With under two months to the D-day, the countdown to November 19 has well and truly started. Paradoxically, preparations seem to have gained momentum after the failure of the latest round of talks with the 33 agitating parties under Mohan Baidya’s CPN-Maoist.
Although HLPC leaders as well as government representatives have vowed to keep talking with the agitating forces, they have also been hinting that the dissenting parties are not serious about polls and the country should be ready to go to election even without their consent. [break]
The agitating parties for their part blame HLPC of dismissing their demands out of hand. We hope that the door to dialogue is kept open by both the sides and some kind of a negotiated solution can still be found. But in case no such agreement is forthcoming, the government and its political backers will face a great challenge: ensuring the election takes place on schedule and more importantly, that it is credible and violence-free. This will be no mean task.
The nervousness among the security agencies is palpable. They have drastically increased their monetary demands with the government in light of the November 19 vote. Previously, the Home Ministry had demanded over Rs 8 billion from the Ministry of Finance for security purposes. Now the amount required may exceed Rs 14 billion, in view of additional demands from Nepal Army, Nepal Police and Armed Police Force.
Their jitteriness is justifiable. CPN-Maoist has in its ranks many influential insurgent leaders who were at the forefront of the 10-year-long civil war. If they are determined, they can create a lot of trouble for law enforcement agencies on election date.
One of the options would be to provoke government forces. If they succeed and the army has to take up arms anywhere in the country on election day, it could create a potentially explosive situation, with unforeseeable consequences. CPN-Maoist might even take it as a breach of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and herald another armed conflict. Troublingly, CPN-Maoist leaders don’t rule out this possibility.
Even if there is limited violence on election date, leaving out a sizable force like CPN-Maoist would put a question mark over the credibility of such an election, especially one that will lead to the writing of the supreme law of the land. If CPN-Maoist is not ready to join the election process at any cost, the election must go ahead, even with the potential use of force. But considering the enormous costs (financial and otherwise) of keeping them out, every option to bring them around must be exhausted, which is not the case right now.
For instance in the most recent round of dialogue the head of the government could have offered to relinquish his CJ duties, offering the agitating parties a strong face-saver. That was not meant to be. But there is still time for vital compromise.
The security agencies have made additional demands as they want to ensure ‘foolproof’ security on election date. But no amount of money can ensure complete security. Only a political settlement will come close. The security bodies should be prepared for all eventualities, no doubt. Still the best bet is to create a situation where they might not have to fire a single shot on November 19.
Related story
Money and life
