Between two choices before us—either to surrender to Indian wishes or to assert ourselves—many of us will definitely go for the second option, of protecting our sovereignty and independent status in the comity of nations. But simply wishing to remain free is meaningless. There is a price to pay for it and we should be aware of this hard reality. Eternal vigilance is the cost we have to pay in order to sustain our independence.We have been put to test again. The southern neighbor has been obstructing the flow of essential goods, including fuel and life-saving medicines, into Nepal. The current crisis is thus our litmus test in many ways.
We again have to understand that we are at crossroads in terms of retaining our status as a sovereign country. We may not have a high opinion for Dr. Baburam Bhattarai as a political leader. But as an insider at the time of promulgation of new constitution and an ex-prime minister, he had hinted of emerging crisis and vulnerability of Nepal's existence as a sovereign country. Although it is too early to pass judgment on KP Sharma Oli-headed government, it has yet not done anything to show that it is aware of the gravity of situation.
The government is yet to come out with a clear statement that India has imposed an economic blockade on Nepal, with disastrous consequences to the latter's economy and life of common man. Deputy Prime Minister of outgoing government, Prakash Man Singh, let the nation down by not speaking a word about the blockade, which was already in force when he addressed the UN General Assembly last month.
The new Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa too did not name India while speaking at the recent international human-rights gathering in Geneva about interruptions of regular supply of goods and fuel into Nepal. He unjustifiably left his audience to guess the country responsible for it. He, however, described how Nepalis are reeling under shortage of fuel for transportation and cooking.
Along the way, Nepal has lost hundreds of billions of rupees due to closure of industries, disruption of internal and external trade and shutting down of schools and colleges. The country is facing shortage of medicines including life-saving ones, which would now have to be airlifted into the country. The loss in recent earthquake appears minuscule compared to the costs of the blockade.
The worst part is that there is as yet no sign of end of the so-called movement launched by the Madheshis in Tarai and of external pressure. The government is yet to make its presence felt and yet to show the guts to take action against those who are challenging the country's territorial integrity. The Oli government is, on the whole, playing cool on the issue that is excruciatingly difficult for the common people of Nepal.
Nepal is moving slowly but surely towards confrontation. With such clear writing on the wall, it is unfortunate that the Oli government is yet to realize the seriousness of the situation both at home and across the southern border. Surprisingly it has yet to seek the help of the international community against the injustice done to her by the big southern neighbor. Nor, as the chairperson of SAARC, has Nepal sought any help from the regional body.
People, including those living in the Tarai, are confused about why they have to suffer from shortage of essential goods. The government owes them an explanation, which it has failed to do so far. Are the Madheshi compatriots singly to be blamed for it? Is India honest when it refuses to acknowledge the blockade? What about the Government of India's instructions to its border forces and customs officials which are often cited as the reason for breakdown of regular supplies? Why is the government reluctant to respond to the offer of help from the Chinese? And is the government, after all that has happened, still scared of incurring Indian ire?
There are so many questions the government is obliged to answer. Back in 2006 the then King Gyanendra was in a similar position in the wake of the people's movement. He was swept away in no time when people started coming out in the streets. Do our so-called representatives of the people also suffer from the same fatal blindness and deafness?
If the situation doesn't improve in the next few days we should not be surprised if some Madheshi leaders make unilateral declaration of independence or form a government in exile or in a particular part of Tarai. That can happen only with the consent of Indian government, which, on the basis of indications coming from their different organizations, would lend support and extend immediate recognition to such an independent state or government in exile. How will the Nepali government respond to such a development is a wild guess. Under constitutional obligation, the government would need to mobilize the army.
But we doubt the government composed of gutless leaders will dare make such a move. If they do they will confront newly-formed security forces of the new state manned mostly by Indian Jawans in disguise. The confrontation will certainly invite intervention of Indian army to prevent what will be described as genocide of Madheshi people. In case of any military intervention from India, China will certainly come to Nepal's rescue as China is concerned about the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nepal, obviously for her own national interest.
That means Nepal will turn into a theater of war between India and China. The Oli government, all this while, will remain confined to Singh Durbar, still silent. Our anticipation may be misplaced, but what more can we expect from a spineless and unaccountable government?
Shrestha is a veteran political commentator and Dhungel is a former Secretary with the Government of Nepal
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