For the UCPN (Maoist) whose twin goals – establishing a republic and writing a constitution through elected assembly – are very much real today, the stakes should be higher than most others. We have lost nearly six months for nothing. Their issue – usurpation of civilian supremacy – was non-existent from Day One. Now even the columnists who cried hoarse about “civilian supremacy” are writing about how stale it has become and there are added suggestions to drop it.
In their frustration for quitting a government over the dismissal of army chief who was retiring two months later anyway, the Maoists have launched a series of protests. Phase 4 – launching nationwide indefinite strike – will begin from Jan 24, next year. It will be difficult for the Maoists to accept that the government is here to stay. It hurts, and hurts a lot when you simply come face-to-face with your sheer foolishness and misadventurism. No level of protest programs is going to topple the Madhav Kumar Nepal government. The numbers are there. Only withdrawal of support by significant number of MPs (be it from NC or a combination of smaller parties) will bring this government down.
The CPA is still the best document that we have to guide the peace process through a labyrinth of problems put in place by the political parties. Honoring its provisions as well as correcting any drift from it will take us forward in the true sense.
And why be so obsessed with leading the government? After all this government, or for that matter any government during a post-war transition phase, has limited authority. The tasks for it are clear cut – run the affairs of the state until the constitution is written and next (general) elections held. And this is not going to be forever. The task has a deadline, May 28, 2010.
So instead of spending energy on plotting plans and launching a marathon protest program, it would be prudent on the part of the Maoists to seize leadership of the constitution-writing process. It is bound to pay them rich and long-term dividends. Of course, the trappings of power are hard to resist, but Maoist party leaders need to control their chairman’s not-so secret-desire to reside in Baluwatar by hook or by crook. It is hurting the party’s image and prospects.
What if the Maoists don’t agree to abandon their quest for a government under their leadership? What if the writing of the constitution continues at a slow pace so as to miss the deadline?
Constitutional experts and legal brains are now writing in newspapers, debating in TV talk shows and speaking on FM radios about the possible scenario if the deadline is missed. Depending on the constituency they represent and the political ideology they believe in, they have given a variety of “what next” predictions. Some of the constitutional lawyers who hold constitutionality to highest esteem have said that the Constituent Assembly cannot extend its life, which has a fixed term of two years that expires on May 28, next year. But almost everyone, with a notable exception of president’s advisor Dr Surya Dhungel, has dismissed the interpretation that the CA and the parliament would cease to exist and all powers will concentrate in the hands of the president.
I hope those who are raising the demand, and hoping, for the president’s rule immediately after May 28 will take note of this. This interpretation of the Interim Constitution and the suggested option will meet with stiff resistance; hence it will be better to drop the idea altogether.
A less dramatic option will be taking a political decision on extending the life of the CA by amending the Interim Constitution, provided the constitution is not promulgated on the stipulated date. If all the political parties agree, and I don’t see how they can do otherwise, it should not be difficult.
More dramatic, and unwanted, option will be taking the “might is right” route. On Dec 21, Dr Baburam Bhattarai, speaking to an FM station, warned that if the deadline is missed, the one wielding the gun will rule. Perhaps he had his own party, UCPN (Maoist), which still effectively controls the Maoist army, in mind.
I can only hope that after the fiasco over dismissing Rookmangud Katawal, the last army chief, the Maoists have learnt their lessons. Dr Bhattarai, one would presume, was sounding brave and issuing a routine threat. But uncannily he has spoken the truth. If indeed the deadline is missed and if there is no subsequent all-party consensus to extend the assembly’s life, then indeed what Maoist vice-chairman has predicted will become a reality. But it won’t be their party controlling the reins of the government.
The best course available is to complete the constitution-writing on time and promulgate it and announce the dates for the general election. The available five months, given the ground covered by various committees of the Constitutional Assembly, may be just enough. And if the work for drafting the constitution is taken in earnest, a little extension of the CA would not hurt.
However, this is very difficult to achieve as the political parties would calculate their gains and losses. The result of the next election is already shaping many of their decisions.
In the meantime, it will serve everyone’s interest to go for review of the implementation of the provision of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the government and the then Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). Even UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon had made a similar call, on Oct 26, and not without reason.
Ban had actually repeated his previous call. But his suggestion got lost in the other suggestion he made – formation of a national unity government. It was in the interest of the three big political parties to laud (the Maoist) and criticize (the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML) the call for unity government. It was also in their deep interest to feign ignorance about the call for review of the implementation of the CPA. Both sides have breached the CPA right since it was signed on Nov 21, 2006; hence the uncomfortable silence by these parties.
Do not mistake it as an endorsement of Defense Minister Bidya Bhandari’s – there are others as well – call to review the CPA itself. In other words, scrap it altogether. The CPA is still the best document that we have to guide the peace process through a labyrinth of problems put in place by the political parties. Honoring its provisions as well as correcting any drift from it will take us forward in the true sense.
Coming so close to realizing the aspirations of the Nepali people – establishing lasting peace, a constitution reflecting their will and faster development – it would be foolish to squander the opportunity.
damakant@myrepublica.com
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