What can be achieved out of the visit? The prime minister should strive for the southern neighbor’s unconditional support and goodwill on two fronts: salvaging the peace process and curbing crimes in the Tarai during his one-on-one meeting with his Indian counterpart Dr Manmohan Singh. Whether one likes it or not, India does have influence over major political actors in Nepal, who, unfortunately, have this inexplicable capacity to disagree on almost everything unless there is external pressure. That’s a reality we have been made to live with. Therefore, India’s good wishes and support needs to be secured to consolidate the gains in the peace process and remove hurdles.
When it comes to the Tarai, India’s role in the turmoil there is at best dubious. It is a reality that those wanted by Nepali law find sanctuary in India, a fact that prominently came to the fore during the 1996-2006 Maoist insurgency. The armed outfits in the Tarai, most of which are involved in crimes under the cover of political demands, find shelter down south. While it is true that Indian police have handed over some to their Nepali counterparts and this could not have been possible without nod from New Delhi, it is equally true that Indian cities play host to clandestine meetings of the armed gangs. In some cases, Indian intelligence officials have been participating in such meetings and goading the disparate groups to come together for the ‘Madhesi cause’. We really don’t know whether these meetings take place at the express wish of the Indian federal government but it is difficult to believe that New Delhi is not aware of them. Prime Minister Nepal must demand an immediate end to this practice. So long as the Indian officials – federal or state – try to prop up Tarai outfits, the Indian government’s claim that it wants peace and stability in Nepal will ring hollow.
Nepal might be tempted to make his visit a highly successful one by trying to secure some tangible ‘gains’ during the visit. We advise him to avoid doing that and just focus on winning India’s good wishes and at the same time assuring her that her genuine security concerns will not be overlooked.
Will PM Oli visit India in mid-January?