, September, 2006, Volume, 4) indicate that the India-Eurasia convergence continues today at a rate of 40-50 mm/yr.
Due to the force of this movement, rocks tens of kilometers beneath the earth’s surface eventually begin to strain or bend. As convergence continues, the strain increases to the point of breaking or fracturing the rocks, unleashing a tremendous energy from that spot which travels at the speed of several kilometers per second. Within seconds, rocks get displaced suddenly and then they snap into a new position. This released energy travels in the form of vibrations called seismic waves that then causes the earth’s surface to vibrate and, thus, cause damage to life and property.
In Nepal, great earthquakes have occurred infrequently. The recurrence of the great earthquakes is determined by the rate of slip of India beneath Eurasia. Several scientific studies have already shown that conditions are ripe for a mega earthquake to strike Nepal such as the one that struck eastern Nepal in 1934 (8.1 Magnitude). Western Nepal appears to be especially vulnerable to it. In contrast, chances of a mega earthquake to strike eastern Nepal are lower according to studies.
Western Nepal has not experienced a major earthquake for 500 years. Earthquakes in 1803 (Uttarkashi) and 1834 (Nepal) have been assigned maximum magnitude of 7.7 and there is no evidence that any other huge earthquake occurred beneath the Kumaon Himalayas or in western Nepal in the past 500 years. Only very long ago, in 1505 there was a huge earthquake and the CIRES and the University of Colorado, Boulder research shows that the strain in the rocks built up over the last 500 years is now sufficient to trigger a mega earthquake.
The effect of the ‘Big One’, of course, would be devastating because Nepal is not too different from Haiti. We have extreme poverty, political instability and no rule of law, which from the earthquake point of view can easily translate into total chaos. Take the glaring example of Kathmandu valley. Knowing where to build and how to build our buildings can help reduce injury, loss of life, and property damage during an earthquake. Also, knowing what to do when an earthquake strikes can help prevent injuries and deaths. Do we ever follow rules and know what to do when an earthquake strikes given the fact that all scientific research suggests optimum conditions for a major earthquake especially in western Nepal?
Protecting the typical buildings in Kathmandu valley from earthquakes includes techniques such as bolting buildings to their foundations and providing support walls. Alternately, during construction phase, installation of shock absorbers between the building and its foundation can enable the absorption of some of the sideways motion that would otherwise damage a building during a powerful earthquake.
It is ridiculous that high-rise buildings that need to apply special construction techniques to make them earthquake-resistant have started cropping up in Kathmandu. Tall buildings must be anchored deeply and securely into the ground. In earthquake prone regions such as Nepal, a reinforced framework with stronger joints is absolutely necessary to prevent its collapse during a mega earthquake.
To make homes, schools, and workplaces earthquake-resistant, people should have their heavy furniture fastened down to the floor to prevent them from toppling when the building shakes. According to NASA, water lines must be specially reinforced with flexible joints to prevent breaking.
I am quite sure that our high-rise buildings have not followed these precautions as doing so can be costly. Thus, the only solution is that the common folks must learn how to protect themselves during an earthquake. People can protect themselves by standing under a doorframe or crouching under a table or chair until the shaking stops. They should not go outdoors until the shaking has stopped completely. Even then, people should use extreme caution. A large earthquake may be followed by many smaller tremors, called aftershocks. People should stay clear of walls, windows, and damaged structures, which could crash in an aftershock. People who are outdoors when an earthquake occurs should quickly move away from tall trees, steep slopes, buildings, and electricity lines. If they are near a large body of water, they should move to higher ground.
The potential for a mega earthquakes is very high in western Nepal and may God protect us all if and when it does happen because the country is ill-prepared and ill-equipped to face it and the chaos that will follow.
avantikaregmi@aol.com
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