According to Meteorological Forecasting Division (MFD) of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), only 33.5 percent of the expected monsoon rain has been recorded in Kathmandu valley so far."July has nearly ended but rain has yet to intensify. Like in the past, we are likely to see deficit rainfall," said Pratibha Manandhar, meteorologist at MFD.
July is considered wettest monsoon month that normally kicks off from the second week of June. Traditionally, June 10 is considered the date of monsoon onset in Nepal. However, the onset of monsoon in Nepal was delayed by three days this year.
MFD considers 701.5mm of rain as a normal for July. Until July 29, only 433.3 mm of rain has been measured, which is a deficit of -35.8 percent.
This situation of deficit rain in July is not a new phenomenon, however. As per the records, the year 2012 and 2014 had encountered similar deficit rainfall. With only 506 mm of rainfall, July 2014 saw a shortfall of -27.8 percent. Similar was the situation in 2012, when only 542.6mm of rainfall was experienced, resulting in a deficit of -22.6 percent of rain.
"The year 2013 was comparatively better. A total of 664 mm of rainfall was measured, which was a deficit of only -5.4 percent. The rainfall that year was significantly good," said Pratibha.
Normal rainfall for any given month is the average rainfall observed in the last three decades. Daily measurement of rain in Kathmandu is taken from eight weather stations installed at different locations of the Kathmandu valley.
Experts had predicted weak monsoon for South Asian countries, including Nepal, for this year. The prediction of below-normal rainfall was disclosed by international weather experts during the recently held weather forum in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Nepal has been a regular participant of the forum for the last six years. According to experts, formation of El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean is the reason behind the weak monsoon in the region.
"El Nino is one of the major reasons behind this dry monsoon in Nepal. Rise in temperature above the Pacific Ocean helped change the direction of wind and its impact was observed above the Indian Ocean. This ultimately affected the development of monsoon clouds that ends in Nepal every year," said Pratibha.
MFD considers an average of 1400 mm of rainfall across the country as standard monsoon rainfall.
"We still have two months before the monsoon finally ends. Let us be positive. Who knows we might see rainfalls heavy enough to meet the standards over the next two months," said Pratibha.
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