On August 23, 2023, reports emerged of a plane crash in the Tver Region of Russia; the plane was carrying the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner’s Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his close aide Dmitry Utkin. The death of Prigozhin has sent ripples across the group and its loyalists and could have a long-term impact concerning its relationship with the Russian state.

What is Wagner?

Wagner has been instrumental in Russia’s advances in recent times in Ukraine, particularly Bakhmut. However, the group before the Ukraine conflict predominantly focused on the African region.  When the group was formed by Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2014, the group’s sole purpose was to support the Russian military operations in Donbas. The focus over time changed from limiting itself to the Ukrainian region, and the group began to move internationally, making Africa their primary focus. Over the years, Wagner has become synonymous with the regional situation of Africa with its involvement in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and Sudan. The group was attributed with providing security to the leaderships in the region. Apart from Africa, Wagner was involved in Syria, whose primary focus was to provide security for oil, gas, and phosphate fields across the Central and Eastern regions.

Wagner, regionally, returned to Ukraine only after the conflict continued to show no means toward an end. Wagner’s main focus in the conflict has been a strong offensive, creating inroads for the Russian armies to gain space and territorial dominance.

Wagner’s Fractured Relationship with the Russian State and Society

Despite the successes during the Ukraine conflict, Wagner has had a fractured relationship with the Russian state. The group’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was the Russian President's close confidant and popularly known as “Putin’s Chef” in the West. Despite close links to the leadership, the group was never registered, mainly due to Russian law not allowing private military companies to be established. The leadership in Russia has always distanced itself from being linked with Wagner but has reaped the benefits of what the group has sowed outside the region.

The relationship with the leadership had improved overall, except for the Defence ministry during the Bakhmut campaign. This relationship, however, took a turn for the worse with Prigozhin’s growing aspirations for power. The Wagner mobilization in Rostov and the subsequent attempts at a coup to topple the Russian leadership created massive friction between Prigozhin and Vladimir Putin.

Though the attempts did show some support for the group in the military town of Rostov, there was increased support for the Russian establishment after the coup's failure. The main reason for the gains in support in Rostov was the victory in Bakhmut and the constant engagement of the town population with various military groups fighting in Ukraine. The increased popularity among the public is one which had developed only after the group’s involvement in Ukraine. Before that, Wagner was more notorious than popular in Russian society. Such a fracture has been visible in the past and is currently present after the demise of Prigozhin, with some parts of the population feeling no remorse for his loss.

What is the Future of Wagner

The next big question remains what the future holds for Wagner, Utkin, and Prigozhin, who were the main pillars of the group. Their demise has shaken the entire structure, which could have a monumental impact on the whole functioning of the group.

Russian Establishment Supported Leader

One of the significant initiatives the Russian state took while the mystery of the death of Wagner Chief was unraveling was the swearing of allegiance of the Wagner patriots into the Russian establishment. This comes after Russia asked the Wagner group to return most of the heavy weaponry after the failed coup attempt in June in return for avoiding persecution. With the lack of weapons and swearing allegiance, another critical step that the Kremlin could take is putting up their own ‘individual’ in the leadership framework of Wagner, most likely one close to the military establishment. One name rumored to replace Prigozhin is Andrei Troshev, popularly known as ‘Sedoi,’ a Wagner military commander and a Soviet war veteran from the Afghan campaign. Sedoi has an army background, is nationalist, and is said to have the backing of the Russian establishment. If the leadership does change shortly, the Russian state has tactfully decided to ensure the support of the Wagner soldiers.

Reactions of Wagner over Russia

While some of Wagner would have pledged allegiance to the Russian state given its strong nationalist stance, some of the Wagner soldiers could have had a different viewpoint. The creation of memorials and Wagner soldiers’ strong emotions across Russia show that a strong sentiment was present concerning Prigozhin. The threat of some Wagner officials towards the Russian state was also visible in specific videos. Though there are strong pro-Russia nationalistic sentiments among the Wagner forces, there are elements whose loyalty is limited to Prigozhin and who blame the Russian state for his demise. Radical anti-state elements on the Ukrainian battlefield could exploit this complexity within the organization. The Russian Volunteer Corps, an anti-state group, has offered an opening for the disgruntled Wagner forces to fight against the Russian establishment. Such situations, however, aren’t very concerning for the state given how most of the weapons of the Wagner are with the Russian Defence ministry and with allegiance giving them a solid incentive to return to the Russian state. There would surely be elements within Wagner who would go against the state but the success rate may be disputed.

African Contingent

One central question is what happens to the African contingent of Wagner. Wagner has been instrumental in bringing about regime stability in Africa, and its African contingent has been at the forefront of Wagner’s successes overseas. In some ways, Wagner’s African expeditions and its peace efforts have assisted in expanding Russia’s footprints in Africa. It also opens up a space for Russia to increase its regional influence. With Russian efforts to diversify from Europe due to the situation in Ukraine, Africa is one option and a good relationship with the nations is necessary. 

The increasing demands of decolonisation in Africa have Wagner footprints, including the recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.  Their involvement in decolonisation meant that it would reduce European influence; thereby, Russia would fill the vacuum. The demise of Prigozhin, however, could create a slight hiccup; he was the main link between Wagner and the numerous states. The recent coup-like situations in Africa could garner further instability, which would mean a more active role for Wagner despite losing leadership.

With the demand of allegiance and swearing loyalty to the Russian state a necessity, Wagner would become part and parcel of the Russian establishment; hence, the African leaderships who once communicated with Prigozhin would now discuss with the state, ensuring direct contact with the Russian state.  The new leadership of Wagner would have the Russian state stamp, and the activities would continue in Africa but with a more legitimized motive and functioning. The loss of Prigozhin could have a short-term impact on Wagner’s functioning in Africa, but in the long run, a more stabilised Wagner could again see success in Africa.

The Rest of the PMC, what lessons they may seek to learn

Unlike its predecessor, the Slavonic Corps, Wagner has been instrumental in the rise of PMCs in Russia. Wagner’s successes across the regional and international arena have led to a surge in PMCs across Russia. Groups like Gazprom have formed their PMCs to protect their interests across the international arena. The only difference between Wagner and the rest was that Wagner, under Prigozhin, had political ambitions. In contrast, the other PMCs are limited to protecting their assets. There were reports of other PMCs providing Wagner support during the Ukraine campaign in Bakhmut but they did not involve themselves in the coup attempts and were limited to serving their leadership and the Russian state. There is a limited chance that any other PMC would take up strong anti-state sentiments as Wagner did, and they would instead learn from the mistakes of Wagner and ensure a pro-state policy to ensure their long-term survival. 

 
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