There are, at least, six key messages in Poudel’s victory.
First and foremost— Poudel’s victory shows CHANGE is still possible in Nepali political parties and offers a glimmer of hope for the NC and Nepali politics. And, never forget that this is a change effected by the NC leaders and lawmakers. During the last several years, especially after Girija Prasad Koirala (GPK) became party president some 13 years ago, it felt as if nothing was going to change in the NC, definitely not unless its adamant president wanted it. All the other leaders and lawmakers seemed helpless against the octogenarian Koirala, partly because he is so forceful as a leader and partly because he is too much of a father figure in the NC to be challenged or ignored. But now changes are taking place, and they are taking place ignoring Koirala’s wishes.
Poudel was among a few NC leaders to quickly figure out that democracy and monarchy could no longer go hand in hand and they needed to part ways.
Second, Poudel’s resounding victory is also an overwhelming rejection of GPK’s decision to impose his daughter, Sujata Koirala, as the NC’s leader in the cabinet. Horrible a decision as it was the defiance that GPK showed in the face of requests by senior NC leaders to review the decision was even more humiliating. NC leaders and cadres have now avenged that indignity and also redeemed themselves in the eyes of the general public by proving that they, too, matter in the NC. Poudel, Sushil Koirala and Prakash Man Singh were at the forefront in opposing GPK’s decision to anoint his daughter and now the coalition led by this trio has defeated Sher Bahadur Deuba, who received active backing from Sujata and possibly the secret blessings of GPK.
The third message comes from Deuba’s defeat. Deuba had already served as NC parliamentary party leader once and as prime minister thrice. But his track record as prime minister is not only uninspiring but on many counts hopeless. Deuba, as a leader, is already a spent force— you can hardly expect anything new from him. And the NC lawmakers seem to have realized that. One of the problems with the NC was that its middle ranks and cadres lacked democratic control of the party leadership. If these leaders feel that the cadres somehow cannot replace them, they will not feel the need to be accountable to the party base. And gradually the cadres also feel hopeless. By denying Deuba yet another chance at leadership, the NC lawmakers have not only regained their own self-confidence but also send a strong message to the top leadership: Either perform or bow out.
Fourth, Poudel’s victory also amply demonstrates that the division between the leaders and cadres of the NC and erstwhile NC (D) is blurring fast and the party has moved on since their unification some two years ago. Now the party appears like two decks of cards shuffled together successfully. Deuba’s once most trusted lieutenants are no longer with him—Prakash Man Singh, Pradeep Giri, Purna Bahadur Khadka and Deep Kumar Upadhyaya very possibly voted against him while Sujata Koirala &Co. aggressively campaigned to have Deuba elected. The Koirala family also no longer shares a common platform— most probably Suhil Koirala, Dr Shekhar Koirala and Shashanka Koirala are unlikely to be in the same camp with Sujata again. That will free the party from the burden of family loyalty.
Fifth, Poudel’s victory also shows the rise of the centrists within the NC and this will play a key role in checking any possible drift of national politics toward the right as some pundits have feared. Poudel comes from a humble family background in Tanahu and believes strongly in democratic socialism— sometimes his economic prescriptions are arcane but his belief that the state should play a role in lifting the poor from abject poverty and spend heavily on health and education is what a poor country like ours needs the most.
Sixth, NC lawmakers seem to have chosen Poudel for his sacrifice, commitment, patience and relatively clean image, which means all these virtues still pay in politics. Poudel is hardly a charismatic leader; sometimes it appears that he perennially lacks energy and enthusiasm. But that masks the other side of his personality: He is a steady leader, perhaps made for the long haul. Ever since he quit left-student politics and joined the NC after King Mahendra seized power in 1960, Poudel has remained a loyal party man. Over 13 years in jail and several years of humiliation and suffering under the Panchayat system failed to dent his commitment to democracy and loyalty to the NC.
Poudel also has a relatively clean image. After the political change of 1990, very few NC leaders have remained in power as long as Poudel has. He led several ministries; became a deputy prime minister and also speaker of parliament and yet he is among the few NC leaders to have left office without any major controversy. Poudel has also shown good judgment when needed: After Gyanendra seized power in 2005, Poudel was among a few NC leaders to quickly figure out that democracy and monarchy could no longer go hand in hand and they needed to part ways.
But this is just the beginning of the leadership journey for Poudel. And leadership brings its own responsibility, challenges and burdens. The biggest challenge for him comes in the NC’s upcoming general convention. GPK will no longer contest the post of all-powerful NC president because of the statutory restriction against a third term and also because of his health. If Poudel manages to consolidate the present coalition that defeated Deuba and persuade Sushil Koirala to make way for his leadership, he may be able to get himself elected as the next NC president.
ameetdhakal@gmail.com
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