Republica briefly chatted with them to figure out who could possibly win the Constituent Assembly (CA) election in Ilam-1, where the CPN (UML) chairman Jhalnath Khanal is seeking his fourth victory since 1992. [break]
What they unanimously agreed on was a bit astounding: Khanal, whose competition is with relatively little known faces of Nepali Congress, the UCPN (Maoist) and Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSPN), is less likely to win the election this time around.
However, when one of them, Basudev Adhikari, introduced himself as a Godak village committee member of NC, it was only natural for him, and his aides, to make the claim.
However, a little way up, at a roadside tea shop, Republica caught up with two local farmers, who echoed what exactly Adhikari claimed. When asked if they were, like Adhikari, NC members, one of them retorted, "Everybody knows Godak has always been a communist village."
He further explained that a majority of people in Godak have been voting for Khanal since 1992, when Nepal held its first ever general election after the historic people´s movement of 1990. "But this time," said he, "We will not vote for Khanal."
In Ilam-1, which comprises 15 VDCs of Ilam east of Maikhola, Khanal has won three elections including the first CA election held in 2008.
Only in 1999, Khanal was defeated by NC candidate Benup Raj Prasai. But, Prasai´s victory was by a very slim margin of just 107 votes. In 2008, Khanal bounced back, defeating Prasain with a comfortable margin of 3,881 votes.
In 2013, Khanal faces challenges from NC´s Himalaya Karmacharya, the UCPN (Maoist)´s Yubak Kumar Poudel and FSPN´s Devendra Kumar Rai. None of Khanal´s competitors is as big a name as him.
However, despite being a national level leader pitted against relatively little known leaders and wining three out of four elections since 1992, Khanal now faces mammoth challenges like never before.
As Republica spoke to nearly two dozens of people along the Mechi highway, from Maikhola to Kolbung that lies in Ilam-1, hardly any one believed Khanal will win victory this time.
"He (Khanal) is himself not sure of his victory in Ilam," said Hari Luintel, a local teacher in Fikkal. "This is why he decided to contest the election from Sarlahi as well."
So, what went wrong for Khanal in the last five years? Why does Khanal, who secured a resounding victory in the 2008 CA polls even as top CPN (UML) leaders like Madhav Kumar Nepal and K.P. Oli faced humiliating defeats, now face seemingly insurmountable hurdles?
First, the emergence of FSPN has badly affected the CPN (UML) in Ilam-1.
Influential CPN (UML) leaders like Kamal Chamling, Bhawani Sanwa, Devendra Rai have defected to FSPN, which has weakened Khanal´s base in villages like Gorkhe and Panchakanya in Ilam-1.
Second, Federal Limbuwan State Council (FLSC), which is now emerging as a regional party in eastern Nepal, has launched a campaign to portray Khanal as an anti-federalist.
“The first CA itself could have written a new constitution if Khanal had played a positive role for identity-based federalism," says Sanjuhang Palungwa, FLSC chairman. "In Ilam, we have been convincing everyone that we lost an opportunity to have our own autonomous Limbuwan state just because of Khanal´s negative role."
Third, Khanal has been perceived by the locals as a ´tourist´ candidate.
Originally from Sakhejung, which falls under Ilam-3, Khanal visited his constituency only twice after winning the 2008 polls. His ´tourist´ image only grew when he shifted a technical school to his own village.
Udaya Rai, district secretariat member of the CPN (UML), tries to defend Khanal´s decision to establish the school in Sakhejung instead of Fikkal or Kanyam, also in Ilam-1, as he did not get enough land in his constituency.
“As no one was ready to provide land for the school, he himself donated 56 ropanis of land in his village,” says Rai.
But, the people in Ilam-1 do not buy that argument. They allege that he shifted the school to his own village so that his lands would fetch higher prices. Khanal has failed to improve his image tarnished by the shifting of the school.
Fourth, like many other leaders, Khanal faces accusations that he did not fulfill his promises. The locals say they are angry with Khanal because he, they allege, did not do anything for Ilam-1 even when he became Nepal´s prime minister.
Paras Khatiwada, a resident of Panchakanya-1, wants to introduce himself as a democrat. But, he admits that he voted for Khanal in the 2008 polls.
"I am a traditionally NC supporter," says he. "But I voted for Khanal because he promised to upgrade local drinking water project."
According to Khatiwada, local CPN (UML) leaders like Bishnu Dewan, Chhatramani Rai, Dipendra Rai and Uday Rai convinced the people of Panchakanya and Fikkal that their drinking water project would be expanded.
"But, let alone expanding the project, we could not even set up water taps in our houses," says he. "I no longer trust Khanal."
Even as Khanal´s poll prospect looks dim, UCPN (Maoist)´s Poudel is unlikely to win the battle. Even in the 2008 poll, the UCPN (Maoist) had lagged far behind the CPN (UML) and NC.
(With inputs from Benup Raj Bhattarai in Ilam)
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